July 27, 2010
– Comments (8)
So far earnings seasons is going gangbusters to the upside.
S&P futures vs fair value: +5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.50.
Just like I said in early July, Earnings are gonna blowaway estimates on a big scale. Thus the market after a -15% decline is undervalued.
Actually you told everyone to sell, called the rally a fake and a trap. You flip flop like a fish on land. Your suggestions are worthless an trail the market by a day or up to a week. Market up three days = IBD switched to bullish, Market goes down three days = IBD bearish. Always behind the curve like a little league baseball player.
I am able to beat your score by a mile so I must be able to hit your fast ball over the fence everytime.
I actually do not play the CAPS "game". I simply add stocks I am interested in watching and may buy some day if the price ever drops to a level I like. In CAPS, I do not take ANY consideration the current price or buy in price. I simply hit "long" or "short" and now can read commentary on it at a later point in time.
Before you come off like a bigger pompass asshole you should learn to know you opponennt. I know you. You are a sheep. You do not know me.
A little about me...
I owned SMDI before it was bought out by RFMD. I made a 300% gain approximately on that stock.
I worked at FLIR Systems, Inc. and through the benefits of my 15% discount bought at an average price of $13 and sold at $35.99. Total gain of approximately 276%.
I have made a killing on SORL, SDTH, and others selling near their tops. I have made losses on CDII (big mistake) and CDCS in the past few years.
Other big buys have been EWZ at $29.79 (Sold after 135% gain, MOS at $23.40 (Sold after 80% gain), etc. in Nov. 08 near the 7xx bottom of the S&P. Yes, I missed the March bottom, but pretty much perfectly called the bottom in November and rose that through 2009 and into 2010.
I made a 40% gain one day on ONP earlier this month and bought more recently to hopefully trade off the bad news that is priced in.
In real life, I have an average annual return of 18.62% for the last 6 years.
I do not like to blog and flop around like a fish on land, like you.
Before you begin to brag about your score on a game, remember, not everyone is playing. I simply add tickers I want to monitor to observe commentary on them, as well as see if any top fools are picking them. By doing this, with NO vested time dedicated to thorough DD or limit buy prices, I STILL beat 70% of the players here. If I actually spent REAL time playing this, i have no doubt I would beat you by multiple percentage points.
If its any consolation, you have become my contratrian indicator:
June 30th post:
You pretty much nailed the bottom within 2%, except you SOLD at the bottom instead of bought at the bottom. Congrats!
That said, I'll admit it is extremely hard/impossible to time the minutiae movements within the markets. This is why I keep my mouth shut and never utter a up or down prediction without trailing with "I hope."
If you go back and follow even Buffett's predictions, he's got a 2 outta 3 accuracy. Which is pretty good (but thats a 33% chance to be wrong.) So I'd conclude that one does not have to time the market to be incredibly successful in this game - and also that no one should pay any attention to these "prophecies."
You raise excellent points, and even the best get it wrong a lot. IBD gets it wrong even more than that however, and never admits wrongdoing. By thinking you are better than someone, because of a silly score on an internet game just shows your maturity level (especially when comparing yourself to someone who uses it at a watch list!!! hahaha).
I'll leave IBD alone now. I once followed him because I thought he may be very knowledgeable and good at picks and provide beneficial blogs. Then I realized how absolutely horrible his short-term calls were and how he had no longterm perspective and was a sheep following the markets most recently weekly activity. He has been removed from my "Favorites" and I will stop reminding users just how bad his blogs have been. They can make up their own minds.
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