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portefeuille (99.78)

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April 29, 2009 – Comments (23)

Tonight was the first night in the top10 of the "caps" game for me. I was somewhere between #8 and #16 or so in the last two days so it is pretty "dense" in this area. My score points did not change by much but having an accuracy of 81% leads to a far different rank than having one of 82%. As a "rule of thumb" you could say that "up here" a gain of one point in the accuracy is equivalent to a gain of 1000 score points (and it is much easier to gain the former, I believe).

Now since the new feature that lets you separate score points gained via "outperform" from those gained via "underperform" calls (hopefully the inverse ETFs will count in the "inverse" category) has not arrived yet (should be here by the middle of May) I wonder where I am ranked if you only consider the "outperform" score points. I am really to lazy to do the copy&paste work again to check the current top10 (I have done it once for the top8 and only bravobevo had scored considerably that way at the time) and I suspect many of the "outperform" top10 do not come from the "old fashioned" top20. Just in case anyone else "can't wait" and calculates his "outperform" score point (please do not count "inverse"/"bear" ETFs) I suggest that those player post their "outperform" score points here (as a comment ...).

(portefeuille, 7983.40 points)

The resulting "outperform" ranking could have several positive effects:

1) I would be number one (not sure and just joking. Really ...)

2) Apparently some players like to "follow" others and I am not talking about this "groupie" thing under "favorites". (One player has even warned me recently that I should be careful with what I write and what I "recommend" because I have "a following" whether I wanted that or not and some of what I write in my blog posts could be considered a "recommendation". (I think he specifically meant my "recommendation" to "catch falling knifes" and to "throw good money after bad" found here and he asked me whether I would really recommend putting all money into "unhedged" positions in "small cap high beta stocks". (I am not sure whether I would have recommended doing that at the time but I really still believe that no one should consider what I write or "do" here as any kind of recommendation.))) Well, if they really want to follow someone (especially "going long") they might want to see who did best in the past via "outperform" calls). But, please, just don't follow anyone! (This was a recommendation!)

3) It would open a new field of competition.

4) Many players would consider moving out of "yes man" land. 

There will be probably more and "better" effects, let's just wait and see ...

 

23 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 29, 2009 at 9:28 AM, Quantemonics1 (99.70) wrote:

I have noticed my rank flying around between 14 and 21 the last few days on little change in the markets also.

My goal is still 10,000 points and 90% accuracy by year-end, including an average pick gain of around +10%!

If you can beat that, I will gladly hand over the title right now for the #1 spot. Otherwise, prepare to duel later in the year.

Keep the faith!  Our 400-500 point Dow Industrial UP day is fast approaching.

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#2) On April 29, 2009 at 9:37 AM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

I still have my magic weapon DNDN (maybe for another week) ...

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#3) On April 29, 2009 at 9:51 AM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

These posts always make me laugh. I looked at the yes man leaderboard.....don't you already have the number one spot with mantil?

Up trending markets are alot easier to be a yes man than when the S&P is down 40%. Not to take anything away from you, but just something to consider. Take a gander at your picks when the market is down 5% and now imagine them when the market is down 30% or more. An entirely new ball game. It is funny to see all the new ports that are on the yes board that have just started within the last couple of months:) It looks like you have a few ports yourself. Did you have any ports on here before November?

Just something to chew on.

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#4) On April 29, 2009 at 10:11 AM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

hansschmidt is the oldest (comparison) and started on October 3, 2008. The S&P 500 opened at 1115.16 that day. So here we are ca. 21% lower for the benchmark and more than 4500 score points (excluding the 4/520 "underperform" calls, no inverse ETFs). I would not necessarily consider "the market" in the time between October 3 and today as "Up trending" ...

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#5) On April 29, 2009 at 10:22 AM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

Perfect example....go to the hansschmidt and hit all. Take at look at  the date 10-16 and look at TM and RIG. One was ended when the market was up 5%, the other has not been ended and the market is down 1%............guess which one is in the points.

That is all I was trying to point out. 

Thanks for that.

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#6) On April 29, 2009 at 10:24 AM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

For a conclusive list of my players see here (okay, there is one more: 20minutedelay, created to prove something but I just did not want waste my time with that "project" and if there is still another one I have forgotten about it). Only portefeuille is active since the date of the abovementioned post (yes, I did close some leveraged ETF picks in the following week, but that I just had to do).

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#7) On April 29, 2009 at 10:25 AM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

sorry....market is down 5%

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#8) On April 29, 2009 at 10:25 AM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

for the latter

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#9) On April 29, 2009 at 10:31 AM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

I really cannot see anything that makes the two picks you mentioned above so special. And please don't hold me responsible for what I do (I hear voices) ...

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#10) On April 29, 2009 at 10:40 AM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

I am well aware that an "uptrending market" is not the worst that could happen to you if you have "long high beta picks", but by "choosing the beta", picking the right sectors , good timing and some clever stock picks (and always listen to the voices!) you can lose less in the downtrends than you gain in the uptrends. And the "caps" game has a benchmark that is supposed to annihilate the simple market trend (killing the stuff with beta = 1 so to say).

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#11) On April 29, 2009 at 10:50 AM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

:)

 ... time for the market to turn around! It did. 741.02 was the intraday low for the S&P on November 21 and what followed was a quick rally up to the intraday high of 943.85 on January 6. Needless to say the 4 players did alright and portefeuille who was the higher beta brother of mantil became the "star" among them (and was "best new player" for most of his "new player" period).

the theory makes complete sense by the way. And I don't hold anybody responsible on caps.

The reason for the two that I picked are:

RIG was picked at the same time as TM.

RIG is still open and the S&P is down 5%.

TM was closed when the S&P had gained 5%.

Which one do you think scored points?

Maybe I should have asked if you had any ports open before May of 08 not one month before November where you showed the low of the S&P. It is a much different ball game when the S&P has dropped 30% and there are ports that have all green thumbs in them, yet you compare your port to them. The funny part is that if you look at the yes man leaderboard, there are very few ports before November of 08 and the ones that are didn't make too many picks until recently. So there is an obvious advantage for players that make new portfolios and a sever disadvantage for those that had been in the game during the drop of 40%. Does that make sense?

I still love the theory you used BTW and have fun with your posts.

OT- how many people have asked you to stop using the title "..." I think that is probably the best part of your blogs. It is too funny.

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#12) On April 29, 2009 at 10:53 AM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

(hansschmidt just crossed the 5000 line).

I am currently ranked #11,21,41,47,85,165,201,210,307,504,852,6466 but all but portefeuille have been inactive for quite some time and so will be thrown out of the ranking system in a couple of weeks, I guess)

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#13) On April 29, 2009 at 11:06 AM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

"..." is the best part? Maybe I should really quit writing blog posts.

And what theory did I use. And what are "ports"? And no, no player before October 3, 2008 from me. And hansschmidt recovered somewhat "better" than the market and the market was down ca. 40% from the open on October 3 (1115.16) to the low of March 6 (666.79). And hansschmidt did Alright (I think) ...

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#14) On April 29, 2009 at 11:07 AM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

and this post must have been really bad. no recommendations. oh well ...

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#15) On April 29, 2009 at 1:16 PM, SuperPicks (29.74) wrote:

Congratulations.

If I didn't abandon going long back in March I would've been in top30 with you.  Its funny when we bring our two charts together, it becomes obvious where I went short.  

I didn't have the guts to be as long as you.

And I still wouldn't be surprised to see the market go 7-15% higher from here.  If that were to happen (or if volatility-VIX hits 30), I will clear out most my longs & go ultra short.  I'll also go net short in my personal portfolio (which is neutral-slightly short right now).

Nice to see your 20minutedelay player.  You're going to rape accuracy with this player, right?  I think if you could just hit spot on with accuracy with even just 100-300 picks sometime this year, you'd be on top.  Points will only be a secondary concern with this player, right?

Just my thoughts.

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#16) On April 29, 2009 at 1:28 PM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

20minutedelay was supposed to show how easy it is to get a free lunch in the "caps" game (see comment #10 here). I just thought it is not really necessary to prove it by doing it.

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#17) On April 29, 2009 at 9:30 PM, BigFatBEAR (30.12) wrote:

Congrats on your success, good to see some new blood in the top 10. :)

As a request, I don't mind the "..." titles, but the "quotes" around everything "do" make it seem like you're speaking "sarcastically" or at least "tongue-in-cheek". Are you? Either way, it's kind of annoying and makes it "hard" to follow your thoughts.

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#18) On April 30, 2009 at 1:20 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.97) wrote:

Its too bad they don't include average gain per pick... 56% on 119 picks aint half bad =)

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#19) On April 30, 2009 at 4:41 AM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

It is not too bad (trying to do without "" and ...) but you are a little ultra long and a high average pick score does not surprise me that much. My player hdgf2 has an average pick score of ca. 38 with much less leveraged ETFs, so 56 is very plausible (a comparison). He will of course have a harder time reaching an accuracy of over 90% but I do not really care too much about the accuracy. Annualized average pick score seems to be much more relevant. I tend to throw out stuff very fast so portefeuille is doing o.k. as to his annualized average pick even though his average pick score looks pretty average. (I am missing the "" already! Maybe I should lose some parentheses as well.)

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#20) On April 30, 2009 at 4:54 AM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

The internet can be cruel: 

1 (but 2! (2 is #1 of the google search results))

I like "as to" (no way to do without "" there I am afraid)!

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#21) On April 30, 2009 at 10:54 PM, sentinelbrit (93.25) wrote:

Thanks for your comment on my blog. I take it back - you are not like the other top players with their heavily laden underperform oriented portfolios. I personally think MF should have a long only portfolio competition. Also, my stocks are real money which makes the whole game much more significant for me. Paper portfolios  prove very little about the ability of a person to pick stocks. But it must be very gratifying to be among the top 10 in CAPs.

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#22) On May 01, 2009 at 12:14 AM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

no, not really. maybe if I were #1 by I wide margin and there were more real participants ...

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#23) On May 01, 2009 at 12:14 AM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

... by a wide ...

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