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Does anyone think the market will be up tomorrow...



August 17, 2009 – Comments (15)

...after the 186 points drop for DOW today, NASDAQ losing 2.75%, and headlines like "DOW falls 186, economic fear hits hard (MSN), "Stocks have worst two-day drop of summer as selloff continues (Smartmoney)"?

I know I do...

15 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 17, 2009 at 9:33 PM, VegasMartin (< 20) wrote:

Good question, does this just create more fear in the marketplace or does this give investors who have been on the sidelines waiting to get in the opportunity to buy on the dip?  Some stocks have been so hard hit in the last day that they're back in their May or June levels.

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#2) On August 17, 2009 at 9:58 PM, LouieJunior (26.13) wrote:

The market shot up 50% in four months. Damn near straight up. Don't be so confident it will automatically continue rising. I fully expect it to pull back to its 200 dma -- or around 8500 later this month or next. May well cross it and go well below 8000 again.

June levels aren't a bargain compared to March levels so you may want to be patient.

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#3) On August 17, 2009 at 9:59 PM, FOCKEWOLF (< 20) wrote:

I believe theres a good chance. The DOW may have lost 2.75%, but some stocks lost 10%-15%, so this may present an good entry point to some buyers who waited to long. I purchased some shares of CGA yesterday and took advantage of the 15% drop in the stock. But I am still keeping some powder dry incase the bottom falls out.

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#4) On August 17, 2009 at 10:11 PM, StopLaughing (< 20) wrote:

Asia is up so far.

However, the big question is where and when does China turn. Once that happens I think every thing else will start to move higher.

I doubt very seriously that China will allow it's market to crash. However, they are trying to wring some inflation and speculation out. 

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#5) On August 17, 2009 at 10:12 PM, Tastylunch (28.61) wrote:

Mmmm I think whatever move is coming tomorrow is likley to be under 1% either way.

could be up tomorrow Lowe's is reporting and their eraings will likely look bettre than they should be since they are taking mkt share from Home Depot.

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#6) On August 17, 2009 at 10:20 PM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:

Coincidentally I placed some orders on Friday for purchases to be made this Tuesday. The drop is nice because it provides a unplanned sale price for them. I hope there is not a rebound before the purchases actually go through.

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#7) On August 17, 2009 at 10:23 PM, Imperial1964 (94.10) wrote:

I'm not saying the market is necessarily going higher than Thursday, but I do expect an up day tomorrow.  People will buy into such a large dip.

I wonder about Wednesday, though.

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#8) On August 17, 2009 at 11:07 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (98.49) wrote:

A -45% correction of the 55% gains we had in 5 months time is what past historical charts say will occur before the uptrend restarts. Yes Tuesday could turn to be a flat to slightely up day, suckering more people in before more big drops ahead.

The Institutional investors are the sole reason for the selloff, the retail just react to the selloff by selling for a loss once they start seeing their past 5 months gains dissappear. Report this comment
#9) On August 17, 2009 at 11:13 PM, Tastylunch (28.61) wrote:

Whoops just realized Lowe's actually reported today, well that probbaly adds fuel for  small bounce tmr then

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#10) On August 17, 2009 at 11:16 PM, EV38 (30.13) wrote:

I'll give a more philosophical answer to this - whether it goes up or down tomorrow makes no difference, unless you have call or put options expiring shortly. What is more important is that the seeds have be sown for the stock market, and more importantly to me, my holdings, to remain at this level or go upward in the next few months.

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#11) On August 18, 2009 at 12:02 AM, prose976 (< 20) wrote:

I believe the move is pretty basic.  "Bulls" can really take advantage of the bears here without handing the ball over.

There is alot of shorting and option action in the markets, but the downside is limited, otherwise investors withdraw completely from the market and we're left with a dry lake.  Too much hunting will frighten the deer away for too long.

Here's the recipe:

1.  Bulls take some money off the table

2.  Shares are put back on the market

3.  Short positions, limits, stops, etc. are triggered

4.  Overall market drops.

5.  Bears get their pullback and make some gains.

6.  Bulls buy back in at a discount. 

7.  Bulls continue to buy at each pullback.

8.  Repeat as often as fiscally possible.

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#12) On August 18, 2009 at 12:24 AM, awallejr (35.87) wrote:

Actually if you look at a chart since March, we haven't gone up parabolically.  We went up then had a sideways move and then correction before going up again.  And now we correct again.  This is what sustains rallies, not kills them.

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#13) On August 18, 2009 at 4:44 AM, checklist34 (98.60) wrote:

awall is right, absolutely right.  its hardly been a ramp up from the march lows.  We ramped, with only brief (but sometimes dramatic) corrections from the march lows to may 8th.  Then we tanked violently (the market wasn't so violently down, but a whole lot of names were) in may, rallied oddly and cyclically into june, before another violent tank into July, and then a ramp to the 1000 mark.  And now we're a couple of weeks into a sideways, maybe slightly doward period around this level. 

the market will be up tomororw I think, for hte simple reason that alot of why it tanked today was no doubt short positions being openend ... bears enboldened by last fridays drop and the long plateau at 1000.  shorts sometimes get squeezed...  


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#14) On August 18, 2009 at 4:46 AM, checklist34 (98.60) wrote:

IBD, you possibly underestimate retail investors and overestimate the team of bipolar monkeys

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#15) On August 18, 2009 at 4:57 PM, dragonLZ (91.38) wrote:

If you said market will be up today, you scored three points in my little green book. Everybody else, I wish you better luck next time...

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