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Quantemonics (98.80)

DOW 10,000 by January 2010 . . .

Recs

73

May 13, 2009 – Comments (36)

Everyone turned chicken today?  No doubt we were due for a classic sell the news event after the bank stress test announcement was bid into for over a month.

I will boldly go where no man has gone before....

Dow 10,000 very soon indeed, before January 2010 to be precise.  That's another 20%+ price appreciation from throwing darts on the long side the next 7 months, and a decent 60%+ gain from the March lows, when including dividends, for anyone willing to fight for themselves, their families and their country.

By the way, a new uptick rule for short selling will be unveiled in a matter of weeks, the global economy is turning higher this summer, banks and real estate companies are raising hundreds of billions in equity and refinancing their debt to successfully recapitalize, and the greatest motherlode of cash (earning zero percent) in human history is still waiting on the sidelines to buy stocks the next 6-12 months.  That wall of worry seems mighty steep this economic cycle from all the freaked-out bear commentary I hear on CNBC and my local tv station, and read in my local paper, on any and every mainstream stock market website and from all the winners on CAPS in early 2009, but heck I like challenges.

The vast majority of market timers on CAPS are bears right now, something like 4 to 1 by my count.  The market never obliges the herd for long spans of time.  From my perch in Virginia I would say buy any and all dips from here, both as a truly contrarian strategy vs. the herd predicting another big sell-off the next month or two (or just desiring one because they have missed the biggest bull upturn in modern history), and because you believe in America.

Let's now here comments from the peanut gallery >>>>>

-Thomas

36 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 13, 2009 at 5:51 PM, GenericMike (< 20) wrote:

I'm not a peanut, but I'll comment anyway.

 With rising unemployment, company earnings still falling, housing prices still falling, personal savings growing, and foreign countries continuing to revise their GDP downward, why do you think the DOW will hit 10,000 this year? Where do you see growth potential in our or any other Economy this year that would warrant that?

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#2) On May 13, 2009 at 5:52 PM, theMovement (85.13) wrote:

Thomas, you sir are correct!  US history is full of recessions and recoveries and we are in the midst of a recovery. 

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#3) On May 13, 2009 at 6:03 PM, goldminingXpert (29.67) wrote:

Noted in my file. I admire your bold call but am 95% confident you're wrong--and I'll be quite insolvent if you are actually right.

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#4) On May 13, 2009 at 6:36 PM, tonylogan1 (28.32) wrote:

I predict "bullmarketn09" will not be an active username by January 1, 2010

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#5) On May 13, 2009 at 6:45 PM, StatsGeek (29.43) wrote:

Dow 5000.

A massive wave of bankruptcies is inevitable and hasn't happened yet.  It's that simple, really.

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#6) On May 13, 2009 at 6:49 PM, jszoke01 (24.48) wrote:

LOL Tony at your less than bold prediction.

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#7) On May 13, 2009 at 6:51 PM, goldminingXpert (29.67) wrote:

StatsGeek, let the bulls have their dreams. Today was painful enough without hitting them with another 2x4 full of hard cold reality.

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#8) On May 13, 2009 at 7:00 PM, JGus (29.00) wrote:

Nice to hear from you, StatsGeek! It's been too long. I've been looking forward to your next blog post(s).

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#9) On May 13, 2009 at 7:24 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

a decent 60%+ gain from the March lows

ca. 55.28% from 6440.08 to 10000, but still "significant" ...
 

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#10) On May 13, 2009 at 7:38 PM, ChrisGraley (29.86) wrote:

I'm wondering how Commercial Real-Estate fits this prediction?

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#11) On May 13, 2009 at 7:46 PM, ozzfan1317 (78.68) wrote:

I think Dow 9000 for sure and Dow 10000 is possible for 2010. I will be buying as much as possible until then already 7% Positive this year.

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#12) On May 19, 2009 at 11:14 AM, richlongrun (86.56) wrote:

I think it is a bit early to predict. In general I agree. Traditionaly, recessions and the great depression have been times when our county has reinvested in itself. companies become more efficient by reducing labor costs and consolidating industries. Many talented people who become unemployed start their own companies. Although the mood of the country can be really low during these downturns, productivity typically increases greatly. However, a lot depends upon the political landscape. If politicians spend our money on social programs instead of infrastructure our economy will stagnate a long time. Another thing to take into consideration is our aging population, more immigration and longer work careers would help tremendously. As far as money sitting on the sidelines, everyone will have to invest somewhere or risk losing it to inflation. I am longterm bullish with an eye towards dividends presently. Good stocks are cheap. Why  risk money on speculative newest thing stocks at this time?

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#13) On May 19, 2009 at 11:21 AM, KallyBrown (< 20) wrote:

really?

I don't think so, here's why: http://top5stocks.blogspot.com

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#14) On June 01, 2009 at 1:44 PM, dmccartney (99.22) wrote:

Today the Dow hit 8700, and it was at 9000 in early January,so I think it's a good possibility to be at 10,000 by year end.  Remember it was up around 13,000 only a little over a year ago.  A Dow at 10,000 isn't exactly shooting for the stars. 

I think it's very realistic, but it may not happen by year end.  I'm guessing that it may take a year from the March bottom, so my prediction is hitting 10,000 by March of 2010. In the past when we've had recoveries from bear markets, the market has gone up an average of over 40% in the first year.  Because so much cash is sitting on the sidelines, it could easily be up 50 - 60% from the market bottom.  Therefore, a Dow at 10,000 by March 9, 2010 would be an increase of 54% over the bottom.  Very realistic.

 

 

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#15) On June 11, 2009 at 11:33 PM, rexlove (99.56) wrote:

Although I'm keeping some money on the sidelines for a minor pullback here - I think DOW 10,000 is realistic. There are a lot of positive signs in the economy - including earnings coming in above estimates, stabilizing home prices and rising commodity prices due to inventory being worked off. I've always kept a positive outlook and think we can see the economy turn around later in the year. As always the market is forward looking - so for you bears out there - you need to look to the future. Dont look at the current numbers.

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#16) On June 11, 2009 at 11:50 PM, StopLaughing (< 20) wrote:

The average recovery is 45% in the first year from the actual bottom. If you assume march is the bottom(I am pretty sure that it is) 10000 on the Dow is possible by next march.

However, the average return for the first month and first 3 months is predicting the Dow at much higher than 10000 by Christmas. 

Since this is a highly unusual drop and recovery who knows where this is going.  So far the run from the bottom thru the first month and 3 months seems to be following the traditional pattern. It looks unusual since the drop was so steep and long, however the recovery is V shaped and right on target for the 1 and 3 month norms.

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#17) On June 12, 2009 at 3:00 AM, goldminingXpert (29.67) wrote:

however the recovery is V shaped

And how many major bear markets have ended in V's. The correct answer is in the neighbourhood of zero.

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#18) On June 12, 2009 at 3:58 AM, kpointer1 (47.11) wrote:

however the recovery is V shaped

And how many major bear markets have ended in V's. The correct answer is in the neighbourhood of zero.

for the sake of my sanity and my wallet, let's assume a v shape here.

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#19) On June 12, 2009 at 4:01 AM, goldminingXpert (29.67) wrote:

for the sake of my sanity and my wallet, let's assume a v shape here.

Assuming that something that hasn't happened before (at least not to my knowledge) will happen this time is an...um...uh...um...dangerous thing to do.

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#20) On June 13, 2009 at 9:24 AM, kpointer1 (47.11) wrote:

all we can do is hope... pretty sure nothing that is going on right now has happened before. i'm gonna try to be an optimist for once haha.

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#21) On October 15, 2009 at 9:26 AM, Quantemonics (98.80) wrote:

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

Dow 10,000 nicely on schedule.

Now prepare for a bumpy ride and some tougher sledding the next month or two.

-TJ

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#22) On October 15, 2009 at 9:35 AM, pastordisaster (< 20) wrote:

lmao @ GMX

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#23) On October 15, 2009 at 9:36 AM, Quantemonics (98.80) wrote:

tonylogan  ... I predict "bullmarketn09" will not be an active username by January 1, 2010 ...

Great prediction, and more correct than incorrect, dear Watson.

goldminingX   ... Noted in my file. I admire your bold call but am 95% confident you're wrong--and I'll be quite insolvent if you are actually right ...

Hopefully you changed course with your real money.

I don't know anyone made rich betting against America and its proud, hard-working, well educated people.  You can steal a buck or two, one year out of every decade if you are lucky enough to nail a major bear market decline; but continuous short selling is the quickest route to financial ruin.

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#24) On October 15, 2009 at 5:34 PM, tonylogan1 (28.32) wrote:

lol... I stand by the accuracy of my prediction as stated, and fully acknowledge the accuracy of your call...

So, aside from just posting to brag.... mind throwing out your prediction for June or December 2010?

I need something to help me make money, not just feel bad for being wrong in the past.

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#25) On October 15, 2009 at 7:00 PM, rexlove (99.56) wrote:

Looks like we hit 10000 ahead of schedule. Nice call. I personally like to predict the S&P as a better indicator of the overall market. I think we may hit S&P 1290 by the end of the year especially if earnings continue to come in well.

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#26) On October 25, 2009 at 9:38 PM, d1david (29.40) wrote:

reluctently, i have to give me rec as you nailed it.

nice job

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#27) On October 25, 2009 at 10:38 PM, d1david (29.40) wrote:

"The vast majority of market timers on CAPS are bears right now, something like 4 to 1 by my count"

 what would you say the vast majority of market timers on CAPS are.. 4-1 bulls now?  if and when you think that happens, please post...either way, bulls or bears...

contrarian is the truly way to trade

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#28) On October 26, 2009 at 10:02 PM, Tastylunch (29.48) wrote:

did she say yes?

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#29) On October 27, 2009 at 1:26 AM, walt373 (99.86) wrote:

LOL! Go for it Lori Ann!

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#30) On October 27, 2009 at 8:25 AM, d1david (29.40) wrote:

how could she say no?  she can brag that she is engaged to the new caps champion... how  many chicks get to say that?

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#31) On October 27, 2009 at 3:33 PM, Mary953 (77.96) wrote:

WELL??? Was it a yes?

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#32) On October 27, 2009 at 8:59 PM, HooDaHeckNose (95.53) wrote:

A late rec and congratulations on a perfect call and being top fool. If there is a Lori Ann and you do want her to marry you, I hope she says yes.

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#33) On October 30, 2009 at 4:01 PM, jgknot (30.45) wrote:

Congrats, Top Fool.

i see you are holding short positions right now, is it based on fundamentals or technicals, how long you planning on holding?

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#34) On November 01, 2009 at 12:02 AM, smartSheep (99.81) wrote:

With rising unemployment, company earnings still falling, housing prices still falling, personal savings growing, and foreign countries continuing to revise their GDP downward, why do you think the DOW will hit 10,000 this year? Where do you see growth potential in our or any other Economy this year that would warrant that?

HA HA HA!! fOOLISH DOUBTER!!

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#35) On November 01, 2009 at 12:40 AM, Rasbold (90.46) wrote:

Nice work, you are one to follow.

 

May Your Dow Never Jones!

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#36) On December 01, 2009 at 7:04 PM, Bays (30.20) wrote:

Wow.... Great call, Tick

I'm impressed.  But remember to always stay humble or the market will kick your ass.

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