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DOW at 12,800+. Nobody said it's going to be easy...



April 29, 2011 – Comments (15) | RELATED TICKERS: A , NICE , GAIN


dragonLZ's CAPS Blog

October 12, 2010Comments (11) | RELATED TICKERS: BYD , AGM , CPE

Well, it's on a mission. It has a job to do.

It needs to prove that this statement from this pitch is correct.


On a more serious note:

Do you remember the post from May of 2010 DOW 9,000 or DOW 14,000? How abouth both? ?

And do you rememeber what was said in that post?

Basically, it was said that the market will experience a very severe correction that will last from May to July, but that it will come back vigorously and will reach new highs.

Well, DOW didn't fall all the way to 9000 (but it did to 9700), and by the same token, I also said that I don't think DOW 14,000 is going to happen.

However, the point was that the market was just entering into a correction mode (not the double dip that many were predicting), and that it will reach new highs soon afterwards.

I also think that post ended with something like "Make sure to come back in August", which now we know, was a little bit too early.

Still, coming back in August, I think was better than sitting on the sidelines (or shorting the market) until October, waiting for the double dip to happen

One more thing.

I'm very excited about the market and the future, which does scare me a little bit.

I think the correction that we had in May-August, gave us a chance to scoop up bargains not seen since April of 2009.

In other words, buying stocks in September of 2010 was like buying stocks in April of 2009 - you could buy a piece of crap on a stick and it would be up 50+% a month later.

Right now, I'd say prices are comparable to May of 2009. There are still plenty of bargains left (a lot of stocks 30-40% off their 52W highs), but everyone buying now is a month late (which doesn't mean too late, just that one has to be more careful and have more reasonable expectations).

And that would be it for this post, Fools.

Sit back and enjoy the ride to DOW 12,900... or so... :) 

15 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 29, 2011 at 8:55 PM, dragonLZ (72.32) wrote:

#4) On October 12, 2010 at 6:32 PM, dragonLZ (99.59) wrote:

Momentum21, I actually think the rise will be steep and suprisingly easy for bulls (yes, I'm that stupid). That's actually the reason I posted this. Market hasn't reach the new highs yet, but I'm convinced it will.

And it will continue going higher, is my opinion...

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#2) On April 29, 2011 at 8:58 PM, dragonLZ (72.32) wrote:

On October 12, 2010, DOW was at 11,020, today at 12,810...

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#3) On April 29, 2011 at 9:06 PM, Momentum21 (97.61) wrote:

good call once again! where do we go from here? : )

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#4) On April 29, 2011 at 9:25 PM, dragonLZ (72.32) wrote:

Thanks M21.

Btw., I'm just pretending it was easy - it wasn't. At least not for my picks (both in RL and here on CAPS).

Where we go from here?

I'm sure your guess is better than mine as I haven't really followed the market very closely as of late (on purpose).

I do, however, still think this will be the biggest bull market ever (even if we have a bad year along the way).

Good Luck, my friend. :)


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#5) On April 29, 2011 at 10:18 PM, Harold71 (< 20) wrote:

Nice gain?  Ha.  Maybe in terms of Ben's funny money.   Check oil, gold, silver, cotton, wheat lately?

Fact:  The stock market is not in a fundamental bull rally.  It's in an inflation induced rally.  Commodities > stocks.  By far.

Should easily hit 12,900, but by mid-June, this cyclical bull rally shall know that it still serves a larger master -- a secular bear.

See ya at Dow/Gold = 2...or so... :)




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#6) On April 29, 2011 at 10:32 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (77.88) wrote:

Grrrrr! I remember when you posted that I was calling for Dow 9500 at the time (missed it by that much...: )

Hey Dragon you ever check out-

Thats what I'm going with right now.

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#7) On April 29, 2011 at 10:49 PM, Valyooo (34.92) wrote:

Harold, your caps picks show just how good your predictions have been so far

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#8) On April 30, 2011 at 12:18 AM, Harold71 (< 20) wrote:

Ouch Vaylooo...

That hurts. 

Considering I stopped picking in what August 2009?

I don't tend to caps game, just to the blogs.  Is that all right with you son?

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#9) On April 30, 2011 at 12:24 AM, Harold71 (< 20) wrote:

Pitch by: harold71 9/17/08 10:42 PM

My poor little SLV was beaten like a red-headed stepchild.

Unlike Federal Reserve Notes (known in many circles as US Dollars), SLV will heal, grow stronger, and build a rocketship to head for the moon.


 How is silver doing again?  Okay?


The only pick that I had in real money portfolio....i.e., the only one that mattered.

Aye...I do have some DGP as well.

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#10) On April 30, 2011 at 2:33 AM, Valyooo (34.92) wrote:

Silver miners make up about 17% of my portfolio....all I am saying is this never ending bearishness is ridiculousness

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#11) On April 30, 2011 at 9:58 AM, MoneyWorksforMe (< 20) wrote:

Nice call dragonlz.

hardold71 does make an excellent point however...He isn't bearish U.S. equities, he is bearish on the U.S. economy; there's a difference. Recognizing that this rally would be largely inflation-induced allowed him to make better investments by going long commodities/precious metals, which, as he explained, have far outperformed the major indexes.  

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#12) On May 02, 2011 at 9:22 PM, TSIF (99.97) wrote:

I call a top to everything this week, except maybe oil. Oil may have another month left in it.  Overall though, top for now, and an 5-11% correction on the markets and a little less correction to the commodities...then /Dragon can ride back up, SLOWLY!  :)

Disclaimer, if I knew anything, would I be posting here?  ;) 

Signed a PermaBull getting ready for a summer nap.....


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#13) On May 25, 2011 at 6:27 PM, ContraryDude (40.36) wrote:

Good call TSIF! Since May 2 the DJIA has dropped from 12800 to about 12350, or roughly 3.5% correction.  And summer is not even here yet!

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#14) On May 26, 2011 at 12:12 PM, TSIF (99.97) wrote:

Thanks ContraryDude!  The commodities took a harder hit initially than I expected.  In particular I thought silver would oscillate down more rather than the hard fall. I had to play it off the bottom, though it may still oscillate down a little bit more so I closed 2 of my 3 upcalls on the rebound.

Not looking good still going into Memorial Day, which some consider the official start of summer.  In the NE we have such a limited summer that I usually consider that any period of time I don't see the oil delivery truck as "summer".  GL

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#15) On May 26, 2011 at 12:30 PM, dragonLZ (72.32) wrote:

What do you guys mean "TSIF made a good call?"

I actually was the one who called the top right on the day when the top was in (TSIF was vague by saying "this week"). Ever since April 29, when the DOW was at 12810 and I wrote this post, the market has been going lower and lower.

Yes, I called the top without really saying anything about the top.

Why do you think I wasn't waiting for 12,900 to say: I told you so? (Back in October, I said DOW will go up to 12,900).

Think about it... :)


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