dragonLZ (84.36)

dragonLZ's CAPS Blog

Do you like playing with railcar toys...?

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March 28, 2011 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: GBX , ARII , RAIL

#27) On April 24, 2010 at 12:45 AM, atarigod (< 20) wrote:

What is the next sector on the move dragon?!

#29) On April 24, 2010 at 5:54 PM, dragonLZ (99.66) wrote:

Atari, I don't know.

The other day I wanted to say Railroads (GBX, RAIL, ARII,...), but now might not be the best time to get into those (UL just red-thumbed them).

I picked GBX on 3/31/10 (less than a month ago), and it's already up 60% since then.

However, I do think they will continue going up (eventually).

p.s.

I think there are still a lot of cheap banks. I consider that sector the most undervalued (based on technicals, not fundamentals).

__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ ___ ___ ____ ____ ____ _ _ _ _ _ _

I guess I thought the "eventually" moment has come at the end of August of 2010.

I picked GBX, a manufacturer of railcars, for my ValueDragonStyle portfolio on 8/30/10, when GBX was at $11.67.

Today, GBX closed at $29.67. That's 153% return in 7 months.

And what about the other two railcar manufacturers I mentioned in my comment a year ago?

On 8/30/10, ARII was at $10.91, today at $24.01. +120% return.

RAIL was at $22.52, today at $31.51. +40% return.

Here is a chart showing 1-yr returns for all three:

p.s.

Are you making sure your diet is rich in Omega-3 fatty acids... :)

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 28, 2011 at 5:23 PM, dragonLZ (84.36) wrote:

Stupid chart doesn't show the returns.

Let's see if it will work when I compare the 3 against S&P 500.

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#2) On March 30, 2011 at 1:04 AM, bothisellhigher (29.79) wrote:

Hi Dragon! If you've got time, what are your thoughts on the current ChimpContest leader CIGX relative to your "volume" indicator? I'm close to pulling the trigger on some August out of the money calls and would love to hear your comment.

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#3) On March 30, 2011 at 12:35 PM, dragonLZ (84.36) wrote:

bothisellhigher, in short, CIGX does not fit my Volume criteria.

However, I also have to tell you that doesn't really mean much.

There are many stocks that don't fit my volume criteria, but have been huge winners.

Then, there are stocks like PWER and DNN (I got into both a few months ago) that fit my volume criteria perfectly, but both are down 20-25% from my purchase price.

Basically, don't put too much importance in the volume criteria. I think it was a great tool to use at the beginning of this bull run, now not so much (or one has to wait much longer for things to start happening).

Definitely not useful for determining entry points.

If I were you, I'd ask motley animal why he picked it as he might know something the resto of us don't (or missed). Ask him also if the stock has already reached his target price or if he considered it just a short term trade.

Sorry I wasn't much help.

Good Luck!

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