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alstry (34.91)

Don't be MAD at Alstry

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March 03, 2009 – Comments (15)

Since coming to CAPs, few bloggers have given you such accurate information and extrapolated it into such actionable projections as Alstry.

Alstry has taken abuse, ridicule, and admonishment but never let it interfere with his mission to put out the facts.  In the short term, popularity plays, but in the long run, facts facillitate.  Few deliver the facts like Alstry and with such amazing consistentcy.

Basically, under the Alstrynomic theory of Concentric Contraction, the price of just about everything falls except the US Dollar.  So why get mad at Alstry when he tells you he LOVES cash.  Staying in cash when the market drops 80% is like getting a 500% return in your investment.

So Alstry calls a 500 drop and we drop over 400 points in two days....no big deal.  Alstrynomics is touching the pulse of the economy and right now the beat is weak.  There is not much we can do about it with the current policies coming out of Washington and the quantity of debt burdening our nation's people, businesses, and municipalities.

You want to get Alstry's attention, score more points.  One player tried to bet Alstry that he couldn't surpass the great TRDH.......he called Alstry names because Alstry refused to bet him a relatively small amount of money due to the illegal nature of the bet.....instead, Alstry was so confident of his goal.....that he offered to make a donation to St. Jude's Children's Hospital if he couldn't achieve it and suggested the same be done if he did.......right now Alstry is within 1000 points of achieving the goal....what do you think that other player is thinking to himself right now????

Why TRDH?  Because he ridiculed Alstry and said his blog wasn't an investment site.......and this is not an attack on TRDH......just a clarification for you misguided players on how to win in investing....and that is by scoring points......and only by scoring points.  NOT LOSING IS JUST LIKE SCORING......in some cases, even better....so staying in cash is actually an effective investment decision in a crashing market. 

Some of you may have learned that painfully by now.

If you are upset with Alstry because you don't like his style, don't get mad.....simply outscore him.....in the mean time, if he keeps outscoring you.....you may want to pay attention to what he has to say and what is going on in the world.....and if you don't, he doesn't care.....in the end we each play with our own cash register.

I wish there was someone like Alstry when I was a young investor.  It is very difficult to find someone competent who blogs the truth these days.  NOT IMPOSSIBLE.....just difficult.  Much of the stuff out there is fluff and misguided analysis.....and if that is what you like to watch and read, please don't let me stop you....it just brings more patsies to the poker table.

In the mean time the Institute of Alstrynomics is growing.  We just spent the weekend in Southern Florida to hash out where this mess is headed.  In the end, the consensus was we have a lot further to go down.

If you want to swim against an incoming tsunami, that is your perrogative.  Anyone calling a bottom right now should have their head examined.  There are lots of opportunities out there, but you have to sift through a lot of chaff to get to the wheat.  Few on CAPS said they were going to get to be rated 100 and actually got there.  Who is this Alstry fellow to be so brash and actually achieve so much success scoring points in such a short period of time while blogging day after day after day???

We now know who John Galt is......who is Alstry??????

But if you are Foolish enough to even attempt to call a bottom...you better start paying attention to headlines like this:

HSBC Cutting Consumer Lending Operations

About 6,100 people are employed in the HSBC Finance unit.

15 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 03, 2009 at 9:30 AM, beyondanonda (24.90) wrote:

Al,

Thanks for the daily update that the sky is falling, hadnt heard anything about that since last time I read a paper, turned on the tv or radio or talked to someone.  I would also be hiding my cash in tin can if I wasnt so busy making profits...

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#2) On March 03, 2009 at 9:32 AM, cmoney85 (20.52) wrote:

Hats off to ya Alstry,  I have been for the most part a bear since May, and got even stronger after finding your blogs in dec.  I've saved alot of money (even made a hair) by following your advice.  But what I want to say, on caps its alot harder to score points being a bear in bad times, than a bull in good times i beleive.  I hit 99 score for a short time, then fell back to 90+, and I can say its tough to get to 99+ and stay there, my hats off to anyone who is above 99.

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#3) On March 03, 2009 at 9:33 AM, killeru (< 20) wrote:

Alstry,

does the $SPX chart over the last 20 years count as a legitimate double top? (there is no volume). It has broken below the valley now, so if that counts and one follows TA we are going way waydown.

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#4) On March 03, 2009 at 11:31 AM, shffl (< 20) wrote:

alstry,

when you said that you are staying with cash, do you mean that you think the dollar will be strong? i would think that there is a possible t-bill/dollar bubble forming with the dollar rising in value despite all the money being pumped out and nations buying tbills. or am i mistaken?

myself i am into commodities such as gold, silver, and oil since i believe no matter where the economy is heading (be it inflation or deflation) there is a place for them. am i thinking about it too simply?

thanks

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#5) On March 03, 2009 at 11:38 AM, alstry (34.91) wrote:

100% cash or short would not be an unreasonable portfolio for the agressive investor right now.  If you are conservative, you should be 100% cash. 

Alstry has consistently called for a stronger dollar.

As far as the DOW....an additional 4000-5000 point drop should not surprise anyone.

Unemployment could eclipse numbers we saw in The Great Depressioin.

The above is nothing to fear....simply something to prepare!!!!!  As long as you are prepared, there will be lots of profits to be snared.

As Buffett says...he is beginning to feel like a mosquito in a nudist camp......

I just hope I can find a nudist camp for female super models.

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#6) On March 03, 2009 at 11:42 AM, torque63 (< 20) wrote:

If you were humble, I might be inclined to congratulate you every now and then. But alas...

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#7) On March 03, 2009 at 12:04 PM, alstry (34.91) wrote:

Alstry is not humble for a reason.  First, it attracts attention so maybe a few extra might hear even if they don't listen.  Second, it is an interesting social experiment.......to see how people react to someone who provides practically perfect data and projections who may not be popular against idiots who are pleasent who feed you kool-aid.

When I was a practicing attorney, I found some of the BEST surgeons to have the worst bedside manners.  At first I thought they were pricks and likely not as competent as those who seemed more socially adept.  In the end, I learned the arrogance was a personality trait because they were so focused on a very stressful profession, their personal behavior sacrificed because they didn't have the energy to do both well.

To say this was consistent all the time would be false.....but it happened enough to make me take notice.  What few physicians understand is that the leading cause for med mal suits is poor bedside manner.

At the outset, and since the blogging started....Alstry's only goal was to provide the best and most actionable information and score the most points.  He does it in an open and socratic environment at no cost to the reader.

There are a number of people who know the creator of Alstry and read this blog everyday.  They know that the personality of the creator and Alstry are very different.  There are lots of inside jokes that come up outside this forum.

Take your choice...do you want an arrogant surgeon who is the best cutter in the world, or do you want a happy Fool who gives you crappy advice.  In this scenario, I forced the choice on you......there is no room for negotiating just as there often wouldn't be in the hospital.

Quite frankly I don't care which you choose....my only goal from MY perspective is YOUR well being.  We are all free to make choices....I know how good I am.......please make your own decision on what is best for you.

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#8) On March 03, 2009 at 12:19 PM, shffl (< 20) wrote:

alstry,

im interested in your thoughts towards being 100% cash, would you be kind enough to explain?

i laughed when i read what buffett said about mosquito last night, a very good analogy of what informed investors would be doing right now. the buying spree of a lifetime is probably on its way!

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#9) On March 03, 2009 at 12:27 PM, njbrown113 (< 20) wrote:

Quit talking in the 3rd person you whack job

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#10) On March 03, 2009 at 12:45 PM, alstry (34.91) wrote:

Calling another a whack job is not a very nice thing to say.  I promise to not violate my promise to TMF Jake. 

Now are you going to let a "whack job" kick your backside....where does that put you on the scale??????

Alstry is laughing so hard that it is almost not even funny. 

My suggestion for your mental health is not to take a fictional blogging character so seriously.

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#11) On March 03, 2009 at 3:15 PM, ThoughtfulFool (< 20) wrote:

Yes, Alstry, name-calling is so unThoughtful.  We need a sense of humor around here.  ThoughtfulFool WAS also wondering, however, why Alstry is referring to himself in the third person. But ThoughtfulFool would have never meant any ill intention by saying that - but to only bring a smile to Alstry's face. :-)

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#12) On March 03, 2009 at 3:23 PM, alstry (34.91) wrote:

Because Alstry has taken on a life of his own. 

His creator just spent a weekend with the boys at the First Annual Institute of Alstrynomics conference.  We ate well, drank heavily in moderation, smoked cigars, and discussed business in the islands in a very festive and creative environment.  Much was learned from the gathering.

Without our buddy Alstry, such a great weekend would never have been possible.

Since Alstry lives in cyber world, the members of Institute of Alstrynomics bring him along in spirit to all of our gatherings.  Alstry is Alstry and he loves helping others with great information and solid advice.  What more needs to be said?

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#13) On March 03, 2009 at 4:35 PM, ThoughtfulFool (< 20) wrote:

Fool On, Alstry!

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#14) On March 03, 2009 at 5:12 PM, Seano67 (61.98) wrote:

Alstry, I hope you do win that bet and make your donation to St. Jude's Children's Hospital, as that is an eminently worthy recipient.

RE: people being 'mad' at you, Sean thinks there's probably a lot of Alstry jealousy at work there rather than anger at Alstry being proven right. Plus, Alstry kind of paints a target on his back by being such a loud smack-talker, so naturally there is going to be some resentment there.

Sean's not mad at Alstry for being correct- to the contrary, Sean thinks Alstrynomics is great and Sean is a dedicated follower of it. However, Sean takes issue with Alstry taking off to spend the weekend with his fat-cat buddies, eating, drinking, and partying it up- all the while things are going to hell in a handbasket, and Alstry's abandoning his devotees here on Caps. This is a critical time when this forum could really use Alstry's advice and leadership abilities, but noooooo, Alstry's out hobnobbing around with his corporate buddies and totally forgetting about us here. :o[

Alstrynomics is supposedly all about helping the little people, yeah right.  Sean is feeling quite disappointed with Alstry right now. :)

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#15) On March 03, 2009 at 5:47 PM, alstry (34.91) wrote:

Sean,

Every member of the Institute of Alstrynomics started from very modest means.  Fat Cats we are not...but a few of us could stand to shed a few pounds.

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