Collin757 (< 20)

Did you survive June? BlueCap report and more rantings....

July 01, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: DRYS , PDO , RIMM

First the monthly report:

June 2008 BlueCap Hedge Fund (v 2.x Momentum) Report --

Inception Feb 4th, 2008 

Dow Jones Start Value - Close on May 30th: 12638
Dow Jones Close Value - Close on June 30th: 11350
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Dow Jones June Performance...... (10.19)

BlueCap June Performance........ 3.63

BlueCap Positive Days............ 11/21 - 52.38%
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Dow Jones Since BC Inception..(10.93)

BlueCap Since Inception........... 16.22   61/101 days positive 4/5 months positive

Current Long/Short............... 277/22
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Manager Notes  "We Survived June"
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June was a horrible month for the DOW but BC survived positive due to Oil exposure and good short performance.  In Late June the DOW dropped heavily and even Oil/Energy stocks took some losses. Midmonth BC had run up to a high of 17.74 to date, and had had a streak of 5 plus days in a row from the 13th to the 19th.  An Oil bubble bursting would hurt BC in July but BC has accumulated many non Oil related stocks and should not go negative.  A big drop in the DOW would also hurt but is countered by apx. 1/10th short exposure and Oil.

July Plans
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BC is live with IB, about 1/2 of picks bought in apx. $150 slices.  Still down but at least submerged in the system. 

A taking profit Mod has been added to the system.

BlueCap MBT, a combination of BC World and an undisclosed market timing system needs to be
coded and backtested.  Initial manual results are very promising.

*Still on Hold While BC World is fine tuned*

Side Notes
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I've been pretty lazy with doing more coding on BC, need to get back in gear.

The paramaterization needs to be done on the main screen, IE BC World, and then develop a system within that screen, which is problematic as the simulation of a BC type system takes a couple hours.
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Collin Smythe - CEO
BlueCap Investments
yahoo IM : c_jamz
  

 Begin random useless stream:

You know what I'm talking about....on TV when they are like 'clear!' *zap*....I forgot the name of those things...well, the market has been getting jolted by those and it aint working, the market doesnt have the bounce it has had the previous months of this year after big down days.  9 of the last 12 market days have been down, and the up days(including today) were really wimpy.  I haven't seen the market act like this all year, it seems to me that now the verdict is in and the area of least resistance is NOT up, so the only question is the market going to go up a smidgin, sideways, or down.  My shorts that IB got rid of could really have helped me the past 3 days...but whatever, I'll get them back Wednesday when I'm able to buy again.  The danger is if the market really starts going down like more than 75 points today, even oil stocks, which are kind of my market down hedge right now, will go down.  I dont mean to demean the experience, but I read someone mad because they had lost 30$ a year because they went with a broker that was taking fees/etc, not investing right, and let me tell you that is a cheap lesson to learn you should manage your own $$.  I lost 80% of my original stake, and this guy is complaining about $30 of his 25k each year?  Cmon dude, that aint loss, I mean I know it's all relative, but how far can you stretch the relativity rubber band.  I never trusted anyone but myself with my $$, the problem was I trusted myself too much....but whatever. 

I feel safer, and I can sleep better at night now knowing I'm diversified(and soon to be hedged), even though I know I'll make money alot slower.

I feel like giving a little gem of wisdom back to the CAPS community I will tell you this:....Winners win, Losers lose(Stocks/Companies that is).  Think about that.  Why should I short a good stock/company?  Why should I long a bad company/stock?  The answer is never, always go with the tide...I don't care how outrageously high you think the PE of a stock is, someone is buying it, it's all a big game, but the underlying element is a good company, why risk shorting it?  And vice versa, you get the picture.  Not to say that people dont make $$ longing bad companies or shorting good ones, just not me, I don't have the talent, you might, but the odds are you dont.  Think about it like this, you can be wrong in 2 ways when you do that, you're already wrong about the company, because you're shorting a good company, and you can also be wrong with the other thing called the price you shorted it at, and it kept going up.  When you short a BAD company, well you're already right on one, you start out with 1 out of 2 correct, so you can only be wrong about the price. 

People want to be heroes and short RIMM,FSLR,AAPL cause it's too expensive, well so are Bentleys but people keep buying them.  Also dont short stocks that are in hot industries, I dont care how crappy you think they are, for example DRYS, I see alot of top players losing alot of score on DRYS, but shipping has been hot for a long time.  Look at pyramid oil(PDO), everyone wants to short that thing but it keeps going up lolz.

Just my 2 cents as one of the top Fake-O trader players.