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IBDvalueinvestin (98.45)

Durable Goods headlines Misleading and thus its a short trap.



July 29, 2009 – Comments (1)

Novice shorts have been mislead by the Durable Goods numbers which at first glance look like they dissappointed. But on further investigation you find out the numbers were really impressive when you take out auto's. Many people delayed buying new cars when they found out that Cash for clunkers was going to pass. Why pass up $4,500 by buying a new car a month too early. Now looking forward next month the numbers should look dramatically better than this one.

 July 29 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods, excluding automobiles and aircraft, unexpectedly gained in June, signaling that manufacturing may expand in the second half of the year.

Excluding transportation equipment, orders for goods meant to last several years climbed 1.1 percent, the most in four months, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Total orders fell 2.5 percent, the first decrease in three months.

Full article here

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 29, 2009 at 10:39 AM, IBDvalueinvestin (98.45) wrote:

Also the extra build in crude inventories is great news for consumer dependent stocks: Retail, look at JNY, ARO, M,


Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending July 24
Production: U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.6 mln bpd during the week ending July 24, 171 thousand bpd below the previous week's avg. Refineries operated at 84.6% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production fell last week, averaging nearly 9.0 mln bpd. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging about 4.0 mln bpd... Imports: U.S. crude oil imports averaged 10.0 mln bpd last week, up 821 thousand bpd from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 9.5 mln bpd, 586 thousand bpd below the same four-week period last yr. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged nearly 1.0 mln bpd. Distillate fuel imports averaged 254 thousand bpd last week... Inventory: At 347.8 mln barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper boundary of the avg range for this time of yr. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.3 mln barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the avg range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending components decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.1 mln barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the avg range for this time of yr. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.0 mln barrels last week and are above the upper limit of the avg range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 5.5 mln barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the avg range for this time of yr... Demand: Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.2 mln bpd, up by 0.8% from the same period last yr. Distillate fuel demand has averaged about 3.3 mln bpd over the last four weeks, down by 10.7% from the same period last yr. Jet fuel demand is 13.3% lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last yr. (Click here for a chart of stockpiles and imports)


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