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alstry (< 20)

Do Headlines Lie????

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May 03, 2009 – Comments (7)

MarketWatch:

Buffett: housing 'picking up'

vs.

Bloomberg:

Buffett Says He Sees ‘No Signs’ of Recovery in Housing, Retail

Same Man, Same Time, Same Subject.......

Why do you think Alstry tries to make you appreciate the true unemployment numbers? 

U3 unemployment data basically covers those people that have been unemployed for six months or less.....each new month it adds those people that lost their jobs in the most recent month and subtracts those that have been unemployed for over six months.

U6 data counts those that are still unemployed after six months.  It is why U6 figures are about twice as high as U3 numbers....there are millions of Americans who have been unable to find a job after being unemployed for six months but not counted in the reported figures.

This Friday, we will see what the Real Unemployment Number (as CNBC calls U6).....Alstry thinks it will be OVER 17%..........Alstry forecastes when the number reaches between 25-35%....we will be entering the Zombulation Zone....when a country economically morphs into Zombie Nation.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 03, 2009 at 9:34 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

People have been asking Alstry what is Zombulation???

Zombulation is the tranformation of a nation into becoming a Zombie Nation through a process called Zombification.

A Zombie Nation is when enough of a  country's economic systems slow or shut down to the point that so many become unemployed or underemployed that the nation's economy is effectively dead.

Based on deep analysis on the back of a napkin in a coffee shop, Alstry believes once real unemployment reaches 25-35%...America will enter the Zombulation phase where its economy will have a difficult time effectively sustaining such a large drag on the system.

The drag will manifest in areas such as skyrocketing foreclosures, rising crime rates, millions more going without health insurance, food shelves unable to meet demand, evaporating tax revenues, hundreds of thousands of retail stores shutting down, shopping malls becoming ghost towns, housing communities littered with debris, government services slowing to a trickle.....etc.....

By the way, we should see U3 unemployment peak only around 9 or 10% becuase that number only represents those Americans continuously unemployed for the past six months.  

In effect, U3 is a better measure of the current rate of contraction and not the unemployment rate. 

As time passes, millions and millions more Americans remain unemployed over six months.....and are never counted but have a profound influence on the Zombification process.  At a 10% U3 unemployment number....that means approximately 16 million Americans have beein unemployed for 6 months or less....but as each month passes...millions more will cross into the over 6 month bucket as fewer and fewer employers are hiring these days.

When unemployment numbers are released on Friday...we should see Real Unemployment exceed 17%...bringing us critically close to the 25% threshold number when the Zombification process initiates known as Zombulation.

 

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#2) On May 03, 2009 at 9:58 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

My point in this comment is that it appears that you have leaned towards the methods that mainstream media uses to sell the news... slightly misleading and a  little eye catching.  Many fool readers will skip reading the actual articles you've referenced because you do post some good factual stuff at times - but stuff like this.... c'mon, man.

Please, you have the power to sway peoples thinking - use it responsibly.    Below are my reasons for stating the above, should you choose to read further.

 

First, you  need to fix the Bloomberg link.

 

Second, YOUR headline is misleading.  I'm sure we will have differing opinions on what he actually said, however, the headline from Marketwatch reads:

"Buffett sees some housing market stabilization" - which is actually further explained in the article.

Here are Buffetts quotes from MarketWatch:

""In the last few months you've seen a real pickup in activity although at much lower prices," Buffett said, citing data from Berkshire's real estate brokerage business, which is one of the largest in the U.S.
 
In California, medium and lower priced homes -- under $750,000 -- have been selling more, although there hasn't been a bounce back in sale prices, Buffett explained.

"We see something close to stability at these much-reduced prices in the medium to lower part of the market," Buffett said.

Roughly 1.3 million households are created each year in the U.S., while about two million homes were being built a year during the recent boom, Buffett added.

At that rate, "you will run into trouble," he said.

Now housing starts are running at roughly 500,000 units a year, which means the excess inventory is being absorbed at a rate of about 700,000 to 800,000 units a year, Buffett said.

"We're going to eat up inventory. That may take a couple of years. When it gets done you will have stabilization in housing prices," Buffett predicted.

 "Then you will have demand for more housing starts."

 

The headline from Bloomberg reads "Buffett Says He Sees ‘No Signs’ of Recovery in Housing, Retail" which doesn't seem to contradict the Marketwatch reporting.

,,,and here's the quotes from Bloomberg:

 

“There’s no signs of any real bounce at all in anything to do with housing, retailing, all that sort of thing,” said Buffett, 78, in a Bloomberg Television interview before the Omaha, Nebraska-based company’s annual shareholder meeting today.

“You never know for sure, even if there’s a leveling off, which way the next move will be.”

 

 

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#3) On May 03, 2009 at 10:10 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

So which HEADLINE is more accurate???

Buffett: housing 'picking up'

or

Buffett Says He Sees ‘No Signs’ of Recovery in Housing

What about the definition or use of the term HEADLINE used in the title of my blog do you think is misleading????  I don't think I referenced the term BODY of the article once which you seem to focus upon.

By the way, thanks for the heads up on the link....here is the correct one:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&refer=home&sid=aGH_rFa9KgqY

The body of my blog deals with the Zombification of America.....you miss the real point.....as many are doing during this contraction......thanks for giving me clear evidentiary perspective on how so many can be fooled by something so obvious and keep on drinking the kool aid when millions are falling around them.

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#4) On May 03, 2009 at 10:29 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Another steep drop in payrolls expected in April 580,000 lost jobs would be the least bad in six months

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch

Last update: 10:13 a.m. EDT May 3, 2009

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. workers lost jobs at a devastating rate again in April, but the expected loss of 580,000 would be least bad since October, economists said.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Another-steep-drop-payrolls-expected/story.aspx?guid=%7BFC83EB15%2D5F51%2D4AE4%2D85A2%2D3496FDC76473%7D

Actually, over 2 million Americans lost their jobs in April.  the math is not very hard...EACH WEEK in April.....over 600K NEW Americans filed for INITIAL unemployment benfits.  There are 4 weeks in April......I will leave the rest up to you.

The 580K number is the NET of those new people who became unemployed in April minus, in part, those that remain unemployed 6 months or longer or working part time and NO LONGER CONSIDERED UNEMPLOYED!!!!!!!!

Remember, these numbers do NOT include the millions of licensed Real Estate Agents and other independent contractors who are suffering but not counted.

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#5) On May 03, 2009 at 11:28 AM, 119862913 wrote:

Alstry,

Instead of needing brains (like in the movies), these zombies need paper! I got a chuckle out of your comment about the coffee shop napkin...that's about all one needs at this point to see the zombification process. BTW, I'm not laughing too loudly as I may be joining their ranks should my job(s) evaporate. My net worth at present is just above the waterline.

MW

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#6) On May 03, 2009 at 1:03 PM, Rehydrogenated (33.36) wrote:

"In effect, U3 is a better measure of the current rate of contraction and not the unemployment rate. "

Agreed.

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#7) On May 03, 2009 at 2:43 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

ImOutta,

None of us should be laughing....even if your think you are financially secure, many of your neighbors won't be.....and even if a few of them think they are OK, it is likely your city, or county, or state will be in desperate need for money by the end of the summer.....and if you guys are the only ones with cash....

guess who they are coming after.

The Japanese got through their 10 years of Zombification because they had tons of savings and they were still exporting bringing in hard currency....now that Japan's exports are drying up....so is the revenue stream....and the nation is seeing a level of poverty that it has never seen before......and things are getting a lot worse a lot faster....

CAPs gives me an excellent perspective how the Fools think.....and that has been helpful in my trading.

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