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Vet67to82 (< 20)

DJIA looking good for positive close



March 19, 2010 – Comments (4)

Review of DOW JONES INDU AVERAGE (DJIA)  as of 3/18/2010

( informational calculations only -  not a buy or sell recommendation )

(1) Candlesticks - prices closed higher than they opened, successive 3 white candles occurred in the last three days Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

(2) Moving averages ...DJIA  is above the 10 day (10632.79),  is above the 20 day (10.503.27), and above the 50 day (10397.04), and well above the 200 day  (9768.52)

(3) Momentum Indicators:
 - Stochastic Oscillator is 92.8756.  This is an overbought reading. 
 - Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 73.03.  This is where it usually tops.
  - Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is 150.This is an overbought reading.
  - The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its (9)  period signal line.  The last signal was a buy  22 period(s) ago.

(4) Chart Checkup: 
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are ranging ...  this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are " vulnerable "  to a correction towards 10,422.25.
The projected upper bound is: 11,050.03.
The projected lower bound is: 10,516.66.
The projected closing price is: 10,783.34. 

(5) Statistical info
Smoothed r-squared         0.841
Standard Error            57.673
Linear Regression Slope   21.627
Historical Volatility      0.087

The current peak of r-squared is less than the previous peak. This indicates weakness of the long term trend.The current slope of the close is positive moving higher indicating strength of the medium term uptrend.  The standard error is 57.673  At this level there is much lower than normal volatility around the current trend and traders appear in general agreement, allowing the underlying securities of the index to trend easily. The price appears to be following the regression slope well.


4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 19, 2010 at 12:56 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

Well ... the healthcare blitz is not sitting well with the market ... and items (3) and (4) above give adequate warning to watch out for Baaaaad news.

Today is also quadruple witching, when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire at the same time, which could spark volatility, and wild price swings, toward the end of trading. 3 PM 'till the close could cut the losses in half ... and even result in a surprise close to the upside ...

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#2) On March 20, 2010 at 12:15 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

  Sadly, the outlook for a positive close on Friday ... didn't work out.  Monthly,triple and quadruple witching days are not indicators of future market direction as the time limits forcing the closing of options and futures contracts have now ZEROED out those market influences ... leaving us to look to the Friday, April 16th 2010 expiration for rolled over positions, or position increases, whether puts, or calls for the NEXT bet on market direction.   

 Monday is a toss up, depending if there is a vote on the Healthcare Bill, and the outcome of that vote. 

 I agree, as far as, if we keep putting off healthcare reform into the future, the FIX , and the COST, will outweigh the benefits .... However, our Congress keeps spending money we don't have, mortgaging the USA future, and putting off MORE important issues like getting people back to work. 

Congress, and the President .. just don't have their PRIORITIES straight.        

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#3) On May 10, 2010 at 1:58 PM, Bad2dBone99 (< 20) wrote:

Previous +1 rec   :)   


 only once  :(

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#4) On May 10, 2010 at 1:58 PM, Bad2dBone99 (< 20) wrote:

Previous +1 rec   :)   


 only once  :(

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