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alstry (35.17)

Depressions spreading around the World

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February 09, 2009 – Comments (8)

The generally accepted definition of a Depression is a 10% decline in GDP.  Alstrynomic's chief prognosticator Alstry has been calling for a world wide depression for some time.  It appears that more and more nations around the world are officially entering into a Depression.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Latvia's gross domestic product contracted by 10.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2008, the country's central statistical bureau reported Monday. The data was much worse than market expectations of a 7% decline. "This is more bad news for Latvia and we maintain that the situation is extremely critical," said analysts at Danske Bank. "Caution is still very much advised in the Latvian markets. We might also see negative spillover to the Swedish markets."

As the depression contagion spreads, expect oil prices to crash, the dollar to strengthen, and who knows what gold will do?  I know there are a lot of really smart people that don't agree with Alstrynomics, you know the type, guys who brag that their IQs are a few standard deviatioins beyond the rest of us regular folk, or others that went to Harvard or some other pedigree school that are so full of themselves that they can't see what is going on around them.

For us regular folk, it is easy to see....when too many people, business, and cities borrow too much money to keep themselves going....when they can't borrow any more, they can't buy much more and things crash if too many did it.  Guess what......much of America and the rest of the world enjoyed the party........Its OK, after the crash, we level out and stabilize...and those with cash who didn't over leverage can take advantage of deals.

You don't need to be really smart or have a Harvard degree to see it....actually any Fool can.....My suggestion....sit back, relax, keep on doing what you are doing, play with your family, party hard, keep the faith if the faith is what you keep, and stop looking for Heros to get you out of this....it too will pass and all will be fine.

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 09, 2009 at 5:19 PM, alstry (35.17) wrote:

PAYCUTS EVERYWHERE!!!!!

Cities, States, Businesses, and Self Employed are suffering and/or imposing wage cuts.....

General Motors Corp., racing to meet U.S. conditions to keep $13.4 billion in government loans, will include pay cuts for salaried employees in a restructuring plan to be submitted Feb. 17, people familiar with the plan said.

The pay cuts will be in addition to firings of thousands of salaried workers required to cut expenses as the largest U.S.- based automaker tries to win concessions from bondholders, labor unions and dealers, the people said, who asked not to be identified because the plans haven’t been announced.

Widespread wage cuts happen in Depressions not Recessions...and let me tell you...wages are being cut all over the place.... any Fool should see it.

If you are prepared...things will be fine.  Alstrynomics is all about preparation (learned the hard way).  Since chance favors the prepared mind, you shouldn't mind being prepared.

Never fear when Alstrynomics is here.....

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#2) On February 09, 2009 at 5:26 PM, RonChapmanJr (89.98) wrote:

you may not have noticed, but no one cares what you think anymore. 

did you take the bet with donnernv or did you chicken out?

again, why do you keep referencing me and everday?

peace,

ron

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#3) On February 09, 2009 at 5:35 PM, RonChapmanJr (89.98) wrote:

sorry, posted here without going back and checking that you keep avoiding donnernv's bet.  at first you said you would man up if he broke 0 and now you've increased it to 500 points.  i see the trend here...

and you are lying.  you didnt start including the standard deviation stuff till everyday wrote about it and you didnt start including harvard in your posts till i talked about going there.  

as long as you are having fun alienating the few people who cared about your thoughts.

peace,

ron 

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#4) On February 09, 2009 at 5:39 PM, alstry (35.17) wrote:

Ron,

You called me liar...that hurts me a lot because integrity is a key aspect of Alstrynomics.

Could you give me one single example where Alstry has lied....just one...one little baby example...only one...you do not need to provide any more.

For a guy that went to Harvard like yourself...that should be relatively easy since you just accused me of it less than a few minutes ago.

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#5) On February 09, 2009 at 6:40 PM, Bupp (28.40) wrote:

Alstry,

Your blog is lame and you are full of yourself.

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#6) On February 09, 2009 at 7:03 PM, jszoke01 (23.59) wrote:

I'm a fan of Alstry.  If anything, a different line of thought to consider. 

 

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#7) On February 09, 2009 at 9:50 PM, schlottman (< 20) wrote:

Alstry,

If you ever feel your message falls on deaf ears check out this video of Nouriel Roubini and Nassim Taleb talking to the CNBS crowd.  Even at this point in the game the CNBS'ers can't stop themselves from pumping a turn around story when they are told their is no Santa Claus.

A few of my favorite WTF moments -

CNBC gets into a frenzy over a market bottom call after noting the popularity of these two???  WTF

They ask Rubini where he would advise you invest your money if you were investing for your childs college education and what investments he is holding? WTF

Putting Roubini and Taleb in a screen shot with the "Turning the Corner" segment title across the bottom.  Kind of reminds me of "Mission Accomplished".  WTF

For talking about the economy all day long how can CNBS employ these people who really don't seem to understand the situation?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1027496846

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#8) On February 09, 2009 at 9:51 PM, nuf2bdangrus (< 20) wrote:

Assault a man's ideas...not his integrity or character.  If someone posts things you don;t agree on, ignore them.  I like Alstry and his detractors, because they both post cogent ideas.  They may or may not be right at different times.  Gee, look where we were a year ago when Uncle Ben assured us that this was "contained".  Oh, that was about 7 trillion dollars ago

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