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portefeuille (99.59)

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April 01, 2009 – Comments (3)

6 weeks ago (February 18) I started a list of "caps"-style ratings.

I did not choose to start another "caps player" so I could include "ratings" for "not currently ratable" stocks and so I could "rate" more than 200 stocks at a time if I wanted to without "crashing the caps server".

I made 169 "outperform" "picks" between February 18 and March 12. The average performance of those picks is ca. +33% as of today.

March 12 was chosen as cutoff somewhat arbitrarily (I wanted to include the stock market low of March 6 and to give all picks some time "to develop").

The S&P 500 index opened at 791.06 on February 18 and closed at 750.74 on March 12. The index had its intraday low on March 6 at 666.79 and today closed at 811.08 (+21.64% from the low).

It might be of some interest that you can have a 33% return with a well diversified portfolio that you buy "into" and "out of" the low.

I would say that some 80% of those picks were cases of "catching a falling knife" - maybe not such a bad idea after all (around 70% of my portefeuille picks fall into that same category).

(My best catch was GM on March 6, 11:43 AM, at $1.27 (#107). I know I was lucky but still ... 1.27 was the 52 week low and it stayed there for little more than a minute. GM is the only pick I have "ended" so far, at 3.06 (#274).)

Here is a list of the best and worst of those 169 picks (ticker and percentage change):

ACAS 200
XTNT 175
VVTV 152
GM 141
BCS 125
FITB 110
CENX 107
SEH 101
C 91
JAVA 91
LVS 88
EBKDY.PK 86
UNCFF.PK 83
JBL 82
LYG 81
BAC 75
IO 74
YMI 74
ING 74
HL 72
EK 71
HGSI 70
MBI 69
BGP 67
GMK 66
AWC 63
TWI 63
MIC 62
CRAY 59
BLDP 58
SWCEY.PK 57
DBOEF.PK 57
ALU 57
HUN 55
AXA 53
F 53
JDSU 52
CMZ 52
SNDK 51
VIP 50
...

...

...

RMBS 4
HBC 3
M3V.DE 3
ONT 3
WGOV 2
CSE 2
QGEN 1
SLV 1
VIGN 1
KDE -1
OREX -1
OWW -3
AER -4
LNUX -6
ABTL -7
GERN -11
UNG -14
FCE-A -16
TSCM -22
RHIE -54
ERPL.PK -69

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 02, 2009 at 12:56 PM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

average performance today: ca. 43%

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#2) On April 02, 2009 at 1:20 PM, mymini2 (< 20) wrote:

Congratulations. It your picks have been quite diversified. What are you plans now? Sell off as stocks are overbought and short or hold the majority of picks for the long haul? 

Good selections...

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#3) On April 18, 2009 at 12:40 PM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

average performance: ca. 64%

ACAS 272
BGP 245
CENX 244
FITB 231
BCS 223
MIC 203
HGSI 196
SEH 179
LYG 175
VVTV 174
BAC 164
XTNT 163
C 161
UNCFF.PK 156
ING 155
LVS 153
GM 141
TWI 138
BLDP 137
CTV 132
TSFG 132
JBL 128
F 123
GMK 123
EBKDY.PK 117
SWCEY.PK 116
HUN 115
IO 110
HLX 105
GNK 100
ALU 99
MTW 97
DOW 96
VIP 95
FCE-A 94
JDSU 94
AXA 93
AWC 92
CSE 91
CRAY 91
WFC 90
...
...

...
ACTS 24
CSCO 24
JDAS 24
ADPT 22
TLAB 22
AMZN 22
LIFE 21
NOVL 20
TWX 20
WAT 20
SA 19
EMC 19
SQNM 18
SGP 18
HON 17
OWW 17
KDE 16
VG 15
VIGN 15
BP 14
RNWK 14
PDLI 13
RMBS 11
PTIE 9
GERN 8
UL 8
ONT 6
VRUS 4
ABTL 3
OREX -2
QGEN -3
TSCM -4
SLV -8
RHIE -9
UNG -13
NG -13
M3V.DE -14
ERPL.PK -53

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