January 14, 2007
– Comments (1)
Hey wax. In regards to your SEPR short, I have to agree that "I think it's a good thing to go down on the beaver" - in my personal experience this strategy has always paid massive dividends. ;-)
I have some questions in regards to your valuation model. I saw on BGG someone asked you where you got your reasonable value estimates from and you said it was a combination of the discounted cash flow value and the leveraged buyout value. I'm guessing you are (or were) an accountant.
*How do you find the companies that you perform your analysis on? Is there some screen you can use to speed up finding companies that will perform well in your model, or do you have to use brute force?
*With regards to the discounted cash flow, how many years do you project forward and what % discount do you consider reasonable?
*Do you have a multiple of the current price or an average return that the valuation must hit before you consider it a real $$$ buy? If so, what percentage of all companies you analyze qualify as buys?
If you don't want to let the cat out of the bag don't sweat it. I'm just always curious when I see someone putting actual numbers on value estimates where they find their data and how they process it.