CapsAreBroken (99.72)

Doing well / The long run

January 06, 2010 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: FXP , SSG , FAZ

Day one close i was an All Star with 97% accuracy. Its one day so it doesn't prove a point but i have not had a down day yet.  

My problem is that people have figured out that the ultra shorts almost never go up in the long run and the ultra longs have to struggle to go up in the long run. I have seen a few people who just short the exact same ultra short and ultra long because they both preform worse than they should in the long run in order to follow 2X or 3X the market. 

I know they are not for long term investing i completely understand that they don't track the market at 2X more than day to day. The problem is that by shorting something thats almost sure to fail in the long run for the long run takes no skill. Its one thing if you short a few sectors for a day, week, or month but shorting every short indefinitely is a loophole in the caps system that is surtain to provide a good score. 

The only skill that what I'm doing takes is figuring out the rules for CAPS. Then understanding ultra shorts. Even if the ultra shorts did preform exactly 2X in the long run it would a problem because the market trends up much more than down. If everyone expected that the market would normally lose it would be no better than playing video poker. Some times you win it takes a little skill but in the end the house usually wins.  

Eddy