April 08, 2010
– Comments (1)
Shorts scrambling like rats to cover their holes.
One of the reasons I remain constructive on the market is the persistent bearishness of members of the financial press e.g. members of thestreet (Doug Kass the lead), Minyanville, Barrons (abelson who loves to cite Rosenburg in Toronto) in the face of an economic recovery that is unfolding. The key focus for these guys is the continued weakness in the US housing market and persistent high unemployment and I suppose you could add the high deficits of sovereign nations.
I have been a bull since the beginning of last year. However, I must confess to being nervous about the economy - up until about a month ago. I believe that continued low interest rates, a recovery in business spending, pent up demand for consumer goods and governments around the world who are doing their utmost to get economic growth on a sustainable path will result in a recovery. This will drive corporate profits which in turn will drive higher employment - globally. Higher profits will mean higher tax revenues which will help reduce government deficits.
Of course, I am aware that my conviction is rising after the market has risen so much but I still think there are enough doubters out there that we will continue to climb that wall of worry. I fully expect a correction but I can't time it and I think the market will top out higher than its current level. We have not seen the animal spirits out in force which typically marks a market top.