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portefeuille (98.82)




April 04, 2009 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: SU , MTRN

here are two pieces of advice you may not want to follow:

i) "never catch a falling knife"

ii) "never throw good money after bad"

I have given "outperform" ratings almost exclusively to stocks that would be considered "falling knifes" at the time and ... it worked! (I think I am in the top 10 considering only points scored via "outperformance calls" (maybe #1, but that is hard to tell (see here ("the "caps" staff is working on it we are told (see here (comment #1 by tmfjake))))))

In 18 cases I have ended an "outperform" call that was "in the minus" and "reinstalled" that "outperform" call the same day or the next day. I consider this the "caps" way of "throwing good money after bad" or "doubling down". You increase your risk because now you can incur losses of more than 100%, a pleasure that is otherwise a privilege of "underperform" calls in the "caps" game (if you ignore the benchmark thing ...). Your upside is in "lowering the basis". This has worked out in 17/18 cases (make that 18/18 if EK has risen to more than $4.51 by the time you read this - it closed at $4.37 yesterday).

I guess the more important point is the first: DO CATCH FALLING KNIFES!

Some more knife catching is done by my "portefeuille unleashed" player (see here).

My somewhat more "conservative" (and pleasantly quiet) player is mantil (#3 "yes man" (no short-ETFs !)).

portefeuille would be #1/28950 in the "yes man" category overall and by score points (without using short-ETFs, so it IS possible to win that category playing "purely outperform" ...) had I not made 1/588 "underperform" call.


My "still higher beta" players are hdgf1 and hdgf2 (currently #5 of the "new players" and #77 overall, only stock-outperform and leveraged-short-ETF-underperform ratings).

What I am trying to say is, I guess, that my players have done Alright listening to neither i) nor ii).


10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 04, 2009 at 10:31 AM, belfairinvestor (28.84) wrote:


Nice picks during March. What will you do when the markets take a dive, whenever that may occur? Will you close all these picks or hold them open during the pain?

I've added each of your portfolios as favorites, as your high beta selections looked very good to me. I wish you would blog more about your stock selection criteria, as your skill should be evident to anyone paying attention.


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#2) On April 04, 2009 at 11:04 AM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

thank you, you remind me of what I wanted to include but forgot (dangerous to take a shower during a post, you lose the thread that easily ...), I wanted to promise to start writing some "pitches" ...

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#3) On April 06, 2009 at 6:31 PM, TigerPack1 (33.58) wrote:

Keep up the good work!!!

It appears you, or Frans, or UltraLong have the best shot at being number 1 in CAPS, with a bullish stance on stocks, for the first time in a long while.

I don't think I can get to 90%+ accuracy which has been my goal all along.  It looks like you CAN get to that number with 8000-9000 points in the next few months.

Frans has made so many picks, he is stuck in the low 80s, and UltraLong will make more picks at some point and come down to earth in terms of accuracy.

My money is still on YOU!!!  Keep the faith. 

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#4) On April 06, 2009 at 8:39 PM, belfairinvestor (28.84) wrote:

In response to Tiger (who should also blog!)-

I agree that Port has a fine chance of gaining #1 when an extended bull run comes, but BravoBevo and Ten Miles are already in good positions themselves. Bevo's small cap magic will work in either a bear or bull.

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#5) On April 06, 2009 at 8:41 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

Don't make me nervous!

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#6) On April 06, 2009 at 10:07 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

Here is my message to the 25 in front of me!

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#7) On April 06, 2009 at 10:16 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

and here to all

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#8) On April 06, 2009 at 10:18 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

not to forget: this

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#9) On April 06, 2009 at 10:43 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

I think it has been a good idea to refrain from writing "pitches". Hugh Hendry has put it quite nicely: 'How do I pick my stocks? I hear voices'

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#10) On April 07, 2009 at 4:01 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

voices help

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