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portefeuille (99.66)

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April 16, 2009 – Comments (20)

time is up for the passive strategy of those so called "top fools"

it is not working any more

they are close to being kicked out of the top10 list 

#4) On February 11, 2009 at 12:05 AM, foolsMeThrice (99.63) wrote:

practicing the words of the great warren buffet will be greatly rewarding.  The top players here can't shift gears even though this is when your supposed to buy.  I don't know if you've noticed but their scores have mostly flatlined.  So in all of this turmoil, since October I've gone from 4000 points to 9000 caught up and passed those I thought were unreachable.  And I thought this was a bear market.

and what is really refreshing is that the "newcomers" do not even use these sucker tricks!

(relax, some of you are not that bad!)

peace!

20 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 16, 2009 at 12:12 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

...

"newcomers" very fitting to use quotations on that:)

A n B: such that ........ahhhh let's keep it simple. If you have account(s) from over 5 months ago and you open a new one, you are a "newcomer". If this is your first account on caps, then you are a newcomer. 

Are you a Math Professor?

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#2) On April 16, 2009 at 1:59 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

No, not a math professor.

This post is by the way me trying to deliver on my promise:

#18) On March 20, 2009 at 10:51 PM, portefeuille (99.98) wrote:

    okay - you are right gnubee, I will stop blogging until I am one of the top ten. Then I will start some serious top 10 bashing. I will keep adding to my (secret) portefeuille-portfolio though.

    See you then!

Since I kept blogging I thought I could at least try the bashing ...

 

 

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#3) On April 16, 2009 at 3:01 PM, TigerPack1 (83.75) wrote:

Update on progress of the Bulls:

#10, 11, 12, 15, 19 & 27 of the Top 30 are clearly in a bullish stock market CAPS stance right now, and all have been gaining spots daily!

Keep up the good work. When the economic numbers start looking better in a few months, the Dow will be flirting with 10,000 and the S&P 500 with 1,000.  Congrats to the true contrarians in the world, who can think for themselves!!!

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#4) On April 16, 2009 at 3:06 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

this is bashing? That is funny. No point in doing that stuff, unless the person getting bashed knows it is suppose to be a joke.

 I don't think I have seen a CAPS player using function notation on the site as of yet. Pretty funny though. I think you were more or less trying to find the unions and intersections of favorite players, but I couldn't really tell with the notation. 

Got to be an engineer, but I wouldn't pass on somebody that had a more refined mathematics degree.

To quit blogging is easy, but with titles like "..." and "..." why would you want to:)

I would say best of luck on your goal/promis, but I don't think you need it. Instead a sensless joke instead.

God walks up to Adam and tells him that he is going to create his opposite finally. God explains that every creature on Earth has their opposite, except for man (Adam). So God goes into describing her (Eve):

She will cook the best meals you ever imagined, clean the entire house and then some, bear the most marvelous children, hunt when you are sick, never leave you, and the best part is that she will love only you.

Adam thinks great, when do I get to meet her?

God explains that there is only one problem. Adam needs to give up his leg, so Eve can be created.

Adam takes a step back as God pulls out the hack saw and Adam says....wo, wo, wo. What do you think I could get for a rib?

Enjoy your success! It's been fun to watch.

 

 

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#5) On April 16, 2009 at 3:40 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I admit that this has not really been bashing (but since I am not really in the top10 yet (#11 an hour ago) I might as well do some warm-up!).

When you follow the link in one of today's posts you find the following (usually I quit reading after a few seconds when I notice that it is "one of those posts again" (the ones that I somehow just cannot force myself to read), but for some strange reason I managed to get to this part):

Nearly all of the top fools - Dwot, SpecBear, GMX, Abitare, Alstry, Deej, StatsGeek, EverydayInvestor, DemonDoug, Dexion (and I could go on and on), all believe that we are in for more pain.

Comment #4 above is a nice response to that (and even added some stats (!)).

(not an engineer either (mathematics was closer!))

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#6) On April 16, 2009 at 4:03 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

Actuary?! That would explain the notation and the funny blog about polynomial and exponential functions blog. It would also explain the hedge accounts and the sheer number of accounts. It would also explainthe thought of your OCD:) Just kidding of course.

I would be surprised you didn't pull out a combinatorics post in regards to a strategy of 64 accounts.  If you were an actuary.

Anywhere close?

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#7) On April 16, 2009 at 4:16 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

... no, theoretical physics, so not very close (in the corner opposite to actuaries and engineers).

(correction: in "comment #5" "comment #4" should be "comment #3")

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#8) On April 16, 2009 at 4:54 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

I was saying physicist in my head, but I didn't want to let myself think that:) So is space curved? This work doesn't explain the OCD though. I thought I was on to something there. I wish I had one more guess before you said what you were. It would have been fun to guess right....not deduce.

I didn't get the comment 4 comparison, so thanks for the correction. 

 "(in the corner opposite to actuaries and engineers)" as to my comment about not wanting to think that.......I have a degree in Mathematics.........but I don't use it like I should. The comment was just all in good fun. Nothing meant by it other than the fact that your corner opposite comment knows the thoughts of the other side. Not much love there for some reason.

Take care.

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#9) On April 16, 2009 at 5:56 PM, TigerPack1 (83.75) wrote:

I am projecting we get our short seller back-breaker 400+ point UP DAY on the Dow Industrials (and record panic short covering) in the next 10 trading days!!!

Perhaps it coincides or is ignited by the "stress test" bank results that will come out next week from the U.S. Treasury.

Another day of massive short covering today in several groups, and gold began to crack some, both signs fear is subsiding about the financial system.  Dow 9,000+ should be here by early May.  It's my guess right now after a summer breather, we will break Dow 10,000 in November or December 2009.  I am sure we will see record inflow numbers back into mutual funds by May from the record stash in money markets and bank accounts hungry to earn more than 0%!!!

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#10) On April 16, 2009 at 7:03 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

maybe.

That would leave me with 20.000 score points or so if I left my "caps" portfolio untouched (which I will not do!).

And it would be time to add some more out-of-the-money call options!

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#11) On April 17, 2009 at 11:27 AM, TigerPack1 (83.75) wrote:

I still worry about RedneckStocks and his/her 200 oil bull picks.

If oil skyrockets from $50US to more like $100 a barrel next year and he/she just keeps his/her picks, I come up with 90%+ accuracy and 10,000+ points as a serious possibility.

Can you imagine 200 picks with an 'average' gain of 50%!!!

He/she would make the rest of us look pretty bad, with a first place position in CAPS, using a one sector buy-n-hold strategy for a year or so.

Are there any other oil bulls out there positioned like Redneck?

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#12) On April 17, 2009 at 12:15 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I have no idea, didn't even know redneckstocks existed ...

Maybe there will be a follow-up paper from Harvard/Yale mentioning us as the ultimate bearers of insider knowledge (something like ... tigerpack and portefeuille seemed to know it all in advance ... we quote from their private conversation in this obscure "caps" blog that remained completely unnoticed by all other players (with the notable exception of madcowmonkey) ...).

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#13) On April 17, 2009 at 1:37 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

you put a link in to the same blog. I think you are repeating your last blog:) I think you over did it.

redneck has some energy and natural gas plays in the port as well. I think I caught that portfolio a little while back. Using the "start date" as the order for the caps stock page. This is the idea some people came up with a while back when oil was in the thirty's. Long run will be a nice payoff in that sector bet.

Too bad the blog started out as a weak demonstration of "bashing" players.

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#14) On April 17, 2009 at 1:59 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

no, I really meant this blog. Go ahead and start a new post, this time with a headline and a more conciliatory beginning and then just copy & paste the better part of this discussion!

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#15) On April 17, 2009 at 2:03 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

If we all (the 3 of us) give it a recommendation it would be off to a good start!

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#16) On April 17, 2009 at 2:34 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

You would leave all three of us open to some BS about being the same. No thanks. I get tired of ignoring posts.....I do get a good laugh out of some of them though.

  "I really meant this blog" yeah...I know, but I still had to click to see if you really did put a link in for the same blog.

Look at portefeuille trying to be a rec hog:) comment 15

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#17) On April 17, 2009 at 4:16 PM, foolsMeThrice (99.65) wrote:

thanks for quoting me again.  But it was precisely when my score somewhat flatlined, though in the long term I should be alright.  Then a mechanical spike upward occurred when people started to have more faith in the government intervention (quantitative easing).   I closed out some picks and went temporarily bearish because there still is a little too much optimism about our situation.  Our best prospect is an L shaped recovery and that is optimistic.  Though that does not mean there will not be any shining gems out there to be snatched up at depression level evaluations. 

In my real portfolio I've achieved 45% return since december 2008 without leverage and my average price to book is still well below 1. So I don't fear the next downward leg so much because I survived one.  I am 96% long with a single hedge to the down side comprising about 13% of my portfolio: an ultra short which actually partially offsets my RSUs so I am still net long.  I am also 10% cash right now.  My real portfolio consists of about 25 picks.  I currently sport 79% accuracy (not measured against the S&P).

Even though I expect a deep downward leg, I still have faith in my positions because the price to book value essentially puts a floor beneath them.  I went into cash and a downside hedge to be able to snatch up more in the event that they go lower.

Will this work out? Only time will tell.

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#18) On April 17, 2009 at 7:13 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

You were also mentioned here (comments #16,17).

Has anyone read the paper I mentioned in comment #12 above? I think there might be an error on page 21/39 of the pdf-document. Maybe we could discuss that before I contact the authors ...

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#19) On April 18, 2009 at 7:43 PM, anchak (99.86) wrote:

Hans....I will read the paper in detail and see what you are referring to

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#20) On April 18, 2009 at 8:14 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

... please don't call me Hans. It is my fourth "first name" and not my favourite one!

I take issue with this part (in light of table 1, table 6a and other things):

This change in portfolios suggests that CAPS participants were influenced by market returns favoring “Large Caps” and “High Momentum” stocks, but also that they were responding to these market conditions with a lag rather than anticipating them.

I will try to write down some problems/suggestions I have with/for the paper. tmfjake appears to be involved and has suggested sending him a message (see comment #17 here). 

 

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