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portefeuille (99.66)

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April 18, 2009 – Comments (11)

2 months ago (February 18) I started a list of "caps"-style ratings.

I did not choose to start another "caps player" so I could include "ratings" for "not currently ratable" stocks and so I could "rate" more than 200 stocks at a time if I wanted to without "crashing the caps server".

I made 169 "outperform" "picks" between February 18 and March 12. The average performance of those picks is ca. +64% as of today.

March 12 was chosen as cutoff somewhat arbitrarily (I wanted to include the stock market low of March 6 and to give all picks some time "to develop").

The S&P 500 index opened at 791.06 on February 18 and closed at 750.74 on March 12. The index had its intraday low on March 6 at 666.79 and closed on Friday at 869.60 (+30.42% from the low).

It might be of some interest that you can have a 64% return with a well diversified portfolio that you buy "into" and "out of" the low.

I would say that some 80% of those picks were cases of "catching a falling knife" - maybe not such a bad idea after all (around 70% of my portefeuille picks fall into that same category).

(My best catch was GM on March 6, 11:43 AM, at $1.27 (#107). I know I was lucky but still ... 1.27 was the 52 week low and it stayed there for little more than a minute. GM is the only pick I have "ended" so far, at 3.06 (#274).)

Here is a list of the best and worst of those 169 picks (ticker and percentage change):

ACAS 272
BGP 245
CENX 244
FITB 231
BCS 223
MIC 203
HGSI 196
SEH 179
LYG 175
VVTV 174
BAC 164
XTNT 163
C 161
UNCFF.PK 156
ING 155
LVS 153
GM 141
TWI 138
BLDP 137
CTV 132
TSFG 132
JBL 128
F 123
GMK 123
EBKDY.PK 117
SWCEY.PK 116
HUN 115
IO 110
HLX 105
GNK 100
ALU 99
MTW 97
DOW 96
VIP 95
FCE-A 94
JDSU 94
AXA 93
AWC 92
CSE 91
CRAY 91
WFC 90
...
...

...
ACTS 24
CSCO 24
JDAS 24
ADPT 22
TLAB 22
AMZN 22
LIFE 21
NOVL 20
TWX 20
WAT 20
SA 19
EMC 19
SQNM 18
SGP 18
HON 17
OWW 17
KDE 16
VG 15
VIGN 15
BP 14
RNWK 14
PDLI 13
RMBS 11
PTIE 9
GERN 8
UL 8
ONT 6
VRUS 4
ABTL 3
OREX -2
QGEN -3
TSCM -4
SLV -8
RHIE -9
UNG -13
NG -13
M3V.DE -14
ERPL.PK -53

11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 18, 2009 at 3:17 PM, anchak (99.83) wrote:

Man I have to say you are slowly converging to a rant......

portefeuille(Hans) ....you are a very smart guy. However, like GMX you are mixing up real-life investing with paper-trading ( with no capital allocation...thus equiweighted) in CAPS

Out of the all the innumerable fictional choices - how many did you invest in real-life? Would you care to put the $ after your picks?

Is it possible for anyone ( including yourself) to follow this Portfolio Mutual Fund.....would anyone be interested in investing in it? What's the difference between this and a Small-Cap Index ( which will market weigh) - maybe an equi-weighed one?

Lets take 2 of your top picks : CENX and FITB ... Now given I see these ( my feeling is given your analytical trait - they were both some sort of an automated screener pick - since they both were in mine) and don't see HBAN ....makes for a clear pointer to a mechanical strategy which is all long - UNHEDGED!

Between you and Tigerpack - my vote actually goes to Tiger - because he backs himself with real $ ( he has been long UYG in real-life since Nov 21st). He is gutsy and stubborn ( man just upgraded the whole REIT sector last week!). Kinda like someone I know ( and I am not talking about myself in disguise) - who bet about close to six figures on C at .97 and BAC at 3. I could only muster up courage for barely 4 figures!.  I sold the last of these yesterday.

Also I bought FITB and HBAN during Mar 6-9 and was stopped out - that's what happens in real-life - you can't sit merry like in CAPS and garner accuracy - I try to mirror it as much as possible to my RL strategy ( other than obvious nonsense like .PK , .OB, the whole Proshares list ) - hence I TOOK IT IN THE CHIN IN CAPS - on 3/30 I closed all my Shorts - and completely destroyed my Accuracy for good  ( NO TOP 20 FOOL  will ever do this, such is the nature of this game -  there ONE KNOWN EXCEPTION - Floridabuilder - do some research you'll know what I mean)  - and thus possibly writing off any chance of being in the Top 100. But at the end of the day - some good folks are gracious enough to follow me - and there really wasn't anything I could do but to flash a warning.

Yes we all come to CAPS to play the game - by dueling with GMX and abitare on that very point - you paint yourself in a reclusive club, unfortunately.

Let me give you names of 2 players  - who try to portray their very best of RL investing style in CAPS - and see how the game rewards them - manucastle and EclecticRecluse

I am going against my usual style and letting you have it here - I sincerely apologize for that.

But really should I take every cent of my savings - and invest it in your Unhedged Long strategy - and be able to sleep at night for the next 2 years - and come out a millionaire?

The very best to you in your quest in gaining Top fool status - but really I thought one of the goals of the Fool was to help pepople better their investment strategy.

Your portfolio serves value in its present form to figure out which stocks the hedgies decide to run-up in this frenzy on a particular day

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#2) On April 18, 2009 at 3:26 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

it is neither a portfolio nor small cap, is it?

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#3) On April 18, 2009 at 4:06 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

some large caps among the 169 picks:
GE 130B market cap. (USD), 606B enterprise value (USD), 44% (change), Feb 27 (date of call)
BP 125B, 150B, 13%, Mar 2
AAPL 109B, 84B, 38%, Mar 5
CSCO 105B, 82B, 23%, Mar 5
WFC 85B, 333, 89%, Mar 2
OGZPY.PK 101B, 39%, Mar2

 

 

 

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#4) On April 18, 2009 at 4:12 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

completely destroyed my Accuracy for good  ( NO TOP 20 FOOL will ever do this, such is the nature of this game -  there ONE KNOWN EXCEPTION - Floridabuilder)

I believe I do nothing to improve my accuracy!

 

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#5) On April 18, 2009 at 4:34 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

... alright, I will quit commenting on that list.

I have never given any advice and am not planning on starting to do so.

And I think I do not really want to be #1 in this game, I just want to make the "best possible" calls.

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#6) On April 18, 2009 at 5:37 PM, anchak (99.83) wrote:

Hans....let me apologize again ( I did so at the end of the first comment) - I knew the comment was VERY STRONG....however you are close to a top fool now - and CAPS is not exactly a game - a lot of people actually base their investment decisions on it.

For eg. I discovered PRFT thru CAPS - lovely little company - no great shakes - simple balance sheet - will emerge stronger thru this downturn. I have traded it. If I am convinced about the economy I will possibly invest..... I pick it often in CAPS and always with 5Y timeframe - hoping people notice the trend - and pick something up.

You said: "I have never given any advice and am not planning on starting to do so" - You are wrong - UNKNOWINGLY you are giving advice - you have a large following - people do that for some reason.

I saw your comment on the anticdude's blog - where he was talking about the lesson of losing $200,000 in a short time - thankfully its his college's endowment funds' smallest slice - and they of course don't exactly micro-manage. But the point of CAPS is not to start profiles to "catch-the-knife" and hope it sticks!

But again - as I said you are smart person ( I would not mind corresponding with you in Real-life - you like math - I do to - you are welcome to touch-base if you choose to do so) - every portfolio you started have been essentially trying to "catch-a-bottom" and then go NAKED LONG with High-Beta picks.

I run other profiles here in CAPS too - but each has a distinctive strategy. Like Tastylunch - who likes to call CAPS his watchlist portfolio - my main profile is my "experimentation" one. I run a simple unhedged long profile ( Started in the week of the worst drop and contrarian long, I call it the index) , One hedged long ( where I painfully started to see first hand the decay of Ultrashorts) , and another all ETF experimentation play - hoping to catch these POS at the bottom of the long-term bull revival and shorting them to oblivion - just for grotesque CAPS satisfaction - its also all long index funds.

And in RL....you know what I did between Mar6-9 - for majority of my portfolios/investment - I went long UNLEVERED INDEX FUNDS - unfortunately that's the practical strategy for most investors.

I think portefeuille  is doing really great. You also believe its time to be long ( Incidentally, I also haven't closed most of my  5Y long picks done during the Mar 6-9 - you'll see they are not High-Beta - lot of them are not even beating the index - thus a complete loser vis-a-vis CAPS - but I intend to hold , because like you its a test of the Mar 9 bottom call)

If you start feeling that its time to take bets of the table - I suggest you pick any of your other profiles - stick to it - and either hedge - or close longs - for other people's consumption.

There is a slight responsbility attached now my friend. Think about it.

Also you never answered my question ( I think GV asked too) - what you do in RL

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#7) On April 18, 2009 at 5:54 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

see comment #7 here

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#8) On April 18, 2009 at 7:42 PM, anchak (99.83) wrote:

Hmmm....theoretical physics...My background is in Stats and Comp Sc ( Computational Intelligence).....

And you are bullish like hell....talking about out-of-money calls from here with Tigerpack!

My friend....Tiger's been with GV a long time ( in fact he asked him to join CAPS) - he's a mega bull. We may all be wrong - and you guys will possibly rack-up 25000+ points ( incidentally whichever portfolio you started on Mar 6-9 ....definitely don't touch - I do not need to tell you how the CAPS machine works on positive picks - right..... like my CRBC pick - I got my 1.50 price - and there really not much point to close it ever in CAPS!)

But as I was saying - this needs to pull-back , if it doesn't and alstry or abitareperfect plays it well they will be Top fool before you guys do!

 

 

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#9) On April 18, 2009 at 7:57 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I have some out-of-the-money EMC call options (different strikes and maturities) ...

It seems to be my favourite stock right now.

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#10) On April 19, 2009 at 2:24 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

The list can be found here.

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#11) On August 16, 2009 at 3:14 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

GO AHEAD, hehe ...

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