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XMFSinchiruna (26.54)

Digging Through the Heavy News Flow



February 26, 2012 – Comments (35)

 This is the busiest time of year for us mining investors. In order to remain well informed, we have a slew of annual reports to review, a barrage of updated resource estimates, and even a flood of other major developments as companies hurry to deliver news flow in advance of the big PDAC conference in Toronto.

Since I could never succeed in covering all this news flow simultaneously, I wanted to open up the floor to any questions or comments regarding particular developments that caught you attention recently.


First, let me share a few of the latest stories that I did have a chance to write-up:


Pilot Gold has reminded the market that its original spin-off portfolio warranted careful attention, as Haligaga in Turkey continues to take shape. The company's newly acquired asset in Nevada looks very sweet to me, and I'm excited to hold a major stake in this proven team's current venture.

“Our technical team carries forward Fronteer Gold’s in-depth, working knowledge of Long Canyon and our strategy in Nevada was to identify a project with the same attributes and exploration potential as Long Canyon,” says Dr. Moira Smith, Pilot Gold’s Chief Geologist and previously Fronteer Gold’s Chief Geologist for Nevada. “I believe Kinsley Mountain has the framework for discovery and a clear path to building a significant, high-quality deposit in the near-term.”

While we're busy keeping track of new developments, I believe its key to keep an eye on those that remain heavily anticipated so that we can benefit from potential stock catalysts thus generated. One of the events I've awaited for years is finally upon us, as Copper Fox Metals is due to release a feasibility study for the Shaft Creek project during this quarter. Particularly given the explorations success enjoyed since the last resource estimate came out, I perceive a strong potential for a meaningful pop. And even if the pop does not immediately come, the likely decision by Teck to proceed with an earn-in is sure to drive the stock. 

Meanwhile, my largest equity holding -- Alexandria Minerals -- expects to deliver its initial estimates for the Akasaba property imminently, and I am very hopeful for an overdue re-rate of the stock as its global resource jumps way past the million-ounce mark. I pluralize "estimates" because I think they'll end up releasing it in 2 parts: a near surface deposit conceived as a bulk-mineable zone, and the deeper portion conceived as an underground operation.


As fellow Fool Matt1344 pointed out...

Pretium Resources updated the resource on its Brucejack deposit, and it's clear Mr. Quartermain continues to deliver meaningful value creation here. I recently initiated a small position, and continue to do my homework with a view toward building the allocation. Sure would love a pullback to make that decision easier, but I'm not holding my breath.


Someone brought Gold Standard Ventures to my attention earlier last week; just in time for me to miss a major surge in the stock following a metrial high-grade exploration hit in Nevada's Carlin Trend. I have not completed my DD as yet, but my attention has been grabbed in dramatic fashion.

I'll be having dinner with their team in Toronto next week, and will continue to share my thoughts in the company as I learn more about it.


Golden Predator revealed a sweet intercept -- 68m at 5.96gpt -- at its Grew Creek property.

This remains just a small holding of mine, but I continue to watch the story unfold with interest. I have spread my Yukon allocation among several explorers to play the region's strong exploration potential in a fairly systematic way.


This is just a sampling of some of the recent or looming developments that I'm watching, but I'm curious to know which stories your watching most closely or that have you most excited. Along those lines, if any of you have specific companies you would like me to connect with at PDAC, or even specific questions for company management, now is the time to put in those requests.

Here's to another profitable year of investing in the miners and explorers, and to celebrating the power of collective intelligence.

35 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 26, 2012 at 4:25 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.54) wrote:

P.S. all typos courtesy of the iPad's questionable keyboard interface.

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#2) On February 26, 2012 at 8:30 PM, JiminyBillyBob (67.52) wrote:

Hi Christopher,

Since your last blog post on Cardero CDY in December 2011, has anything changed to make you more or less enthused about the company?  I've been attempting to dig into Cardero's story myself since I read your blog on it, but I was hoping you could share anything you've learned since then.


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#3) On February 26, 2012 at 10:08 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.54) wrote:

Hi Carl,

It's not a matter of learning more, because I've done all my homework on Cardero, and I know this company from top to bottom. But the gravy keeps pouring on, so I continue to accumulate.

The Ferro-Titanium resource for Longnose and Titac adds yet another feather in the cap. 

Trevali, their second largest equity holding, continues to execute (and perform) well.

I'll be interviewing the CEO at PDAC, and will share that interview here.

The share valuation, in my opinion, remains exceptional. 

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#4) On February 26, 2012 at 10:51 PM, JiminyBillyBob (67.52) wrote:

Christopher, thank you very much for the info.  I also did not know about your upcoming interview with the CEO.  I have to say it's an amazing service you provide.  I can hardly wait.

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#5) On February 27, 2012 at 12:13 AM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

SInch are you a shareholder of Treasury Metals (tml)  ?

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#6) On February 27, 2012 at 8:23 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.54) wrote:


I don't own it, but I thank you for the reminder. I looked it a good while back, before the Nov. 2011 resource estimate. It looks far more interesting this time around. Based on my understanding of the geology, looks like 2012 exploration could be fruitful.

One of their presentation slides reminded me to mention one stock that believe is best avoided: Trelawni Mining.

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#7) On February 27, 2012 at 9:08 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.54) wrote:

Although several people in the industry have characterized Colombia to me as too-swiftly avoided jurisdiction, I personally remain skittish toward it. 

With that said, Batero's release out this morning is a serious powerhouse of an initial estimate.

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#8) On February 27, 2012 at 10:06 AM, tmathe85 (< 20) wrote:


 Any thoughts on Sandstorm Gold? Maybe a new stream or 2 in 2012? I loaded up the truck a few months back

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#9) On February 27, 2012 at 10:12 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.54) wrote:


Solid company with strong potential. I own a few of the companies they have streams with, so they are quality operations. Silver Wheaton is already entrenched in my portfolio as my primary royalty allocation, so I Do not personally own Sandstorm... But there are times when I wish I did. 

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#10) On February 27, 2012 at 10:22 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.54) wrote:

The selloff in Batero's stock this morning is puzzling. The resource looked solid to me at first glance, but I haven't followed the story closely enough to know what sorts of expectations may have been priced in. I know someone who recently visited the mine, so I'll seek out a more informed perspective.

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#11) On February 27, 2012 at 10:29 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.54) wrote:

And by mine, I meant 'project'. :)

I need more coffee. 

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#12) On February 27, 2012 at 11:32 AM, johnybottom (< 20) wrote:

Alexandria also having a rough morning. Sinchiruna - almost all the miners you follow are in the americas. Do you have a watchlist of miners in the pacific or africa? Like someoen mentioned above, I get most of my starting points from your own research; but if you have a list of other miners not-so-closely followed I'd be glad to start some DD.

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#13) On February 27, 2012 at 11:39 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.54) wrote:

I don't have an in-between list. I either follow them, or I don't. True, though, I have focused primarily on assetsin the Americas, and my investment portfolio reflects that focus.

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#14) On February 27, 2012 at 11:42 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.54) wrote:

My glance at Batero's resource estimate was clearly pre-coffee, or maybe too soon after my glance at Treasury Metals, cause I failed to more how weak the grades are on Batero's resource. Between the crappy grade and the geopolitical risk, I don't consider Batero attractive.

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#15) On February 27, 2012 at 12:51 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Any pullback now with Alexandria is a gift... I'm looking to enter Treasury sometime this week. Also added to positions in PC Gold and Northern Tiger. It's only a matter of time before the explorers bounce back IMO. I've been researching all of them but Alexandria still looks like the cream of the crop.

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#16) On February 27, 2012 at 2:04 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.54) wrote:

SN, I'll be interviewing Agnico CEO Sean Boyd soon, and look forward to hearing his thoughts on Alexandria.

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#17) On February 27, 2012 at 2:20 PM, johnybottom (< 20) wrote:

I'm trolling for opinions on Detour gold. Production (hopefully) starting in the next 12 months, just finished multiple rounds of financing, sitting on 15.9 million oz of proven and probable reserves. $180/oz mkcap/proven reserves.

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#18) On February 27, 2012 at 5:22 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.54) wrote:

Detour is certainly a force to behold.

For valuation purposes, you'll want to use EV to reserves, not mcap. 

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#19) On February 28, 2012 at 10:41 AM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

any more info. you may have on Huldra is appreciated as there is not much out there. I'll be putting in a call to IR. I am trying to get a general sense of what to expect from the resource update they say will happen in 2012 and also if 2 mill ounces ag-eq production in 2012 is still possible as stated in the October presentation. This one looks interesting ...

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#20) On February 28, 2012 at 12:19 PM, silverminer (29.69) wrote:


Thanks for sharing your findings, as I will share mine after speaking with company management in Toronto. I agree it's a little more challenging to piece this story together than most on the basis of existing literature and filings, but maybe that in itself is a silver lining that gives homework-ready Fools access to a pre-breakout opportunity.

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#21) On February 28, 2012 at 2:00 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Another note - according to IR, They are targeting production from TM in Q2 2012: 

"The company is targeting production in the 2nd quarter of this year pending final permitting.   All of the required permitting for both mining and milling operations have been submitted and are under final review."

I will follow up once I learn more on the potential of the property.


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#22) On February 28, 2012 at 2:02 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:


-(Marketwire - Feb. 28, 2012) - Huldra Silver Inc. (TSX VENTURE:HDA.V - News) (the "Company" or "Huldra") is pleased to announce further sample results from the 10,000 tonne underground bulk sample program on its 100% owned Treasure Mountain Property. The samples from the seventh lift of the stope include 2918.3 g/tonne Ag, 24.2% Pb, 3.8% Zn, 5% Mn over 1.47m. The average grade, to date, of the 43 samples over the mined width are 911 g/tonne Ag, 5.62% Zn, 3.35% Mn, 6.75% Pb.

The Company is also pleased to announce that during the month of February 2012, 578,000 common share purchase warrants (the "Warrants") which were due to expire June 22, 2012 have been exercised at a price of $0.75 per share, and 1,500,000 Warrants which were due to expire December 22, 2012 have been exercised at a price of $0.75 per share, for a total of 2,078,000 Warrants exercised for gross proceeds to the Company of $1,558,500. The Warrants were issued in connection with non-brokered private placements previously announced in the Company's news release dated December 22, 2010.

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#23) On February 28, 2012 at 2:09 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

More Info on Huldra:

Fully Diluted 45,830,296

Debt - 8.8 million  (according to Pope & Company analyst report)

Management +Directors owns 13 percent

Sprott Asset Management owns 9.6 percent 

Coeur D’Alene Mines Corp owns 6.8 percent


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#24) On February 28, 2012 at 2:10 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

One more, again from the Pope * Company report:

Reasons to Buy HDA:

High value ore which can be developed at a minimum capital cost (~$10 M to $15 M) Funded through to production

Near term producer of 1 M T + Ag per year

Cash flow from production will be used to further de- velop the property

Excellent exploration potential for high grade silver and base metal mineralization

Leveraged exposure to silver

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#25) On February 28, 2012 at 2:26 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.54) wrote:

Also considered a strategic equity holding by Coeur!

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#26) On February 28, 2012 at 2:37 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Yup the more the dig the more I like. The share count is very low and the market cap is only 40 mill...

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#27) On February 28, 2012 at 2:56 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

And by the way, silver is up to $37 today... :-)

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#28) On February 28, 2012 at 5:01 PM, OHGtop10 (< 20) wrote:

I have never bought into buying gold or gold bearing stocks.  I always believed gold is pretty much useless and heavy.  After all you can’t eat gold.  Gold doesn’t keep you warm and you can’t build a house of gold or at least it is not a good idea. My belief was the only use for gold was as a barometer for the value of currencies and commodities that are actually useful. 


Recently, I have been watching “Gold Rush” on Discovery. I am not sure if any of you watch the show but it is quite interesting and entertaining.  The show is about small time Miner’s in Alaska.  What I learned from the show is that Gold is limited.  These guys have to move tons (literally) of material to find a few ounces of gold. 


Thesis 1.  If these semi-amateur gold miners can make some profits after making mistake after mistake and running into problem after problem, imagine how profitable professional miners with more money, experience and ability to research can be with gold above $1700.


Thesis 2.  Supply and demand.  I thought Natural gas would be an awesome investment two years ago but it hasn’t been.  After all, NG can keep you warm, and even with oil at $108 and gasoline near $4 it has not been a good investment because of the huge supply compared to demand.  NG and NG stocks will probably continue to underperform until an infrastructure to use and export NG is built up.  Watching, “Gold Rush” I realized how hard is to find gold.   The supply of gold is limited and the demand is consistent to increasing.   


Thesis 3.  The price of jr. miners have been going down as the price of gold has been going up.  I also like the fact that there has been little or no appreciation of the miners as they continue to find additional reserves.   


A picture is worth a thousand words.;range=1y;;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off


Concerns: because Gold is at a 52 week high the decrease in Gold prices will likely put pressure on these stocks.


As a newbie to gold mining stocks I Just started following TMFSinchiruna and have been very impressed with his research and found his blogs to be very helpful and informative.  So thank you very much Sinch!!! I have started small positions in CGR, BRD and  I am also looking into buying PPP but my funds are limited.  I think BRD has put in a bottom at 0.95 after there 15 million dollar offering but that they may also have limited upside in the next couple of months.  What do people here think is a better investment at this time; to buy PPP or buy a little more CGR, BRD, or in terms of risk vs. reward?

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#29) On February 28, 2012 at 6:48 PM, johnybottom (< 20) wrote:

I'm not familiar with CGR, but as far as the others go, you must realize that they are all at very different points in the gold discover -> production life-cycle. The earlier you invest in a company (in terms of this cycle) you are exposed to larger risks and potentially larger returns. 

 PPP is producing from a single mine - think revenue, cash flow, profit. All the groundwork invovled in environmental surveys, permits, groundwater studies, proving reserves, among others has largely been taken care of. 

ALXDF.PK is in the exploration phase. They own a wide array of properties and are studying them in depth (pun intended) primarily through core drilling.  There is still a very long way to go before the production horizon and there's no guarantee everything will work out as planned. 

 BRD has two operational mines at its Black Fox Complex, and some other properties I assume its trying to prove up. I don't own this company so I haven't researched it to the extent I have the other two here. 

That said, if I wasn't invested in any of these right now. I'd probably lean towards PPP - full disclosure this is my largest holding. I think the shares have been taken to the woodshed lately. I see a green day for every other miner and PPP red. They didn't quite meet expectations on ore grade for the 2011 H2 and this seems to have caused a pretty big hit to the price. 

Anyways those are my thoughts.  


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#30) On February 28, 2012 at 8:19 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

 Here's my initial "look"  at Huldra.

Sky   Pilot

Hope it  helps.

Official  Web  Link  Assistant  to Sinch

52wk Range:0.89 - 2.15     On    Feb. 26,  2012


Yahoo:   HUSIF.PK

US   Trading   symbol:    HUSIF

Coeur (CDE) owns 1.9 million shares (aprox 14%)

July 14, 2011 note 20 pg 30 form 10Q:

On July 14, 2011, the Company paid $2.0 million to purchase 1.9 million shares of Huldra Silver Inc., a near term silver producer in British Columbia at its Treasure Mountain Project. The purchase represents a 14.05% interest in Huldra Silver Inc

Plant on order ,ore stockpiled and set to start this winter.
Get some now (IMO)



#1 & #2 of Speedys top Silver Miners for 2012



Huldra Silver Provides Additional Drill Results from the 2011 Exploration Program at Treasure Mountain That Includes 1,565 Grams Per Tonne Ag over 1.2 Metres in Hole TM11-36 ** Huldra Silver Provides Bulk Sample Update for Treasure Mountain 2/8/12 **   2/8/12 Huldra Reports Manganese Bulk Sampling Results at Treasure Mountain

** 2/3/12 Huldra Silver announces amendments to the terms of the Craigmont Acquisiton agreements ** 1/20/12 Huldra Silver Announces Draw Down of Third Tranche of Credit Facility **

Huldra Silver Inc. Announces the Close of Two Non Brokered Private Placements for Gross Proceeds of $1,910,480 and Retention of Sequoia Partners Inc.


“The company is pleased to have Sprott Asset Management LP, on behalf of certain funds and managed accounts, participate in these private placements for in excess of $1 million dollars.”




Huldra Silver Receives Geochemistry Results Up to 124 Grams Per Tonne Silver



Huldra Silver Inc. Announces Entry Into Mill Purchase and Services Agreement


Huldra Silver Provides Additional Drill Results from the 2011 Exploration Program at Treasure Mountain That Includes 7,013 Grams Per Tonne Ag Over 1.37 Metres in Hole TM11-26 11/23/11



Treasure Mountain will employ dozens, according to Huldra





Huldra Silver Inc. to acquire Craigmont





Huldra Silver Inc. Announces the Close of Two Non Brokered Private Placements for Gross Proceeds of $1,910,480 and Retention of Sequoia Partners Inc.

“The company is pleased to have Sprott Asset Management LP, on behalf of certain funds and managed accounts, participate in these private placements for in excess of $1 million dollars.

The proceeds will be used to advance exploration and development of Huldra’s 100% owned Treasure Mountain Project and for working capital purposes. For more information visit the Company’s website at”



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#31) On February 29, 2012 at 7:19 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

Gold, silver rally to multimonth highs


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#32) On February 29, 2012 at 11:27 AM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

@OHG, I saw the first season of Gold Rush, I agree it's entertaining but you have to remember that these guys are pure amateurs, this is not how the professionals mine gold. It's one thing to mine gold, it's another to do it profitably - crazy how they spend $350k to mine 40k worth of gold.

Just remember that gold is money and always has been. You can't print it, it's rare, and yup, it takes a lot of effort to get it out of the ground.  I do however feel that gold (and silver) stocks are a better deal and will outperform going forward, especially the juniors and the explorers. They are generally high-risk, but with a careful selection you can do very well. My own personal portfolio of juniors, explorers and warrants (whole 'nother story) has returned 150 percent in 2010, 15 percent in 2011, and 30 percent so far in 2012. 

But the best is certainly yet to come... juniors and explorers are trading at LUDICROUS valuations as we speak and many juniors have projects that are set to come online very soon... the majors are going to need to grow their reserves and productions and guess where they will look for that? the Juniors and explorers.. they will pay big premiums for them (some already have been!). 

Best of luck! And I'm looking forward to seeing season 2 of Gold Rush, hopefully this time they actually get some freakin' gold out of the ground. 

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#33) On February 29, 2012 at 11:36 AM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

As for BRD and Alexandria they are among my top 5 holdings and AXZ is Sinch's top holding, both have a ton of potential going forward but are in different boats. BRD is a turnaround story in the making as Sinch would say (testing our patience very much) but they have a lot of gold there in the Black Fox mine and I am confident they can bounce back in 2012 and get it to 25k quarterly production and then make a decision on Goldfields...

Alexandria is an explorer in one of the best mining jurisdictions in the world and has backing from some of the finest in the business (Agnico and IAMGOLD) they have a heck of a lot potential in their properties. They will be releasing a resource on Akasaba in March so this one could jump. Technically more risky than BRD because they are a non-producer and they have a market cap currently under 20 mill.  Hope this helps.

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#34) On February 29, 2012 at 3:09 PM, johnybottom (< 20) wrote:

Cardero Completes Large Diameter Drill Program At Carbon Creek Metallurgical Coal Deposit Commences Detailed Coal Quality Analysis For Potential Off-Takers

Peru Iron Sands Project

After spending a significant period of time and considerable effort in trying to secure a joint venture partner for the Pampa el Toro Iron Sand project in Peru without success, the Company has determined to focus its full attention on the Carbon Creek Metallurgical Coal Project in British Columbia and the Sheini Hills Iron Ore Project in Ghana and has therefore terminated its option to acquire the subject iron sand concessions from Minera Ataspascas SA and relinquished the remaining 100% owned concessions to the Peruvian government.

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#35) On February 29, 2012 at 3:42 PM, johnybottom (< 20) wrote:

Looks like the market REALLY doesn't like that press release... down 11% today.... so far.

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