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cbwang888 (27.43)

DOW future up 100, S&P500 up 12.7, T-bond/notes and USD dropping, Oil/Gold up 1~2%+

Recs

12

June 10, 2009 – Comments (24) | RELATED TICKERS: ERX , UYM , SRS

 

Stock rallied oversea in Aisan and European markets. Look like it will be a 1~2% up day.

Commodity and energy sectors continue to be hot.

Day Trading => ERX hot, ERY cold. UYM hot, SMN cold. ==> Buy ERX/UYM @ market open and sell it 1Hr later ...

Financial stcoks? Laggards of the day, I would think. T-bond/notes actions are no good for them as interest rate are going up, Up, UP. FAZ or SRS loss should be less than 4% at the closing ...

I think I'm going to gain at least 200 more CAPS pts today (unless Casino stocks jump big). Market is going to be a little bit volatile(overshoot might be) as option expiration coming next week.

Cash (UDS) and Treasury bond/note, **sigh** ....

Inflation is coming to US. Banks got help from Fed/Treasury. Small US potatoes are screwed. This is the change we wanted?

Shorts, don't fight the trend until it reverses itself. Oversea markets are leading US now until bubbles burst again in US (could be in July?) ...

24 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 10, 2009 at 8:27 AM, cbwang888 (27.43) wrote:

Bloomberg headline:

Stocks, U.S. Futures, Commodities Gain; Dollar, Treasuries Fall 

 

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#2) On June 10, 2009 at 10:15 AM, goldminingXpert (99.81) wrote:

And now the Dow is flat, the S&P is lower, T-bonds are flat and gold is red. Behold the volatility before the bond auction of DOOM

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#3) On June 10, 2009 at 10:19 AM, outoffocus (26.97) wrote:

Lol GMX, now you're starting to sound like Alstry.

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#4) On June 10, 2009 at 10:22 AM, cbwang888 (27.43) wrote:

GMX,

Volatility is expected. I'm also expecting money to come out from financial sectors and rotate to stronger sectors like basic materials and energy. Unless USD get stronger and everything will fall...

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#5) On June 10, 2009 at 10:22 AM, goldminingXpert (99.81) wrote:

Shorts got a gift from heaven short opp off the open fwiw. The McClennan oscillator says we get a big move today--and we're getting one. A gap up and then a big huge crap down... looking golden for team bear.

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#6) On June 10, 2009 at 10:27 AM, cbwang888 (27.43) wrote:

I still think we will get a overshoot up to DOW 9K unless the T-bond/notes thing are becoming disasters. I doubt that. Federal Reserve will print more money to buy them.

I will write some in the money calls early next week to protect some of my gain ...

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#7) On June 10, 2009 at 10:29 AM, goldminingXpert (99.81) wrote:

why wasn't the fed printing/buying last week when the TNX broke out over technically important 3.7? Why would the bond market be so stupid as to get fooled by the printing press. If the bond market sniffs a printing press, interest rates go vertical instantly.

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#8) On June 10, 2009 at 10:45 AM, cbwang888 (27.43) wrote:

 

GMX, good questions. Fed did pledge to buy up to 300B of T-bonds. I think Fed will  buy the longer term ones.  Yes, 10Y Note is what is important to the mortgage rate.

Nevertheless, we have seen many late day rally, even in T-bonds.

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#9) On June 10, 2009 at 10:51 AM, goldminingXpert (99.81) wrote:

1PM ET today--the moment of truth. Along with 1PMET for the 30Y tomorrow.

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#10) On June 10, 2009 at 11:26 AM, EV38 (99.89) wrote:

SPY is down 40 cents at the moment but the SPY 94 June calls only down only 5. The market is expecting increased volatility so we'll be in for a nice ride this afternoon.

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#11) On June 10, 2009 at 11:27 AM, goldminingXpert (99.81) wrote:

Yeah, VIX launched an intraday gap north--unusual.

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#12) On June 10, 2009 at 11:39 AM, EV38 (99.89) wrote:

SPY down 22

The June 94 calls down even

The June 95 puts down 1 cent

Based on the relative changes in time value of each you can take an educated guess as to which way option traders think the market will go. I don't want to jinx it though by adding my opinion in.

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#13) On June 10, 2009 at 11:40 AM, EV38 (99.89) wrote:

Ignore the "down even" part...it went to break even during my last refresh and I guess I forgot to get rid of down :)

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#14) On June 10, 2009 at 11:42 AM, goldminingXpert (99.81) wrote:

I think your quotes are off. I'm showing 94 and 95 puts up 3 to 5% and 93 and 94 calls trading off 2 to 4%.

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#15) On June 10, 2009 at 11:47 AM, goldminingXpert (99.81) wrote:

You're right, I'm watching the options tick by tick and there is a small skew to the call side. Interesting. Hopefully it won't amount to anything.

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#16) On June 10, 2009 at 11:48 AM, EV38 (99.89) wrote:

I've got $1.67 for the 94 calls, after yesterdays close of $1.65. I'm looking at the SWGs not ROQs which expire at the end of the month. The SWGs are a better indicator IMO because there should be less of a time premium on them.

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#17) On June 10, 2009 at 11:50 AM, goldminingXpert (99.81) wrote:

Yeah, I see what you're saying now that I'm staring at them for a few minutes.

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#18) On June 10, 2009 at 12:54 PM, ttboydxb (40.76) wrote:

buy tmv while you can!

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#19) On June 10, 2009 at 4:35 PM, cbwang888 (27.43) wrote:

Last hour rally, it happens 4 out of 5 sessions.

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#20) On June 10, 2009 at 5:22 PM, EV38 (99.89) wrote:

This is already the third time since last week when I bought the SPY 94 June calls where everything looks like a big rally is set in place (GBP/JPY is up huge, overseas markets up, technicals from prior day look bullish) and I'm up on my calls but not selling because I think its gonna run, then it tanks to where I'm down huge on my calls and cr@pping my pants, then it pulls up to near breakeven on the day, thus setting up another bullish sign.

This is both a bull trap AND a bear trap, everyday...I swear next time I'm up on these bloody things, which will likely be sometime tomorrow, I'm just going to sell them, and only THEN will the market run :s

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#21) On June 10, 2009 at 6:15 PM, cbwang888 (27.43) wrote:

EV38,

I normally liquidate or reduce my in the money calls/puts options one week before the expiration day.  Time value decay quickly and a market about-face can wipe your 1000% gain into 90% loss in a few days. So I normally bought cheap out-of-money with big volume for speculations and in-the-money if I'm confidence to minimze the premium I would pay.

For SPY, I cannot guess what it will be ended. It would be a purely gamble for me. I won't mind buyint it when DOW is down 100+ like today, though.

I would rather do a sector or individual stock option bets ...

 

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#22) On June 10, 2009 at 9:26 PM, EV38 (99.89) wrote:

Oh I know what you mean and I usually follow the rules you laid out...except I've been so damn sure we will run based on what the currency market had been doing. But no, someone keeps on smashing it back down just when it looks like it'll break out. Oh well I guess I'll have to get out of it while the getting is still good.

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#23) On June 11, 2009 at 1:29 PM, cbwang888 (27.43) wrote:

UYM up 5.6% and ERY up 9.7% as I'm typing now.

I KNEW FED are saving their bullets to buy 30Y T-bonds ...

 

GMX, you are fighting the filthy Federal Reserve, the BIG BAD BANK.

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#24) On June 13, 2009 at 2:07 PM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

Hey .... GMX!  I sold my Gold.  There is a perfect 50% decline in silver, followed by a perfect 50% retracement, followed by a 62.8% extention.  I am now short Gold, Silver, the US Equity Markets and Long the Dollar.  Does any of this make sense?  Hell no, but markets are turning...and all at once as they frequently do. 

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