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alstry (35.42)

Does Anyone Really Believe The Unemployment Rate?

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December 04, 2009 – Comments (32)

For the past month we have posted hundreds of news releases documenting hundreds of thousands of job cuts.....in addition, we have documented hundreds of companies and municipalities close open job positions making it more difficult for millions to get rehired.

Supporting the above is the evaporation of income tax receipts at the fastest rete in history resulting in the largest absolute dollar contraction ever.

Now our cities, counties, and states are running out of money due to declining income and growing burdens.  The Federal Government is facing a similar problem running a $2 Trillion dollar deficit.

Instead of reporting an unemployment rate which can easily be maniupulated.....don't you think a more relevant and accurate number would be to report monthly income tax recepits......in the same way companies report revenues????

Watch the dollar skyrocket today.......

Remember, being bullish on America doesn't mean being bulllish on the market.

Corus ( International ) - 1,700

Saugerties school district - 36 Possible Layoffs

Calhoun County - 5

ZymoGenetics - 52

MiddleBrook Pharmaceuticals - 145

Pfizer ( Pearl River Facility ) - 200

Abbott Laboratories - 80 Temp. Layoffs

Upper Deck Co. LLC - 33

The Motion Picture Home - 13

Energy Conversion Devices - 400

Natale's Men's Clothier

CD Connection in Jacksonville Beach

Publix Supermarkets at Memorial and Northfield

Nokia Closing Regent Flagship Store ( International )

Maternity Unit at Willingboro Hospital?

Standard Motors

Sunoco Plant in Westville Closed - 400 Jobs Lost

links from just this morning on dailyjobcuts.com

32 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 04, 2009 at 9:20 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

the dollar may rallly in short term..but this is NO TREND...its another short term manipulation by the "system" 

 

oh and incase you haven't seen my blog to you this morning..

good luck on thinking this reverse repo is going to really help a massive money supply increase issue out 

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#2) On December 04, 2009 at 9:28 AM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

Re:

Alstry said he was bullish on the dollar and bullish on America.....Alstry didn't say how long he was going to remain bullish......that is still up in the air.

Remember, being bullish on the dollar and America doesn't mean Alstry is bullish on the market.

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#3) On December 04, 2009 at 9:33 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

i hear you alstry, i undertsand that , but im still waiting to hear WHY you are bullish on the dollar?? 

 

is it because its technically bouncing off lows ?? i can understand that will grant you that

 

but what fundamentals can you argue?? are you going with the reverse repo? or the remod effort?? come on alstry..or is it the secret event??

 

 

 

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#4) On December 04, 2009 at 9:38 AM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

Re:

Focus on the real economy....the following is Buffet's favorite indicator:

Rail traffic continues to decline despite very easy year over year comps.  In a sure sign of tepid recovery, we continue to see improvement off the lows, but a still very meager traffic trends.  A recovering economy would have no problem overcoming the very low levels of last fall, but we actually continue to see declines.  Total intermodal traffic was down 6.4% versus 2008 and down a staggering 32% versus 2007.  The recovery on Wall Street might be real, but it’s certainly not real on Main Street as these numbers clearly show.

http://www.businessinsider.com/raill-traffic-still-negative-despite-really-easy-comps-2009-12

Easy comps......and still declining and last year had Thanksgiving????  And we are supposed to believe unemployment is declining???

Remember, being bullish the dollar and bullish America doesn't mean Alstry is bullish on the market.

Prepare for something few are prepared for.....for someone as spiritual as you.....that should not be too difficult.

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#5) On December 04, 2009 at 9:41 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

you are talking unemployment ..on that i have NO argurments with you

 

i am asking , begging could qualify as well, to address WHY is it you think the dollar should rebound...

 

 

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#6) On December 04, 2009 at 9:41 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

why are you dodging it?

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#7) On December 04, 2009 at 9:47 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

i can only conclude that you have no real answer then

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#8) On December 04, 2009 at 9:51 AM, alasker (< 20) wrote:

I think there are lots of explanations beyond the govrnment flat out lying.

We did enter the holiday season so there may be more seasonal workers- so we should wait to see what the unemployment is for the month of January.

Could be a lot of people whose time on unemployment expired. if we were losing 600,000 people a month and those people fell off the roles and now only 400,000- looks like unemployment is decreasing. 

Maybe the states ran out of money and fired all of the people at the unemployment office- so no new people could get on the roles.

Could be a lot of people getting fired from higher incomes are not seeking unemployment. I agree that gross income receipts is the better indicator.

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#9) On December 04, 2009 at 9:55 AM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

When  you value dollars, you value dollars relative to other currencies......ask yourself, relative to OTHER currencies, where does the dollar stand?

Vietnam just devauled....North Korea the same......Venezuela on deck???  Dubai just went bankrupt.....when the world is Dubai...who is the most Dubai?????

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#10) On December 04, 2009 at 9:59 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

alstry in case you haven't noticed you have spent the last 7 months of your life detailing and providing data to suggest that in fact we are worse off than dubai?? am i wrong??   b/c the truth is we are... dubai isn't america....america's demise once announced will be one of the most cataclismic events in the history of the world... dubai's?? well we had one bad trading day...

 

why dont you focus on what's really going on..you are letting what you want to happen skew what is going to happen 

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#11) On December 04, 2009 at 10:01 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

your buying into more manipulation as being the saving grace for dollar and america...and unless you are willing to let us in on whatever it is you think you know...then having this conversation without having an equal battleground to debate well is futile at best

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#12) On December 04, 2009 at 10:01 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

your buying into more manipulation as being the saving grace for dollar and america...and unless you are willing to let us in on whatever it is you think you know...then having this conversation without having an equal battleground to debate well is futile at best

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#13) On December 04, 2009 at 10:04 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

and when you value dollars, while it is true that its value is "relative" but relative to other currencies?? sure it is  relative to INSANE policies to debase it at all cost by your governement a private bank (FED) ?? IT SURE IS

 

 

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#14) On December 04, 2009 at 10:10 AM, alasker (< 20) wrote:

I think what Alstry is saying is that it is a race to the bottom. The American dollar is still the mostly widely accepted currency in commerce. So when countries with relatively weaker economies and whose currencies are not as widely accepted pursue our strategy of printing money- we do relatively better in the short term.

I'm with alstry on this one. You can try standing in the way of a freight train or adapt to the situation and come out relatively better than others.  

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#15) On December 04, 2009 at 10:13 AM, mawnck (< 20) wrote:

Perhaps alstry believes that the US $ is "too big to fail" in the eyes of the rest of the world.

Or maybe he just likes seeing Rebkong1 make 4 posts in a row. I know I do.

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#16) On December 04, 2009 at 10:19 AM, UKIAHED (36.06) wrote:

Instead of reporting an unemployment rate which can easily be maniupulated.....don't you think a more relevant and accurate number would be to report monthly income tax recepits......in the same way companies report revenues????

 

No it would not be more accurate and relevant.  We summarize income tax once a year - not monthly.  Granted some companes are on a fiscal year and may report in a different month that the majority.  

You would have to account for the varying estimated taxes, employees changing W-4s to game the system, employers withholding but not remitting, refunds, just to name a few issues.  Talk about gaming - the IRS reduced withholding this year to ensure that employees had more of thier paychecks to spend - this did not change the tax rate - but it did change the income tax reciepts...there will be quite a few returns this April with a lower refund than expected...

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#17) On December 04, 2009 at 10:31 AM, Varchild2008 (83.82) wrote:

This is just a Seasonal TEMPS +  Mass increase in Civilian Government hiring.. +7,000 Government jobs.... some of that is certainly the Military hiring of civilians to handle the logistics for the increase of troop levels in Afghanistan.

But... Even with the TEMPS and the Government Hires and so on November saw a net loss of 11,000 jobs.

Not sure how you go from 10.2% to 10%  (downward) when job losses increased by 11,000????  The MATH doesn't add up.

And knowing that none of this reflects what possible impact the jobs market will have when Pres. Bush's tax cuts expire...is a whole nother thing...

However.... I still contest that some recovery CAN occur simply because Share Prices have gone up for many stocks in the stock market...  Amazon for example is experiencing share price levels it never had.....

Dr. Pepper Snapple Group is going to hire 200 or so people in
Q1 2010....  There are some positives in the employment picture going forward ALSTRY.... So don't get too pessimistic and completely forget to look for the positives.

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#18) On December 04, 2009 at 10:34 AM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

But y/y the pattern would be consistent and comparable....just like corporations.

And we could break income, FICA, property, and sales taxes......

Not perfect... but better than what we got....

But at this point....it really doesn't matter.....the system is breaking down and the game is about to end.

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#19) On December 04, 2009 at 10:41 AM, UKIAHED (36.06) wrote:

For the past month we have posted hundreds of news releases documenting hundreds of thousands of job cuts....

Maybe you should post job gains along side losses - maybe get a clearer picture - maybe you could belive the numbers then...

a few examples:

Nov 19, 2009 ... 240 New Jobs Added at Charleston Call Center

Oct 31, 2009 ... Poe, Einstein come to life at library · Fabricating Jobs: Muscatine company has added 75 jobs to the local economy 

Kokomo, Indiana - RV company adding jobs in Miami Co.

EBay sold on Utah, adding more than 450 jobs

Nov 24, 2009 ... Fort Wayne Printing Company Adding Jobs.

More than half of US states added jobs in October

the number of healthcare workers rose by nearly 20,000. They broke down like this:
•    Ambulatory care services, 9,600
•    Physician offices, 6,200
•    Home health services, 3,600
•    Hospitals, 4,200
•    Nursing and residential care facilities, 5,800

Twitter Plans to Expand by Adding Jobs

Oct 8, 2009 ... Clarion, meanwhile, expects to add 43 jobs of its own, in addition to the 90 at Zero1, thanks to additional business,

 

Just the first few on my search (it took all of 30 seconds).  

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#20) On December 04, 2009 at 10:41 AM, awallejr (81.59) wrote:

Annoys you that unemployment rate went down huh alstry?  And to answer #17.  It went down because they revised Septemenber and October numbers downward as well.

This is good news in my opinion.  Yes it is still a loss but every month it becomes less and less until we eventually reach a point where it switches positive.  This is what happens in recessionary cycles.  

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#21) On December 04, 2009 at 10:45 AM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

Actually...I knew the unemployment rate was going to be better than expected...why do you think I am bullish the dollar????

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#22) On December 04, 2009 at 10:59 AM, alasker (< 20) wrote:

#19 Those job additions are great. Im studying to be a nurse since my sales are decreasing.

I would rather see more manufacturing jobs that produce things  increase. I know 20 years ago you could read articles about the transformation of america into the service or knowledge economy in magazines and classrooms. But value added by making something physical that other countries want is emensely more additive to our national output than education, government, or healthcare.

Healthcare is a cost and much of it is paid through taxes on income. Many of the manufacturers I represent have been laying off people all year in a trickle kind of way. There will probably be many closures of factories all together after the first of the year- people are counting on the holidays more than ever to survive. Anectotally from talking to competitors and factories the entire industry I work for is off 20-30% year over year.

By the way- anyone see the movie Idiocrasy. Terrible movie- awesome premise. Maybe Alstry's vision for the future.

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#23) On December 04, 2009 at 11:01 AM, UKIAHED (36.06) wrote:

But y/y the pattern would be consistent and comparable....just like corporations.

And we could break income, FICA, property, and sales taxes......

Not perfect... but better than what we got....

Alright, I'll play along.  Lets look at my state (California).  the November report is out (October numbers).  The summary is:

The State’s General Fund revenues beat estimates for the
month of October. Compared to the estimates in the
amended 2009-10 Budget Act enacted on July 28, 2009, total
General Fund revenues were up $285 million (7.1%). This
was driven by corporate taxes that were $248 million higher
(151.3%) than the estimates, and personal income tax
revenues that were $10.5 million above (0.4%) the estimates.
Sales taxes were $102 million below (-8.9%) the estimate.
The total for the three largest taxes was above the estimates
by $157 million (4.0%).

So - corp taxes are up by 151%.  Personal income tax up .4%.  Sales tax down 8.9%.  What are we to take away from this?  151% increase in taxes from Corporations - seems like the business world if flying high in California (yes, I am being sarcastic).

Now, you could use YOY numbers instead of estimates.  So:

Compared to October 2008, General Fund revenue in October
2009 was down $212 million (-4.7%). The total for the three
largest taxes was below 2008 levels by $200 million (-4.7%).
Personal income taxes came in $488 million below (-15.8%)
last October. However, corporate taxes were up $121 million
(41.7%) from last October, and sales taxes were up $168
million (19.1%).


Corporate taxes up 42.7% and sales tax up 19.1%!!!!!  Screw the recession - we are doing better than China!

There is a reason why we do not use any of these metrics to evaluate the economy.  They just move around too much...

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#24) On December 04, 2009 at 11:05 AM, UKIAHED (36.06) wrote:

Actually...I knew the unemployment rate was going to be better than expected...

You knew this and yet posted this:

And we are supposed to believe unemployment is declining???

Hmmm...

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#25) On December 04, 2009 at 11:21 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

"Actually...I knew the unemployment rate was going to be better than expected...why do you think I am bullish the dollar????"

LOL, HA HA HA HA HEE HEE HEE.  WOW big Al. 

You remind of the kid in grade school who always had to "one up" everyone.  And everyone knew that kid was totally full of sh*t.  

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#26) On December 04, 2009 at 11:28 AM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

There is a big difference between forecasting what the Fed is going to report based on its methodology of calculating and appreciating reality......

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#27) On December 04, 2009 at 11:37 AM, awallejr (81.59) wrote:

"Actually...I knew the unemployment rate was going to be better than expected...why do you think I am bullish the dollar????"

Yeahyou knew that's why you wrote this blog: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=302527&t=01002130057764754273

You are good at listing job losses yet never reprint job increases.  Google announced they will be hiring, for example (per their CEO).

Being bullish on America is a nice charade for your real agenda.  Being bullish on the dollar, ok that is a meaningful call.  Others see the dollar strengthening over time too. And that would explain your shorting of gold mining stocks.  Personally I wouldn't be surprised if the dollar did rally short term, but long term will depend to a large extent on what the FED does.

 

 

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#28) On December 04, 2009 at 11:41 AM, mawnck (< 20) wrote:

By the way- anyone see the movie Idiocracy. Terrible movie- awesome premise.

Heartily recommended by me as well (and you definitely have my permission to stop watching once the premise has been established).

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#29) On December 04, 2009 at 11:41 AM, Rasbold (91.67) wrote:

1-UP for you!

me-"When I was a kid, we used to wrestle alligators!"

Alstry-"When I was a kid, we used to screw alligators!"

 

sorry, dude, had to be done....

I judge what I see: And yesterday's trip into Sacramento tells me that construction is halted, traffic is way down and everything is for sale/lease/rent or option.

It sucks....and I am back in school myself!

 

May Your Dow Never Jones!

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#30) On December 04, 2009 at 12:35 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

"By the way- anyone see the movie Idiocracy. Terrible movie- awesome premise"

LOL, I've seen it.  Fit's Alstry's persona.  It's the way of the Alstry future.  Sooooon you will feel.

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#31) On December 04, 2009 at 12:50 PM, Rasbold (91.67) wrote:

Idiocracy!!

Hello, Mr. Not Sure!

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#32) On December 04, 2009 at 4:52 PM, awallejr (81.59) wrote:

I have to give "Idiocracy" a thumbs up myself.

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