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alstry (35.03)

Do CAPS players have a PULSE?????

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May 14, 2009 – Comments (12)

Those of you that do.....you know who you are.......

The rest of you....you never fail to amaze me how the masses can be collectively fooled...please excuse the pun.

The State of CA is running out of money.

The City of Los Angeles is running out of money.

Despite of the FACT that CA is the largest state in the nation, and LA is the largest city in the nation....if it were only those municipalities it would be one thing.....but practically every municipality, county, and state in the union is running short of funds.

These entities employ millions of people whose jobs will likely be impacted.

Our largest Auto Companies are running out of money.

Our Banks are running out of money.

Now our Hospitals and School Districts are running out of money.

Our Pension Funds are running out of money.

Think about it....practically everything around you is running of money or facing rapidly declining revenues. 

It is amazing how few of you appreciate the significance of over 600K people per week filing for unemployment benefits....if it was one or two weeks it would be one thing....or a month would be another...but it is week after week after week after week....and continuing as we enter the summer months where many of the traditionally seasonal workers are hired substantially reducing those requesting benefits.

I don't fault you....it is simply a by product of your conditioning and failure to question what is fed to you......

Right now the Mayor of LA states the following:

"The gravity of the fiscal emergency that we face is enormous"

Soon it will likely be practically every mayor in practically every city in the nation.  It will likely be practically every superintendent of practically every school district and practically every administrator of practically every hospital.  It is already the Governor of California and the governors of a number of other states.

Soon it will likely be your employer and your neighbors......soon it will be us all as fewer and fewer will be able to pay as more and more get infected with the FU virus........and at this point......having gone this far and spread so wide....I am not sure how any of us can prepare for what is coming????

As a result....go out and hang out with your family, party with your friends....and get ready for what will likely be something few of us have ever seen before......believe it or not...Alstry is optimistic.

 

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 14, 2009 at 3:57 PM, Schmacko (79.83) wrote:

New York City is the largest city in the nation....

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#2) On May 14, 2009 at 4:19 PM, MikeBobulinski (< 20) wrote:

I think you have covered practically all of the bases...

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#3) On May 14, 2009 at 4:33 PM, kfisherprotege (30.23) wrote:

Having no pulse and having ice in the veins are two entirely different things.  One is very un-Foolish and the other a necessity in this market.

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#4) On May 14, 2009 at 4:37 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

States and Cities do have to have balanced budgets, (unlike the Federal Government), but it's really not a problem.  States, City's, Federal Governments raise taxes.  The government prints money, banks have lots of money,  this causes inflation, the value of the dollar drops, people get raises, everyone is unhappy, but we all survive. WE continue to buy cheap foreign goods so they make money.  Our houses are worth more, we make more, so what if things cost more?   Not a problem. What you describe is no different from the 20+ similar economic cycles we have been through before.  Sure a Coke costs $1.10 now instead of $0.05, but we are still buying Cokes, Coke is making money, paying a dividend, employing people, and their stock will go up.

 

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#5) On May 14, 2009 at 4:54 PM, leohaas (35.73) wrote:

Can I give TSIF a rec for his/her response?

Alstry, get over yourself. If you are an optimist, I would never in my life want to meet a pessimist. At the very least, stop hitting the ? and ! keys more than once...

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#6) On May 14, 2009 at 5:10 PM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

If what TSIF actually happens.....half of America will likely starve to death. 

First of all, cities and states can't raise taxes because fewer and fewer can  afford to pay taxes....it is an adverse feedback loop....the more they raise, the fewer can pay until no one is paying taxes.

Printing money actually means borrowing money in America...as we borrow more...fewer will be willing to lend....interest rates go up until we collectively can't afford to service debt and the economy collapses and no one is buying anything....

You may want to talk to any German who was alive in Germany in the early twenties for a good perspective........

Again...you Fools continue to amaze me.....

Tonight Nike announced it is laying off 5% of its workforce...a company supposedly doing very well....Seagate announced yesterday it was laying off 1100....analysts say it is just the beginning for Seagate...the Mayor of LA wants to cut thousands of workers......hospitals are firing workers by the hundreds...EACH all around the nation.

It is not about being optimistic or pessimistic...it is about being right and making the appropriate preparations....

GM bonds were sold to widows and orphans as supposedly safe investments...even if GM went bankrupt as they would be first in line to be paid off....well we just learned that isn't so and the government is taking away most of the value of the bonds and giving ownership to others.......now, practically everyone and everything everywhere is running out of money.....

What do you think the government is going to take from you????

And if you don't understand that "printing" money is borrowing money.....my suggestion is you go back to school and learn before you speak.....

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#7) On May 14, 2009 at 5:12 PM, UKIAHED (45.40) wrote:

Nice post TSIF.

Yep - California is off budget by $21.3 Billion - not the first time - we'll figure it out - we always have. You gotta live here to remember that this happens every other year.  Heck - when I worked for the state in the 80's - we did not get a paycheck for almost 2 months because they could not find the money - and yet we are still here - have not sunk into the Pacific yet :)

When the sky is falling - open your umbrella - it may just be the rain!

Ed 

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#8) On May 14, 2009 at 5:16 PM, jddubya (61.66) wrote:

"Those of you that do.....you know who you are......."

"The rest of you....you never fail to amaze me how the masses can be collectively fooled...please excuse the pun."

 "It is amazing how few of you appreciate the significance of over 600K people per week filing for unemployment benefits....if it was one or two weeks it would be one thing....or a month would be another...but it is week after week after week after week....and continuing as we enter the summer months where many of the traditionally seasonal workers are hired substantially reducing those requesting benefits."

"I don't fault you....it is simply a by product of your conditioning and failure to question what is fed to you......"

Seriously, you're preaching to an empty church.  For all of the 65k + CAPS members there are very few that blog, read blogs, or comment on blogs.

 You've spent so much of your time spreading the word but have failed to look around to see who's paying attention.  Not many, based on the number of members who actually reply to you AND disagree. 

 

Anyways, just my 2 cents on how your campaign to help others beat the market and win on caps is probably a waste of your time.

 Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying that you should stop blogging, rather, spend less time addressing the people who you feel "don't get it"

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#9) On May 14, 2009 at 5:29 PM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

Actually...I am addressing the people who do get it by highlighting those that don't.

It simply goes to delusional behavior and assists one to make better decisions based on a market that acts in a similar way.  In other words, it helps those that get it understand how the market can act so irrationally when the information seems so clear.

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#10) On May 14, 2009 at 5:29 PM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

Actually...I am addressing the people who do get it by highlighting those that don't.

It simply goes to delusional behavior and assists one to make better decisions based on a market that acts in a similar way.  In other words, it helps those that get it understand how the market can act so irrationally when the information seems so clear.

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#11) On May 14, 2009 at 7:26 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Leohaas, feel free to rec one of my blogs with a similar comment!  Or rec or add to  jddubya 's blog on Alstry(nomics) collection of wisdom. The supply is endless. http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=189535&t=01005856067663320649

 Alstry, I see that your upthumb on Yahoo was made a long time ago, but why are you recently bullish on Microsoft?

Under your scenerio no one will have working computers soon. Those that hold onto them won't have electricity to run them, or money to pay an internet provider.

Wake up Alstry!  This recession will put us back in the dark ages and the hybrid flus will be like the black plague!  Don't up thumb Microsoft!

Seagate and Nike were not efficient. There are other technology and other "shoe" companies hiring. I know several Seagate former employees quite happy at WD.  Seagate neglected to believe that the 2.5" disk drive was going to receive any volume so they didn't plan it. They are also in denial about the SSD business. Then they had quality issues that they responded to very poorly. Capitalism punishes the weak (when the government stays out of it).

 Nike is too dependent on drugged out superstars to trick people to pay more for the name than the shoe is worth.  Poor sponsors, bloated advertising, in a recession. Do you think that people still aren't buying quality shoes?  No, your right, they're all going to school barefoot.

Printing money causes inflation, inflation (though it lags) results in higher salaries and higher  value of goods and investments, and higher tax revenue. (though in reality they are equal in buying power).  Equilibrium will return after the idiot bankers speculated the economy into a shambles. Yes, you really can spend your way out of a recession.  Printing money is not borrowing. It is inflating. 

Regardless, I do agree that Gold and Bonds will be good to have when the inflation kicks in.

Good luck stuffing your mattress with cash that will deflate and canned goods that will probably get recalled for some reason, or at the least give you a back ache when you sleep on them. (Assuming your pessimism lets you sleep).

 

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#12) On May 14, 2009 at 9:42 PM, GyroDynasty (98.98) wrote:

We are aware.  Things die.  Things are born.  There's nothing new about any of this, and nothing to be frightened about.  Somethings are simply out of our control.  In time things will get better, stay the same, or get worse.  No surprises.  Waves come.  Waves go.  Go with the wave and you'll always be okay.  

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