Ellipsis
May 13, 2009
– Comments (47)
update for "the list"
12 weeks ago (February 18) I started a list of "caps"-style ratings.
I did not choose to start another "caps player" so I could include "ratings" for "not currently ratable" stocks and so I could "rate" more than 200 stocks at a time if I wanted to without "crashing the caps server".
I made 169 "outperform" "picks" between February 18 and March 12. The average performance of those picks is ca. +84% as of today.
March 12 was chosen as cutoff somewhat arbitrarily (I wanted to include the stock market low of March 6 and to give all picks some time "to develop").
The S&P 500 index opened at 791.06 on February 18 and closed at 750.74 on March 12. The index had its intraday low on March 6 at 666.79 and closed on Tuesday at 908.35 (+36.23% from the low).
It might be of some interest that you can have an 84% return with a well diversified portfolio that you buy "into" and "out of" the low.
I would say that some 80% of those picks were cases of "catching a falling knife" - maybe not such a bad idea after all (around 70% of my portefeuille picks fall into that same category).
(My best catch was GM on March 6, 11:43 AM, at $1.27 (#107). I know I was lucky but still ... 1.27 was the 52 week low and it stayed there for little more than a minute. GM is the only pick I have "ended" so far, at 3.06 (#274).)
Here is a list of the best and worst of those 169 picks (ticker and percentage change):
CENX 586
ACAS 552
MIC 322
BGP 305
HGSI 304
LVS 276
BCS 240
IO 231
LYG 226
FITB 216
ING 203
F 193
SEH 191
GMK 188
MTW 177
JBL 176
UNCFF.PK 174
HUN 173
CSE 172
EBKDY.PK 167
BAC 163
VVTV 159
IP 158
DOW 156
NVAX 151
CTV 147
XTNT 143
GM 141
HLX 140
GNK 140
C 139
EXAS 135
SWCEY.PK 131
EXPE 125
RBS 120
WFC 120
HL 120
JAVA 118
BLDP 117
HIG 116
VIP 115
ALU 115
WYNN 112
CX 109
SKX 109
TWI 108
AXA 107
JDSU 106
CDE 102
YMI 101
...
...
...
LNUX 11
UL 11
PTIE 7
RHIE 7
NG 6
SLV 4
VRUS 4
QGEN -1
OREX -3
M3V.DE -6
TSCM -13
UNG -19
ERPLQ.PK -67
SQNM -72