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Did you think I was kidding? Or maybe you think all of this is just a coincidence...

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May 25, 2011 – Comments (18) | RELATED TICKERS: S , ZLC.DL

Back in December of 2010, in the post ZLC, you piece of junk I told you about ZLC's (Zales) incredible performance (+145%) ever since chimpcontest #2 had ended, three months before.

Why I told you about it? Because ZLC was my pick for chimpcontest #2, and I did embarasingly poorly with it. 

At that time, I also tried to make a point that I wasn't really wrong about ZLC: It's just that chimpcontest ended at the wrong time (there is just no way that my timing was bad).

In comment #6 of the same post, I even suggested that chimpcontest's wrong timing most likely means that one should invest in S (Sprint) as soon as chimpcontest #3 ends (as S was my pick for chimpcontest #3).

And do you know what happened?

Chimpcontest #3 ended on February 3, 2011, when Sprint was at $4.35. Today, Sprint is at $5.92, which is a nice 36% gain from it's $4.35 price.

Now, I know many of you think 36% gain in 3.5 months is nothing spectacular, but when you take into account that S&P500's return during the same time is less than 1% (pretty much flat), then I think 36% looks a whole much better (p.s. I think even Silver did worse than +36% in the last 3.5 months).

So what do you think?

Coincidence?

18 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 25, 2011 at 1:43 PM, dragonLZ (99.36) wrote:

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#2) On May 25, 2011 at 1:50 PM, dragonLZ (99.36) wrote:

Btw., Zales (ZLC) is up 18% today, and is currently at $5.20.

 

That's +204% return since chimpcontest #2 ended in September of 2010...

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#3) On May 25, 2011 at 1:53 PM, Nickalisk (51.65) wrote:

Keep em coming.  I'll throw some spece money on the next "pick" you write about.

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#4) On May 25, 2011 at 1:59 PM, dragonLZ (99.36) wrote:

For the smart Fools who are already trying to figure out which stock was my pick for chimpcontest #4, let me just say that I will double my position in MAG as soon as chimpcontest #4 is over...  :)

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#5) On May 25, 2011 at 2:04 PM, miteycasey (30.15) wrote:

01/04/11 ZLC 5Y $3.97 $5.18
( +17.19%)-14.86%+0.77%+15.63 3/15/2011 @ $3.38

 

Look the few months before the chart you posted you'll see it losing 15%.

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#6) On May 25, 2011 at 4:03 PM, Euro247 (32.94) wrote:

Hey Dragon, how are you feeling about STEC these days?

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#7) On May 25, 2011 at 4:21 PM, dragonLZ (99.36) wrote:

First of all, I was just kidding.

(But I will for real put more money into MAG when chimpcontest ends. Yes, I'm that superstitious. I started position in MAG at $2. I also started position in Sprint at $5, right after Japan scare, and had to live through 15% one-day drop after the AT&T and T-mobile deal. Plan to sell at $6.50 for 30% gain).

 Nickalisk, once again, I was just kidding. DO NOT FOLLOW my picks. Seriously. As proven above, my picks are usually good, but my timing sucks big time. Not many people can take 30 - 50% drops, which happens very often to my picks.

 

 miteycasey, why do you think I said ZLC, you piece of junk? It dropped a lot when I was expecting it to go up, but then had an incredible run (which nobody can deny).

 

Euro247, I really do not follow STEC very closely and have no opinion on it at this time. Sorry I couldn't give you a better answer.

 

Good Luck All.

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#8) On May 26, 2011 at 10:58 AM, lemoneater (67.81) wrote:

I wouldn't invest in either Zales or Tiffany, because I think traditional jewelry stores have less of a moat than they used to in the past. Many people still want to see diamonds in person before they buy, and get the certificate in hand from a bricks-and-mortar jewelry store, but I don't think that applies as much to other gemstones. (I leave diamonds to the experts because there are many factors which affect value in which I'm not trained.)

When I was first married, my husband bought me some jewelry from Zales, but now he makes jewelry for me by getting the fittings from www.firemountain.com or even Hobby Lobby and getting cut gems from either gem shops near mines in NC or the web. It is neat to find your own gems. Having it cut costs, but not as much as buying a completely finished piece from a jewelry store.

Evidently all his years of making circuit boards gave him an amazing skill with wire and pliers.) With the right materials and tools, even a skilled hobbyist can venture to make gemstone jewelry.

By putting together the jewelry oneself, one cuts out a lot of the expense.  Of course it helps to have an eye for color, tactile skills, and time.

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#9) On May 26, 2011 at 11:11 AM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:

Lemon, who have you found on the web that you trust to cut stones? Being able to send them away for the work to be done would be great. My wife and I used to frequent a mine in the mountains, have a few stones that hold promise.

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#10) On May 26, 2011 at 12:24 PM, miteycasey (30.15) wrote:

Most companies have an amazing run up at some point.

you fail to mention the ones you miss, just like all other stock prognosticators and fortune tellers.

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#11) On May 26, 2011 at 1:27 PM, lemoneater (67.81) wrote:

This is the family run business we've been to twice. They've gem cut amethysts and a garnet for us. The cabochon cut is less expensive and is great for malachite. From the time we found the stones to the finished gems which came in the mail it was about two weeks. 

http://www.jacksonholegemmine.com/gems.htm 

I'd email them for their current prices for cuts. (As I recall, the same cut is cheaper for an amethyst than it is for a garnet.) You get more carat for less cost because you are leaving out the middle man.  

 

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#12) On May 27, 2011 at 9:20 AM, lemoneater (67.81) wrote:

Hope that you have a great weekend, Dragon, I enjoy stopping by your blogs.

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#13) On May 27, 2011 at 9:51 AM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:

Lemon, thanks for the lead on the gem cutter. The one I have used in fine but refuses to work by mail. It is a hour and a half drive to the shop. I'd much rather ship the stone than deal with the drive.

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#14) On May 27, 2011 at 9:51 AM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:

Dragon, good job on the call.

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#15) On May 27, 2011 at 11:36 AM, lemoneater (67.81) wrote:

@ #13 I agree, mail is a more convenient option. Those scenic mountain roads take time to travel. (I hope that they can help you. They did the evaluation of the quality and type of cut in person for us since we were right there, but shipped the finished gems.)

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#16) On May 27, 2011 at 3:41 PM, dragonLZ (99.36) wrote:

Thanks Cato, but it wasn't really a good call.

My point was (jokingly): Do the opposite of what I say and you'll do alright...

Have a great Memorial Day weekend, Cato.

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#17) On May 27, 2011 at 3:45 PM, dragonLZ (99.36) wrote:

Hope that you have a great weekend, Dragon, I enjoy stopping by your blogs.

And I'm always happy seeing you stop by and commenting, lemoneater.

You too have a great Memorial Day weekend.

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#18) On May 27, 2011 at 3:53 PM, dragonLZ (99.36) wrote:

you fail to mention the ones you miss, just like all other stock prognosticators and fortune tellers.

 miteycasey, why are you so serious (acting so damn mysterious)?  :)  I said I was kidding (as I am now - click on the link to hear a great song).

I think we need to know how to have fun when investing.

Have a great Memorial Day weekend.

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