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Doesn't it feel like 2009 all over again...?

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February 01, 2011 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: CPE , BYD , AGM

DOW up 148 points, Travel Centers (TA) up 105%, Silicon Motion (SIMO) up 34%, Manitowoc (MTW) up 27%, ...

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I don't know how many of you remember my post from October 12, 2010 Why this market keeps going higher (+ think May 2009), and what I said in that post about the market going forward from that point on.

Actually, I'm pretty sure not anyone remembers any of it.

So, to refresh your memory, here is the last part of that post (even though I suggest you click on the link above to see the whole post):

One more thing.

I'm very excited about the market and the future, which does scare me a little bit.

I think the correction that we had in May-August, gave us a chance to scoop up bargains not seen since April of 2009.

In other words, buying stocks in September of 2010 was like buying stocks in April of 2009 - you could buy a piece of crap on a stick and it would be up 50+% a month later.

Right now, I'd say prices are comparable to May of 2009. There are still plenty of bargains left (a lot of stocks 30-40% off their 52W highs), but everyone buying now is a month late (which doesn't mean too late, just that one has to be more careful and have more reasonable expectations).

And that would be it for this post, Fools.

Sit back and enjoy the ride to DOW 12,900... or so... :) 

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I also just wanted to give you an update on the three tickers I picked as related tickers for that post: CPE, BYD, and AGM.

Here is what I said about these 3 stocks in the comment #7 of that same post:

#7) On October 12, 2010 at 8:36 PM, dragonLZ (99.65) wrote:

I already see the bargains begin to disappear... (by zloj)

zloj, I think there are still many left.

For example, the 3 stocks / ticker symbols in this post.

I can't believe BYD, AGM, and CPE are still so cheap. All three 40% off their 52W highs... (but they did start to move)... 

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On Oct. 12 (less than 4 months ago), CPE was at $5.08, today at $9.22 (81.5% return), BYD was at $8.54, today at $11.24 (31.6% return), and AGM was at $13.43, today at $15.96 (18.8% return).

I don't know about you, but I think that's pretty good (even for 2009 :) ).

 

Good Luck Everybody, and as always, don't forget to have fun when investing. 

DLZ

 Disclaimer: Past performance is no indication of future results. Sometimes.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 02, 2011 at 12:37 AM, Momentum21 (87.88) wrote:

Good luck my friend. I am still really wishing I bought some FR...not sure that I made the most of the downturn last year but I will press onward and give thanks for a decent year since I completely whiffed on 2009.  

 

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#2) On February 02, 2011 at 10:06 AM, rofgile (99.31) wrote:

Some of these stocks have languished in 2010, and are only doing well now.  MTW reached a short-term overshoot of $16/share back in early 2010, then spent most of the year $9-12/share range.  - To a large extent, MTW has lagged CAT and TEX, and is only now starting to really make a move up.

Since 2009 march, CAT would have been the best pick (its been an almost consistently moving upwards stock, with fairly low volatility. and it paid a dividend).  Cranes are just barely hitting a trough in mid-end 2010, it appears.  TEX still looks ugly to me, but MTW might really shine in 2011 (finally! - I've been waiting on this one since 2008-2009!) 

 -Rof 

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#3) On February 03, 2011 at 12:03 AM, dragonLZ (99.41) wrote:

M21, Don't worry, there will be more opportunities ahead. I think it's just important not to lose too much during pullbacks (or by picking a real stinker), and the odds of winning in the long run are on our side. Belive it or not, there will be another March of 2009 in just a few years. Those are the times when one needs to buy and not worry about selling for a few years.

Good luck to you too, my friend.

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#4) On February 03, 2011 at 12:14 AM, dragonLZ (99.41) wrote:

rofgile, all I can tell you is I think MTW is a great stock.

I have it in my 100prcntAccuracy portfolio, which means it fits my two main criterias for the current bull market: 3-10 and 11-21. (Only 38 stocks fit both of these criterias).

Btw., 100prcnt portfolio was created in July of 2010, and MTW has already doubled since then.

Picking the right stock is just a half of the equation, picking it at the right time is the other (I say this as a reminder for myself too).

Good luck.

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#5) On February 12, 2011 at 2:26 PM, topsecret10 (< 20) wrote:

  Good call on the market to this point dragon....  lets see how It all plays out a little longer down the road :)   TS

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#6) On February 12, 2011 at 5:56 PM, dragonLZ (99.41) wrote:

TS, you know I'm always up for a challenge. :)

How about this one: Three years from now the market will be higher than where it's at today?

Good Luck.

p.s.

Sorry once again if I'm too harsh with my comments on your posts, but as you can see, I'm extremelly bullish while you seem to be extremely bearish.

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#7) On February 12, 2011 at 7:23 PM, topsecret10 (< 20) wrote:

dragonLZ (99.68) wrote: 

How about this one: Three years from now the market will be higher than where it's at today?     I would say that the odds are In your favor on that one.....  I am NOT Alstry... I believe In our country,but I just DO NOT have ANY confidence In the current administration.  I think that we will see another nice buying opportunity In the not so distant future,but longer term(3 to 5 years) I am In the bullish camp..... :)    TS

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