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ELECTIONS & Markets What has happened in past? Update #2

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October 30, 2008 – Comments (2)

 Bloomberg radio said earlier this week that on average when a
Democrat is elected President the markets have gained 10% after the
election while when a Republican is elected the markets lose on
average 2 1/2% after the election.

So with Obama in the lead if history holds true to its form then we
are in for another 10% upside move on Obama getting elected.

Info above was obtained during a live conversation bloomberg radio
anchors were having earlier this week.

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Obama now on track for Electoral College majority
By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer Liz Sidoti, Associated Press
Writer – 6 mins ago

WASHINGTON – Barack Obama has pulled ahead in enough states to win
the 270 electoral votes he needs to gain the White House — and with
states to spare — according to an Associated Press analysis that
shows he is now moving beyond typical Democratic territory to
challenge John McCain on historically GOP turf.

Even if McCain sweeps the six states that are too close to call, he
still seemingly won't have enough votes to prevail, according to the
analysis, which is based on polls, the candidates' TV spending
patterns and interviews with Democratic and Republican strategists.
McCain does have a path to victory but it's a steep climb: He needs
a sudden shift in voter sentiment that gives him all six toss-up
states plus one or two others that now lean toward Obama.

Obama has 23 states and the District of Columbia, offering 286
votes, in his column or leaning his way, while Republican McCain has
21 states with 163 votes. A half dozen offering 89 votes — Florida,
Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio — remain up for
grabs. President Bush won all six in 2004, and they are where the
race is primarily being contested in the homestretch.

Though sounding confident, Obama is still campaigning hard. "Don't
believe for a second this election is over," he tells backers. "We
have to work like our future depends on it in this last week,
because it does."

The underdog McCain is pressing supporters to fight on: "Nothing is
inevitable here. We never give up. And we never quit."

Less than a week before Election Day, the AP analysis isn't meant to
be predictive but rather provides a late snapshot of a race that's
been volatile all year.

It's still possible McCain can pull off an upset. Some public and
private polling shows the race tightening nationally. And, roughly
one fourth of voters in a recent AP-GfK poll were undecided or said
they still could change their minds. It's also still unclear how
racial feelings will affect the results in voting that could give
the country its first black president.

Last month, in a similar analysis, Obama had an edge over McCain but
hadn't laid claim to enough states to cross the 270-vote threshold.

Since then, the economic crisis has reshaped the race, and the
public's call for change has grown louder. Obama has strengthened
his grip in the contest by using his significant financial advantage
to lock up most states that Democrat John Kerry won four years ago,
even as he makes inroads into traditionally GOP turf that McCain
cannot afford to lose.

Obama now has several possible routes to victory, while McCain is
scrambling to defend states where he shouldn't even have to campaign
in the final days.

In new AP-GfK battleground polling, Obama has a solid lead in
typically Republican Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. He and
McCain are even in two other usually GOP states: Florida and North
Carolina. Obama also is comfortably ahead in New Hampshire and
Pennsylvania. The series of polls showed Obama is winning among
early voters, is favored on most issues, benefits from the country's
sour mood and is widely viewed as the likely victor by voters in
these states.

McCain's senior advisers acknowledge his steep hurdles and no-room-
for-error strategy. However, they insist that internal polling shows
the race getting closer. They hope the gains trickle down to
competitive Bush-won states in the coming days and help the Arizona
senator eke out a victory in Kerry-won Pennsylvania. McCain is
keeping up his attacks against Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal; his
strategists contend that's moving poll numbers.

"This campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states
with our numbers improving sharply," said Bill McInturff, McCain's
lead pollster in a strategy memo. "All signs say we are headed to an
election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday."

Democrats privately acknowledge the race is narrowing, though they
say they aren't concerned. Obama's top aides hope not just for a win
but a sweeping victory that would reshapes the political landscape.

"Strategically we tried to have as wide of a map as possible," to
have many routes to reaching the magic number of 270 on Election
Day, David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, told reporters this
week. "We think we've been able to create that dynamic and have a
lot of competitive states in play."

Indeed, Obama has used his financial heft and organizational
prowess, a remnant of the long Democratic primary that was fought
out in every corner of the nation, to compete in states the party
has ignored in previous elections because of their histories of
voting Republican. McCain has lagged in both money and manpower.

As a result, the GOP's hold on states usually considered safe has
shrunk, and the election's final week is being played out largely in
states that Bush won and that are toss-ups in a political climate
that greatly favors Democrats.

They include the traditional GOP bastions of Indiana and North
Carolina, as well as perennial battlegrounds of Missouri and Nevada.
Also on the list are the crown jewels of Florida and Ohio, which
were crucial in deciding the last two presidential elections. McCain
could sweep all six and still lose the White House.

Obama has every state that Kerry won four years ago seemingly in the
bag or leaning his way, including Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and
New Hampshire — four states with 41 votes that McCain and his allies
aggressively fought for before pulling back this month when they
became out of reach. McCain still hopes to win one of Maine's
electoral votes, which are allotted by congressional district.

Among Kerry's states from 2004, only Pennsylvania, which hasn't
voted for a Republican since 1988, remains realistically in McCain's
sights. Public polls show Obama leading by double-digits, though
McCain aides say it's much closer. McCain hopes that working-class
white voters who haven't fully warmed to Obama will vote Republican.
Some aides say a Pennsylvania victory, with 21 votes, could be what
allows McCain to win the White House, provided he can thwart Obama
in Bush-held states.

Over the past month, Obama has strengthened his standing in four of
those offering a combined 34 votes.

He has comfortable leads in Iowa and New Mexico polls. Long
considered toss-ups, Colorado and Virginia have started tilting more
toward Obama. McCain is still advertising heavily in the four and
has visited all in recent days. His advisers say their polling shows
the race tighter than it seems.

West Virginia and Montana both emerged as GOP trouble spots after
Obama started advertising in them; the Republican National Committee
was forced to go on the air this week to defend them.

Earlier in the year, Obama had put millions of dollars into Georgia
and North Dakota only to pull out when McCain ended up maintaining
an edge. But, as the race closes, there are indications Obama could
win them, too. Obama also could pick up a single vote in Nebraska,
which awards votes based on congressional districts.

There are even signs that the race in McCain's home state of
Arizona — which would be a battleground if he didn't live there — is
narrowing. Public polls show McCain with a single-digit lead, even
though Obama hasn't targeted the state.

3 Comments – Post Your Own #1) On October 29, 2008 at 8:32 PM, sid187 (33.11) wrote:

BLAH BLAH BLAH

NOBAMA  with the N word being prominent.......

NOT

You can throw out history, the election won't solve a thing.

And should the DEMI RATS lose yet another election....

:) it would serve them well.

 

#2) On October 29, 2008 at 8:49 PM, russiangambit (98.83) wrote:

Sid, it is not about democrats or republicans, it is about the future of the country. The level of partizanship in this country is ridiculous.

Obama is going to win, no two ways about it. Stop denying the obvious.

Learning to acknowledge ones mistakes is the path to personal growth and prosperity. -))

#3) On October 29, 2008 at 9:00 PM, MarketBottom (99.06) wrote:

McCain wins in historic landslide

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 30, 2008 at 10:48 AM, Gemini846 (58.67) wrote:

The problem russiangambit is that different people have different ideas of what's best for the "future of the country". Some people think it should be more like the past. They think the country is in the mess it's in because we've leaned away from things that made us great like family values, free markets and a strong military. Others think it needs to go further in a new direction, that prosperity comes from economic equality and that free thinking and an open mind are more important than tradition.

Since you hold the election is a forgone conclusion, I'm not sure if your summary about learning from one's mistakes is an argument for or against Obama; IE we'll learn from the mistake of electing him over the next 4 years.

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#2) On November 01, 2008 at 4:31 AM, monksnake (38.32) wrote:

I don't want Obama to win simply because of a raise in the capital gains tax, which he does want to do.  

If Obama becomes president, the idea of him wanting to raise that tax could keep tons of money from going back into the market.  I don't see this helping the market recover.

I don't make $250k a year, not near, and strangely enough I would have to pay HIGHER TAXES with Obama as president if he could pass that bill.  

I thought ONLY people making $250k or more a year would have to pay higher taxes under Obama???  That's the way it is presented.  

 

 

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