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Eaten Alive by CROX



May 04, 2007 – Comments (0)

This much hated 1-star stock has now become my worst pick on CAPS. Hurray for Crocs.

Of course it was never the profits, or the other fundamentals for that matter, that turned me off from Crocs. I just see a stock that's been driven by momentum and doesn't have the means to sustain the growth that's made it such an exciting stock. As always, it's particularly painful to make that call too early, and that is largely why I don't short a lot with real money.

Ideally you want to be there shorting right as growth starts to falter. As with calling market turns, that's a darn tough thing to do -- usually at the moment that the market sees chinks in the growth armor the stock drops pretty darn quickly.

For now, Crocs stays. Maybe my analysis does end up panning out. If not, at least I'll have a very visible reminder of the fact that I can be very wrong.


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