February 14, 2009
– Comments (5)
Big Picture has a post which estimates earning will reach a 83% of peak decline.
That's an exponential graph so it really under states the problem as a picture.
Boy, am I behind on reading...
This quarter is actually negative earnings, and if I am reading this correctly, that is even if you exclude financials.
One of the things that I have been consistent on is that I am incapable on predicting where the fallout of all this deleveraging is going to hit, but be assured, with negative earnings companies will go out of business and there will be at least a bit of a dominion of them pushing other tight companies over the edge.
440 S&P fairly valued?
There is no question that in my assessment I think the S&P is still over valued and I put 700 as a place to start assessing the quality of various buys, not that it is fairly valued there, but as a place to be to start looking...
I gave my reasons for getting out of the market in Oct/Nov 07 and it took a very long time for the market to actually do what I thought it would do. But, I don't think the pain is nearly over.
450-600 is the range i'm targeting, but I agree, more pain to come.
This should be big news. It's hardly a whisper.