Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

portefeuille (98.38)




April 09, 2009 – Comments (65)

I think I overdid it.

First I will try to some justification.

It all started with this guy hansschmidt. He started his "caps" portfolio on October 3 of last year. After a while he had made his 200th picks on October 22. By that time he had only closed 21 of his picks. He knew he was going to run into trouble because he knew he was only allowed to rate 200 stocks at a time, so he began ending picks at a somewhat faster pace. The market "tanked" and so did his score as he had made only "outperform" calls on stocks that had a pretty high beta and the benchmark was the S&P 500 so that did not come as a surprise to him.

Now he had the following idea.

He thought the market was going to turn around soon - very soon - so what would happen to his caps score? Well, it would probably go back to zero if the market went back to were it was when he started on October 3. So why not just start a new player, throw a copy of most of the junk from hansschmidt's portfolio into the knew one (and especially the stuff that was down the most, add some "new-52w-low ultra high beta" stuff?

Well, he did just that on November 20 and the new baby was called portefeuille!

He did one more thing: He started another new player, mantil, "while he was at it" ("you never know ...").

Creating these two new players he remembered having created still another player, tirezpour, on October 14, just a week and a half after hansschmidt, but that one he had never really (ab)use, so, well, here he was with his old sucker hansschmidt down some 2000 score points and 3 more or less shiny new players ... time for the market to turn around! It did. 741.02 was the intraday low for the S&P on November 21 and what followed was a quick rally up to the intraday high of 943.85 on January 6. Needless to say the 4 players did alright and portefeuille who was the higher beta brother of mantil became the "star" among them (and was "best new player" for most of his "new player" period).

Now this would be all nice if it had not been for one thing.

I (creator of our 4 players) really really hate to end a pick just because the portfolio is filled (200 picks just never seemed enough) so I started shifting the picks from one player to the next (I know, you can stop reading now and I really feel somewhat ashamed!). I even added new players to be able to rate more stocks because just as much as I hated ending picks I loved to start rating new stock (there is something to it, maybe I should ask zzlangerhans about it (OCD to some degree for sure!). I could not think of any clever names so here they are: nonefficient, algo1, markethypothesis and hedgefunda were created on January 12 (and never really used much), ahedgefund (also never really used much) and  hdgf1  were created on February 17 and hdgf2 on March 6 (another market low! That is part of the reason why he is currently in the top 100 alongside portefeuille and hansschmidt).

To make it short, I overdid and I will only use portefeuille and hdgf2 in the future. The rest is left untouched from now on, just to see what happens to them ...

(no, my name is not hans schmidt, but hans is my fourth "first name" and yes, I only have "4 first names" and I am not a prince or duke or something, it is just that in our family somehow everyone gets 4 first names. My sister does not like all 4 of them so she uses a version of her first first name that was created when my brother, two years older than she is, tried to say it)


65 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 09, 2009 at 2:47 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Finally, Caps' future Top Fool speaks up! What's up with the titles! ;)

First Rec. from me. A lot of people here can learn something from you if they are just willing to put more time following your moves and if you speak a little more to explain things for the not sophisticated.

Nice to meet you Hans! Lovely story (The 5 names).

Watching you carefully! :)


Report this comment
#2) On April 09, 2009 at 2:51 PM, blake303 (29.25) wrote:

Why not close all of your accounts except for one? I have gone from 99 to 0 back to 99 using a single account learning and making adjustments along the way. What good is CAPS as a learning tool if you jump to account after account if things temporarily do not go your way. This is precisely why CAPS ratings are bogus. To each his own, but I feel the community would be much better served if members used only one account.

Report this comment
#3) On April 09, 2009 at 3:03 PM, anchak (99.86) wrote:

Bloody hell..... and I discovered hansschmidt and always thought about similarities to other long profiles..... are great! However, there's one thing to comment - we all like rating stocks - and a full bullish strategy as these -would do well in a rising market - but these are really big mutual funds.

I hope you keep bringing novel ideas like these to the discussion.

Also ....can you please start putting some titles up? I know its almost become your signature style .....but there's no way to reference anything later - unless you remember exact date you posted something!

Report this comment
#4) On April 09, 2009 at 3:36 PM, SuperPicks (29.18) wrote:

I was a end of November rebirth but have gone more short as of late.  And will go very short once (or if) S&P 500 hits intraday 990 or intraday volatility index (^VIX) hits a low of 30 or less. 

Whichever comes first 30 VIX or 990 S&P, I'll go short crazy.  Right now, I'm okay with marginally shot to neutral. 

Report this comment
#5) On April 09, 2009 at 3:43 PM, FreundInvesting (29.47) wrote:

wowzers, that's a lotta accounts!

I also have one other... FREUNDDOGGY

Report this comment
#6) On April 09, 2009 at 4:31 PM, portefeuille (98.38) wrote:

1,2, I kind of like the score of hdgf2 today: 4,999.20 (+1333.14)

Report this comment
#7) On April 10, 2009 at 7:06 AM, TMEBenBenBen (< 20) wrote:

'Inspirational' says TMEBenBenBen (soon to be TMEBenBenBen 'Senior')

Report this comment
#8) On April 10, 2009 at 12:41 PM, RookieQB (29.72) wrote:

+ 1 Rec for Blake303

Report this comment
#9) On April 12, 2009 at 10:28 PM, TigerPack1 (53.46) wrote:

You and I should be solidly placed on the first page (in the Top 20) in this game during the next few weeks.

I am fascinated by all the talk by shorts, most every market timer on tv and in this game that has turned negative on the monster Bull rally the past few trading days, as they claim it cannot rise this fast for much longer.  My master indicator of nearly 20 successfully backdated and real time use fundamental, technical and psychology indicators has been at Record Bullish readings (or at least the best level since late 1982-early 1983) for 3 weeks now, and has not retreated much in the last week.  All systems are still a go for the rally to continue.  I have never seen the kind of activity, anger and nervousness by short sellers like what I have been reading on the message boards and blogs this weekend.  Incredible buying power is about to move into stocks soon.

I promise you a Dow 400+ UP day is lurking out there somewhere the next 3-5 weeks.  Once the Dow is flirting with 10,000 and the S&P is nearer 1000 before the end of May, most every BEAR will really be confused or will have covered in disgust or downright poverty (margin calls).  At that point, I believe the market will take a breather during the summer months.

Keep the faith, and hold strong Mr. Long on American business.  We may have to duel later in the year for the top spot, so don't lose your thinking cap!

Report this comment
#10) On April 12, 2009 at 11:20 PM, portefeuille (98.38) wrote:


Report this comment
#11) On April 13, 2009 at 7:15 AM, translator999 (99.93) wrote:

Power to you, Portfeuille and Tigerpack. I will enjoy watching your duel! Hopefully we can all profit together (I mean IRL, of course). FWIW (and that's probably not much), TigerPack, my gut instinct is in synch with your indicators.

Report this comment
#12) On April 13, 2009 at 2:26 PM, portefeuille (98.38) wrote:

my favourite duellist: Galois

Report this comment
#13) On April 13, 2009 at 2:37 PM, portefeuille (98.38) wrote:

while we are at it:

one of my favourite books (I especially like the foreword being more extensive than the main text) and one of my favourite interviews ...

Report this comment
#14) On April 13, 2009 at 6:11 PM, TigerPack1 (53.46) wrote:

Nice work today portefeuille and translator!

I have been keeping an eye on both of you and others that seem to be best prepared for a strong bull market run.

bullishbabo (or something like that for the spelling), ultralong and frans seem like worthy competition in the months to come also.

I am shooting for 8000-10000 points and closer to 90% accuracy for the number ONE spot by year-end.

In the real world I have been buying EBAY and VNQ.  I think a basket of REITs (VNQ) perhaps provides the best levered upside, with little downside risk [since nobody in their right mind would touch them after a real estate collapse and mutli-decade credit crunch only the strong hands of the world own them now] considering my fear of high rates of inflation in the next economic upturn.  For a 3-5 year investment horizon, you can capture 5%-7% annual dividend yields while you wait for the bigger oversized capital gains when real estate prices begin to rise.

From $80 a year and a half ago, the VNQ's bottomed around $20.  They are still a great long-term buy around $30 in my estimation.

Also, I am waiting for the gold bull run to crack some the next few weeks, as fear subsides and money really MOVES from cash and gold back into the stock market.  Once we get more investors and speculators to believe in the rally, AND GOLD MAY PROVIDE THE BEST CLUE OF THIS, I will start covering more of my CAPS picks and higher-risk "short squeeze" and small cap stock positions in the real world (that have been flying higher for many weeks now).

I have been rolling over some of my high risk, big profit positions already into lagging blue-chips seeing some arbitrage unwinding from low risk to high risk investments.  Companies like JNJ, KO, PEP, KMB, WAG, BDX and others are terrificly valued today for the economic recovery and inflation that are fast approaching.

Report this comment
#15) On April 13, 2009 at 6:20 PM, TigerPack1 (53.46) wrote:

AND bullmarketn09 of course, I almost forget him/her.

we all seem to be picking stocks from his/her list ---