Dont follow TA, Fundamentals or your Gut
Instead of following TA, fundamentals or common sense - do the opposite.
For example, if you think our economy has some huge serious issues, that many of the nation's biggest banks are technically insolvent, - then go long and consider buying FAS/shorting FAZ.
Or if you think that unempoyment will continue to rise, BUY the market, buy retailers and especially BUY consumer discretioneries.
If you think the market is overvalued that this rally from the March 9 th low has come too far too fast, dont short the market - DOUBLE DOWN on the market.
On the other hand, if you think this market is going to continue to rise, you might want to consider shorting the market - at least thats what it feels like I should be doing.
It will take me some time to do the analysis on this, but I think the numbers will prove it to be true.
I am considering changing my Caps name to Mr Opposite.