Does anyone remember The Volume Story?
November 05, 2010
– Comments (11) |
RELATED TICKERS: LVS
, TCK
, HL
You know, the one that was posted on September 27, 2009 (a little over a year ago)?
Nobody?
Well, no problem, you can always see it by clicking here.
In short, the premise of The Volume Story was that stocks that go up on extremely high volume will continue to go up and outperform the market.
Sounds stupid, I know. Many people said so when the Volume Story was first posted. Short term maybe, but not long term.
Well, let's take a look at the returns of those 10 stocks since The Volume Story was first posted, just to see what happened:
LVS +195%
TCK +91%
HWD +63%
CENX +57%
FITB +36%
GCI +33%
CNO +20%
GNW +5%
BPOP +4%
GTN -14%
So, what do you think? Not great, but not too bad either, I'd say?
If you bought these 10 stocks back in Sept. 2009, only one of them would lose you money (GTN), and only 2 more of them (BPOP, GNW) would give you returns below market's return. In other words, you would have 90% real-life accuracy (9 out of 10 making you money) or 70% in CAPS accuracy (do you really care?).
However, keep in mind you would also have stocks that are a few cents away from being a 2-bagger (LVS) and a double (TCK). Not too shabby.
So those are returns for the original Volume Story stocks.
Now, for the ones of you who don't know, there was also Volume Story 2, which was posted on June 23, 2010. Basically, I was trying to see if the volume premise would still work so many months after the original one.
Here are returns for the 6 stocks listed in The Volume Story# 2:
HL +41%
GRT +27%
HT +24%
IAG +4%
ABCB -8%
CRUS -19%
Well, nothing like the Volume Story# 1, but I think we need to give this portfolio a little more time. It's way too early to draw any conclusions.
However, there is one thing I find very interesting about this portfolio.
When I first posted it, UltraLong commented that I by accident included one fundamentally strong stock in this portfolio - CRUS.
My reply was: Well, that pretty much tells me CRUS will be the worst performer of them all.
?!!???!!!!!!!
OK, that would be it for right now, folks. Of course, it goes without saying I'll keep you informed on the progress of these two portfolios from time to time. Who knows, maybe in a few months there will be Volume Story# 3?
Be good and don't forget to have fun when investing. Money is not everything.
Good Luck All!
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