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investmentcafes (80.27)

Dollar vs Euro

Recs

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September 30, 2010 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: RSW , RCS , UUP

Hello World

What the heck.....

Whynot blog about Euro vs Dollar " Head and Shoulders Pattern"........

Should today's  1.3640 top,1 Min chart, thus creating the formation of the END of the Euro Trade..short term....alot will be affected...i am not going to claim the Eur vs Dollar Struggle compeletely over...as many GEo-Political situations are arising hourly,Daily and are as of this writing as yet to be seen or played out.....QE2..Strikes in Europe...GREECE,Ireland Debt problems..USA vs China Currency issues....and overcourse the " Momentum/Carry Trades"....

The Strong uptrend in the Euro since 9-11 area on 2/4HR charts indicate,to this humble observer,maybe be over ,SOON,...Computers,momentum and alot of Technical trading...should the Current uptrend be broken...my guess is the ISM Report USA,Friday will be the impetus for the lower leg of the EURO...breaking that uptrend..though many are calculating the ISM to be abit low,and QE2 a given,,,thus dollar weakenss...My Guess it's not as bad and the reality of the momentum trade is over,for now...and Euro vs Dollar retraces as Fibonacci would be observed....

To the Average investor Why are you "LONG-Only"...?

Theres many ways to be, not just diversified in LRG,MED Small..Growth vs Value but with various country and currencies....You have Health Insurance,hopefully,Car Insurance....LIFE Insurance....Home Insurance....ETC...but your Biggest retirement asset your IRA/401K isn't Insured ...??????    Are you a " FOOL"..?

Happy Trails

 PS My humble guess at Euro breaking number...1.3640....Date..Saturday October 2nd..time before noon...whew this tree limb is thin........

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 30, 2010 at 4:20 PM, investmentcafes (80.27) wrote:

I should have said..Right Shoulder Formation..not " TOP"....this might be the end of the Momentum trade as explained.SEE uptrend of EUR Vs Dol since 9-11.Take care,be prepared.

Happy Trails

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#2) On October 02, 2010 at 4:52 AM, ATH001 (22.31) wrote:

Hello ICafe,

Would you allow me to ask which currencies you believe to be safe? Would you recommend just moving into another currency, or is there another strategy that you would recommend?

Thanks for your thoughts.

Luis

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#3) On October 04, 2010 at 12:42 PM, investmentcafes (80.27) wrote:

Thank you LUIS for your interest and Question.

I would begin by saying theres no perfect " Currency"..

what you can do is,as many are, Hedge some portion of your porfolio vs upside/Downside risk.I'm not sure what your investment objectives are..Short-Term,Long-Term...days,weeks,motnhs,Years...ETc..And what portions of your portfolio are " LONG Only".?..Short..in Bonds..Stocks..Gold..Commodities...ETC...to set-up your portfolio should include a " TIME" objective...and parameters regarding lessening the inherent Risk of your protfolio....whther it be in LARGE,MED,SMALL,Cap stocks with a Balance to some sort of " Global" Diversification to offset the inherent risks of being only in one country....that will ACT as a Currency modifier or Risk Hedger to some degree as Each country trades or acts Differently depending on a variety of Global or country specific issues...Right....therefore to only want a Single currency to act as risk your hoping that currency will act as your hedge...which can be apart of an " Overall" Strategy but shouldn't be the only.

If you or anyone would go to fxstreet.com...you can see from 9-11....the { EUR vs DOL} chart on a 4HR,8HR chart has an exteneded up trend with defined buying at bottom of Channel...and 2-5 day up trend,some sellling then it's hits that uptrend..and has gone up again for a month,past the previous,recent top...if it breaks that bottom trend as I noted  @ 1.3640...a pullback will occur..to what I'll call up trend again but at a lower level..{ 1.3000 }  Daily chart area Uptrend...when support should be found.

I Cannot sir give invesment advice...I CAN point you into learning How to Chart,Trade..and what to look for or how to try as you asked find a good alternative to " Popular" Advice..that you may,maynot be recieving about a particular Currency.

What is happening currently is..Traders,Computers/Governments.." BIG" money uses these charts as You/Anyone can and does to Trade but maybe in your case find a point in time vs when you "BOUGHT" or will BUY Stock and Hedge,downside or the inherent risk of that Stock sector with an ETF,currency,or commodity play or Options that will possiblly make money should the markets correct further,depending on What market your in...and protect to some degree to the downsidde a currency or use a pair of currencies..long one/Short another  but sir Learn how to use Fibonacci levels...%R or any other pertinet Technical trading to offset whatever useful information,10k,8-k,insider trading that can be obtained freely over the internet or from the companies themselves.....

I hope this answers your question,thankyou for your time.

Happy Trails

 

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