Econ101: Peak Oil Theory; Matt Simmons (Bloomberg): Peak Oil Now, Oil Perhaps to $300
“My friends, I will have an energy policy which will eliminate our dependence on oil from Middle East that will then prevent us from having ever to send our young men and women into conflict again in the Middle East.”
John McCain admits Iraq War was over oil
Peak oil is a major investment theme. It could be largest investment theme moving the market today. Oil has gone from $20 to $116 in seven years. Oil is used in: food, transportation, packaging, energy, plastics, fertilizers, etc.... You should have an educated opinion on the Peak Oil Theory if you are buying stocks, because of the impact of oil on the overall market.
Peak oil From wikipedia:
"Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum production is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline. If global consumption is not mitigated before the peak, an energy crisis may develop because the availability of conventional oil will drop and prices will rise, perhaps dramatically. M. King Hubbert first used the theory in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. His model, now called Hubbert peak theory, has since been used to predict the peak petroleum production of many other countries, and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical bell-shaped curve based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures.
Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S. Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, believe the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural and industrial systems on the relative low cost and high availability of oil will cause the post-peak production decline and possible severe increases in the price of oil to have negative implications for the global economy. Although predictions as to what exactly these negative effects will be vary greatly, "a growing number of oil-industry chieftains are endorsing an idea long deemed fringe: The world is approaching a practical limit to the number of barrels of crude oil that can be pumped every day."[1 "
Here is a good chart
Matt Simmons (Bloomberg): Peak Oil Now, Oil Perhaps to $300
Oil Supply Shock - March 29, 2007
I think this i a cut from Crude Awakening (9 minutes)
The End of Oil Part 1 Of 6
The End of Oil Part 2 Of 6
The End of Oil Part 3 Of 6
FYI - Of interest / counter arguement from 8 Mar 1999: The Economist predicts low oil prices for foreseeable future From
: Harriet Griffin <harriet.griffin@DELETETHISenvironmental-change.oxford.ac.uk
: The Economist predicts low oil prices for foreseeable futureDate
: Mon, 8 Mar 1999 15:35:19 -0000