Economics 101: The Skyscraper Curse and “7) Chinese stock market falls 40% by late summer”
April 23, 2008
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“7) Chinese stock market falls 40% by late summer” Predictions 2008: S&P Falls 25%, Chinese Mkt Falls 40%, Ron Paul Wins Presidency, Oil $175 etc...
abitarecatania’s MF Blog on December 30, 2007,
“Also, if the Dubai boom was an isolated event, I wouldn't be particularly concerned. But everywhere I travel I am left with the uncomfortable feeling that the current boom is surreal and unsustainable….Cape Town, has become a huge circus reminiscent of the consumer electronic shows held in Las Vegas in the late 1990s.
And whereas I have a relatively positive view of commodities, I doubt that all these mining executives (predominantly promoters and liars) will make as much money as they hope to, simply because exploration and mining development costs are soaring.
Every major city around the world is also experiencing a huge condo and office construction boom, and in resort areas there are enormous developments of secondary homes. Should the financial sector contract, as I believe will occur for several years, will all these new offices find tenants? I also wonder if all the condo and second home buyers are aware of the maintenance costs of their units and that in over-supplied markets prices can decline sharply.” 2
-Marc Faber
SKYSCRAPER CURSE
“The desire to erect the tallest building seems to have much to do with sudden capital inflows that pump up credit creation and confidence. It's often periods of over-investment and financial speculation, fueled by excessive monetary expansion, that drive developers and politicians to architectural one-upmanship.”"Skyscraper Index" was created by Andrew Lawrence. It is unconventional economic barometer has connected the dots between epidemics of towering hubris and economic problems.
In 2006, most of the Middle Eastern stock markets declined by 50% or more
The world's tallest buildings are going up there….
In China, the Shanghai Financial Center will rise 1,584 feet over what's arguably Asia's most dynamic city. A planned project in Hong Kong would be even taller. Beyond that, mainland China and Hong Kong boast six of the 20 tallest buildings currently in use, according to Skyscrapers.com.
China continues to grow at rates approaching 8 percent at a time when much of the global economy is on the verge of recession. And while Hong Kong is experiencing deflation and record unemployment, there's little panic about the city's economic situation.
In the late 1920s, the completion of the Chrysler and Empire State buildings coincided with the Great Depression. The 1970s saw the erection of the 1,368-foot Trade Center and Chicago's 1,450-foot Sears Tower amid stagflation, a fiscal crisis in New York and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods monetary system. The completion of Kuala Lumpur's Petronas Towers in 1997 coincided with the collapse of Asia's economies.[1]
World Biblical Tower of Babel long before that, efforts to erect mankind's next architectural monstrosity have proved a reliable indicator of economic meltdowns.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m5072/is_38_24/ai_92808208/pg_1
1. Buildings go up, economies head down - Commentary - Brief ArticleLos Angeles Business Journal, Sept 23, 2002 2. A "WATER TORTURE" BEAR MARKET, PART I
by Dr. Marc Faber
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