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Does Total Caps Membership Mirror Market Sentiment?



March 12, 2009 – Comments (5)

I have been a member since late 2008. When I joined I belive MF membership was around 64,500.Overall membership seemd to hover in that area for several weeks, rose some then started to drop off as the market declined further. Over the last week or so I have noticed membership climbing which has coincided with a more bullish market. I have not personally seen membership numbers this high yet and they are increasing daily little by little. Today it's 65,691 Has anyone tracked this? Any TMF members wish to comment? We may need a new index to track coming market moves! Maybe MFIX like SPX for the S&P LOL It would be fun to chart this against the S&P if someone hasn't already done so. It would make an intuitive sense that as potential investors become more optimistic about the market that MF membership would grow but I have no idea how to verify this.



5 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 12, 2009 at 4:13 PM, RonChapmanJr (29.81) wrote:

Interesting idea.

I think I recall seeing it at 66,000+ a while back.  

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#2) On March 12, 2009 at 4:55 PM, anchak (99.89) wrote:

Very interesting thought fact if the Fool does do this analysis - my feeling is that they need to detrend it ( The generic trend has been up - I recall sub 50,000 when I joined) - and look at the ebb and flow -

My feeling of course - as you say - its a lagging indicator - I think of any major market turn.

Like I came - just after the 2007 crash began - and got hooked to people like Florida,Everyday,dwot, TDRH, Eldrehead,Demondoug etc...and made so many acquaintences along the way.



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#3) On March 13, 2009 at 3:23 PM, BenGriffin71 (27.65) wrote:

What is the mechanism for loss of members?

Is it a request to be removed?  If so, what of those who cease activity without such signaling action? 

I just checked the 'no picks in 90 days' charm to see if I could glean anything of use.  I noticed some frequent bloggers, so apparently a lack of stock picks and recent CAPs activity are not mutually exclusive.


My assumption has been that TMF is mining the heck out of the CAPS data (I hope they are at least); looking for early adopters signaling the beginning of a trend; later adopters signaling the approaching end of a trend; ringers, 'wrongers', and sector specialists.

I'd be very interested in having real time access to some of that.....probably not quite as interested as they are in keeping it confidential.

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#4) On March 13, 2009 at 4:43 PM, anchak (99.89) wrote:

Strange reason - I forgot to rec this blog......its a novel idea.

Actually this kind of analysis - if TMF shares publicly can be very insightful.....

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#5) On March 15, 2009 at 2:46 PM, Alex1963 (27.84) wrote:

Thank you for your comments (and recs)

I had hoped to hear from some TMF players. Maybe I'll email directly to the boss men.


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