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DOW 9,000 or DOW 14,000? How abouth both...

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May 19, 2010 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: C , OME , BCK.DL2

Got this in my mail yesterday.

This guy, John Lansing sums up how I feel about this correction and the market in general. I mean, the guy has the exact same opinion I do. I said recently (and will post below) that this bull market can't continue until we have bears strongly believe they have complete control of this market (and that they will get it below the March 2009 lows).

So here is what Mr. Lansing says:

 

The May 4th scare, which saw the Dow drop nearly 1,000 points before recovering, was just the beginning of the big shakeout coming…

…before we begin a much happier climb to Dow 14,000.

I’ve been warning subscribers for several months now—even as we made a ton of money on the long-side of the market—a day of reckoning was drawing near.

My technical indicators — from volume tracking to chart patterns to wave analysis — all told me it would be brutal. And the worst is yet to come.

Buy-and-hold investors will be brutalized and shocked by just how low the market falls by late July. But nimble traders will make a lot of money now and later.

The Dow’s headed for 9,000 and you can either get run over OR go along for the ride.

Then celebrate the next huge wave back up

As I said, this correction will be brutal, but it will also be BRIEF.

Never in my life of chart reading and technical analysis have I seen a pattern more pure.

This correction will shake out the dumb money yet again. And most investors will completely miss out on the mother of all bull markets, as the Dow climbs to new all-time highs in the next 6-9 months!

 

OK, I don't know about the "new all-time highs in the next 6-9 months" thing, but I do strongly believe this correction will not last longer than 3 months (until August). And I do belive this will still be the biggest bull market in history.

Kinda "Sell in May and go away, but make sure you come back in August"...

What do you think?

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 19, 2010 at 12:41 PM, dragonLZ (99.54) wrote:

Re-post of my comment on another blog:

#3) On May 06, 2010 at 2:21 PM, dragonLZ (99.63) wrote:

But I do think the correction has to be severe enough to have the bears come out (confidently) with: This is the beginning of the end. We told you the big crush is coming. All of this was just a bear market rally...we told you so... etc.

Until that happens, I think we won't have a meaningful correction. 

I'm sure you noticed we haven't heard from goldminingXpert yet, and he's up 2,000 points last few days (up 900 just today).

Once GMX is up to 5,000 - 6,000 points range, I think that's when it will feel like bears are definitely in control again. That's when I would start buying.

Another "indicator" I like to watch is alexpaz. Once alexpaz's rating gets back to 90 or so, definitely the time to get back in with both feet.

However, I do agree with you slowly buying GNW (and some other ones) at these levels is not a bad idea.

Good Luck!

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#2) On May 19, 2010 at 12:45 PM, dragonLZ (99.54) wrote:

Alexpaz's rating went from low 20's up to 44 during the last few days.

GMX is alraedy at 4,500 points. He might go all the way up to 8,000 - 9,000 range between now and August.

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#3) On May 19, 2010 at 12:55 PM, Mstinterestinman (< 20) wrote:

Im a bulld and my score is getting crushed so things look bearish enough to me ;)..lol

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#4) On May 19, 2010 at 1:10 PM, starbucks4ever (97.39) wrote:

A very likely scenario

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#5) On May 19, 2010 at 7:46 PM, alexpaz (28.91) wrote:

Haha thats awesome Dragon! You're right about one thing...BACK to the 90's I go!

 

:)

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#6) On May 19, 2010 at 10:08 PM, dragonLZ (99.54) wrote:

Im a bulld and my score is getting crushed so things look bearish enough to me ;)..lol

 ozzfan1316, I feel you... :)

alexpaz, I'm glad you like that I'm using your portfolio as my bear-o-meter... :)

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#7) On May 20, 2010 at 12:55 AM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

boy, a trip to 9000 would be fantastically brutal... 

I will still be here, ready and willing to liquidate my boring positions and reposition.  at dow 9000 I will probably engage significant leverage...  

I don't know if I buy that big of a correction... but it sure would make for riches-aplenty coming out of it.

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#8) On May 20, 2010 at 7:27 AM, JakilaTheHun (99.94) wrote:

I'd love to see Dow 9000.  I think there are still a lot of attractively valued companies right now, so I'm sure my yield on those companies would skyrocket if we dropped back to 9000. 

Don't know about "biggest bull market in history."  I do think we're going to hit Dow 14000 within the next 2-8 years.  I'd hold off on making a more precise prediction. 

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#9) On May 20, 2010 at 12:01 PM, bothisellhigher (28.94) wrote:

I totally agree with Mr. Lansing and yourself...that the market is now tanking and will continue to tank for some time.  Through July? Through August?  And, I'm currently 100% short riding that "tank."  I am fully aware that the treads will fall off and the tank ride will end-sometime.  At that time, I will climb aboard the rocket and trade 100% long.  What I don't understand is the continual posturing bullbear crap about who is/will be right.  Who cares...go with what is "now" if you want to make money trading. And the now, in case you haven't noticed, is down. 

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#10) On May 20, 2010 at 12:04 PM, outoffocus (22.81) wrote:

What I don't understand is the continual posturing bullbear crap about who is/will be right.  Who cares...go with what is "now" if you want to make money trading. And the now, in case you haven't noticed, is down. 

I don't understand it either. I guess people have a perpetual need to pump their egos.

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#11) On May 20, 2010 at 12:36 PM, dragonLZ (99.54) wrote:

checklist34 and JakilaTheHun, I don't know if 9,000 is the magic number, but I don't think we are done going down. Right now, market is down another 270 poits and 9,000 looks so much closer. However, I don't think market will continue its way down in a free fall. I wouldn't be surprised if we go back to 10,800 or so before we go down below 10,000 (or 9,800). JMO.

Btw., Jakila, I'm surprised you are so conservative. 2-8 years to DOW 14,000 is a looong time. I'm more like a 1-2 years guy. Don't you believe in REITs (GRT) or small regional baks any more? I thought we were on the same page on these two...

bothisellhigher, I see you are trying to ride it both ways. I decided to step out (not 100%, but close) and wait. I got burned before trying to play it both ways. Good luck!

What I don't understand is the continual posturing bullbear crap about who is/will be right.    

Isn't that what makes life and CAPS interesting? I think it's fun. It's nothing personal, you know...

outoffocus (23.15) wrote:

What I don't understand is the continual posturing bullbear crap about who is/will be right.  Who cares...go with what is "now" if you want to make money trading. And the now, in case you haven't noticed, is down. 

I don't understand it either. I guess people have a perpetual need to pump their egos.  

outoffocus, you forgot to say SOME people. Not everybody's like that. You and I, for example... :)

Good Luck All!

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#12) On May 20, 2010 at 3:48 PM, dragonLZ (99.54) wrote:

Holy cow, alexpaz is already at 88 rating (after finishing at 33 yesterday).

GMX up 900 points again. Now at 5,500.

What a day...

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