# devoish (62.74)

## devoish's CAPS Blog

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November 29, 2008 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: MA , V , AXP

One of our most prolific posters, EPS100momentum shared a post about Black friday spending titled Mall customers turn into Mall Tourists instead. warning that Black friday sales may be a dissapointment.

I would like to share my response:

According to the link, 61% will not shop on Friday.

9% will spend \$500.00 or more. Assuming this poll represents 250mil US shoppers and none spend more than \$500. the total this 9% will spend is \$12,150,000,000.

14% will spend between \$100.00 and \$500.00. Assuming 14% of the same 250mil shoppers and the median of \$250. each this group will spend \$9,450,000,000.

16% say they will spend less than \$100. 16% of 250mil spending \$75. each comes to \$3,240,000,000

Total predicted spending equals \$24,840,000,000.

Last year according to Forrester Research, Black Friday spending was over 20billion, up 5% from the \$19bil spent on 2006.

Now I don't know that it is fair to assume that a poll of 61,000 people translates to 250mil shoppers. I also don't know how many said they would shop on Sat/Sun or go online on cyber Monday. If I was you, I would also check my math, and decide if you wanrt to agree with my assumptions. You may want to assume the first group will spend more than \$500 each.

My spending/population assumptions seem reasonable when the US population is in excess of 300mil, but I have not done the work to know what this poll actually represents.

But I do know it is 30 days from now until New Years, and 3 24 hour television news stations plus all other one hour news shows have to fill well over 48,000, 3 minute news storys every day, and the cheapest thing to do is take an online poll and report the results and it is even cheaper to report on someone elses poll. It is also cheaper not to look up historical data to put it in context for the reader.

I expect this "news" will be repeated in one form or another for the entire weekend, until we get actual data. And Mastercard will have that data first, including which retailer did the best. If I was MA, I would invest before I told. Since I am not MA, I am going to green thumb MA as their share price has dropped.

I sure hope no-one is trading just on incomplete "news".

For the record, Private Long Island retailer PC Richards sold out of Sony's blu-ray player at \$179.each in the store I went to get one from yesterday evening. In the time I walked the 50 yards from the parking space to the front door I saw 4, 45" or better wall mountable TV's leave the building. In the time I walked back to my car, I saw none. It was 9:00pm, and the salesman I spoke to was in a very good mood.

And that anecdotal story does not mean crap either. Especially on Long Island where we have traditionally lagged the Nation going in to recessions, lead coming out, and not felt them as deeply.

#1) On November 29, 2008 at 2:23 PM, ikkyu2 (98.19) wrote:

Long Island?  That's TARP money buying those TVs, boyo.

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#2) On November 29, 2008 at 4:18 PM, devoish (62.74) wrote:

Got to love NY City. It is like having a nice warm insulating banket keeping you safe.

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#3) On November 29, 2008 at 11:34 PM, Tastylunch (28.55) wrote:

Especially on Long Island where we have traditionally lagged the Nation going in to recessions, lead coming out, and not felt them as deeply.

I have a feeling that's not going to be true this time.

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