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portefeuille (99.78)

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June 07, 2009 – Comments (12)

There seems to be quite a bit of speculation going on in the "caps" game blog section as to whether you should/could "follow" other "caps" game players "with real money" (see for example this post).

Have a look at this:

 

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#4) On May 13, 2009 at 10:41 AM, its007again (< 20) wrote:

I have been following you.  I am impressed.  You have been at the top for a while.  Enjoy your success.  Focus on the your original objectives.  I believe you did it for yourself ... you want to win this stupid thing.  You entered here on their site, accepting their rules & their measure of success.  You either make #1 or you do not.  I hope you are not rationalizing or getting distracted.  This is not easy.  I think you will do it before Fall 2009.  Please do not scew up, I base many trades on you. 

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#6) On May 13, 2009 at 2:39 PM, portefeuille (99.98) wrote:

Please do not scew up, I base many trades on you.

Well, I do not "endorse" that ...  

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(from here)

 

Here is my question. Who based trades on calls by other "caps" game players and how has that "turned out" so far? You can write something like "I made/lost a few million that way ...", or you can give more details ...

 

 

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 07, 2009 at 9:39 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

Posted on the old blog from the blog that is linked where it says here up above this comment, but the lower here one:)

What a bunch  of crappy comments for a post about good and bad picks. Anyway, one person I have listened to about real trades is madcowmonkey, but I know him pretty well. I have seen some similar picks by other players on the same day that I went in on in RL, but that is about it. I wouldn't recommend using a caps player for real life, regardless of how high up they are. Any system that counts a negative return as a positive accuracy is flawed.

BTW- from the comment I made on the other blog from the link where it says here up above this comment, but the lower here one:

Where did you score points on SKX? I didn't see it on portefuille. Are you also PurdueBeau? I don't think you are, but he is the only one I see with 109 points.

Or is the 109 in RL not a caps player?

I will be interested in seeing if anybody posts a comment saying they followed another player on a bet. I think there was a blog of somebody following TMFSinch on SLW. I would go find it for you, but I am playing canasta with the in-laws and they are really slow.

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#2) On June 07, 2009 at 9:48 PM, abitare (99.31) wrote:

I look at other Top Players for ideas, but I trust my own ideas the most. 

I have stolen and looked at several Top Fools ideas. 

Floridabuilder had some good housing related data, I shadowed. dwot had good insight into Goldcorp and I sold my position. I have had players shadow me into postions and ask when they should get out, several players went long the gun/ammo makers with me. Most of those stocks went up 100% in 3 months. 

I have rode SKF up to near 100% twice, I found SKF and SRS from Demondoug. I got out of the ultras when some other Fool pointed out the flaw in the ultras.

I avoided MO, when some farmer out of no where explained to me the problems with high cost of feed.

There is plenty of wisdom mixed in the CAPS community. 

I have talked Fools out of plenty of stocks, including DRYS, LVS, CROX, Jones Soda etc.... Fools come back and thank me sometimes.

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#3) On June 07, 2009 at 9:55 PM, abitare (99.31) wrote:

FYI - I was a commodity bull and went bearish and wrote a post about it, Fool wrote me up, 35 Recs on the article:

Here

All-Star abitarecatania, the sixth most-recommended blogger at CAPS, sparked a lively debate this week with these comments:

Like Vader I sense danger in the commodity bubble. I have closed most of my commodity longs. So it will go for the First Commodity Bears, who attacks the Commodity Bull. The first ones in will be killed (ref my MOS, MON, POT calls). The guy, who times it right here in CAPS will be a hero and Top Fool, the way the previous Top Fool arrived by underperforming all the homebuilders and residential real estate.

The commodity bubble might have more up side, but long commodities and short the US dollar is one of the most crowded trade in the world today.

But eventually the commodity bubble will be popped. The commodity bubble is the last bubble left by the reckless Central Banks monetary inflation and government overspending. When the commodity bubble pops, like the DeathStar explosion, you had better be clear.

abitarecatania mentions three agricultural stocks that have harvested big gains of late: Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), Monsanto (NYSE: MON), and Potash (NYSE: POT). His Mosaic bear pitch drew some feedback, as well.

FYI - The commodity bubble popped a couple months later and I picked up a couple hundred groupies.

 

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#4) On June 07, 2009 at 9:56 PM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

BTW- from the comment I made on the other blog from the link where it says here up above this comment, but the lower here one:

Where did you score points on SKX? I didn't see it on portefuille. Are you also PurdueBeau? I don't think you are, but he is the only one I see with 109 points.

Or is the 109 in RL not a caps player?

I just commented on that, I guess, in comments #42,43 here. You are somewhat dissatisfied with my "caps" game comment I believe. Sorry to hear that. You are not alone.

I am not PurdueBeau.

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#5) On June 07, 2009 at 9:57 PM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

I will be interested in seeing if anybody posts a comment saying they followed another player on a bet. I think there was a blog of somebody following TMFSinch on SLW. I would go find it for you, but I am playing canasta with the in-laws and they are really slow.

always nice to hear from you!

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#6) On June 07, 2009 at 10:30 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

I just commented on that, I guess, in comments #42,43 here. You are somewhat dissatisfied with my "caps" game comment I believe. Sorry to hear that. You are not alone.

 Not sure where you get that from. I think we are on the same thought process. I don't put too much emphasis on the player rating in caps and I don't think top 10, top 100, or whatever players are gods, semi-gods, or idols. Everybody has there own "portfolio" and views of the game and I think that is a good thing. How boring would it be if everybody scored like you or bravo or gmx or everyday or anybody else. If everybody was going for number one on the site, every port would have 200 active picks at all times and over 2000 ended. I am not here for that and I don't have enough time to pull that off.

 

back to the original blog. I think there are some players that you can base some picks off of on the site, but I wouldn't recommend it. Camistocks would have been a player I would have considered if I went that route. Some of the TMF blogs give that idea to players I think. 

Last, what a way to end the comment on the other blog that you linked at in the top of your blog and copy/paisted. 

Please do not scew up, I base many trades on you. 

The player did ask nicely:)  

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#7) On June 07, 2009 at 10:33 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

posted on the other blog and highlighted the SKX with a link for you. canasta is over and I am on duty in the a.m. with the kids

Later, and it's always fun to drop in on your childish posts:)

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#8) On June 07, 2009 at 10:35 PM, Tastylunch (29.89) wrote:

madcowmonkey

You listen to madcowmonkey? I do too! what a coincidence!

Any system that counts a negative return as a positive accuracy is flawed.

I agree especially if one actually cares about making money in real life, but who cares about that?I mean you can pay taxes with CAPS points right? ;)

 

now onto portefeuille's question

 hrmmm dogpiling well I have done it I suppose but not in the strictest sense. I'll use a "trust but verify" approach if I think it's a great idea.But I'll never commit significant capital (>1%) to something I haven't  vetted on my own (that is not true of my CAPS account which I use as a watchlist)

Floridabuilder's calls on homebuilders made me some bucks in the real world.

Dwot convinced me to sell Goldcorp, preserved a nice gain there. She also got me thinking about Commercial real estate which was part of the process that lead me to short a bunch of REITS later on.

Binve & Goodvibe helped convince me into a FAZ position that I shoudn't have done,  I did have a nice gain but I held it too long. whoopsiedoodle.

but Binve also convinced me into some positions in Oil that easily cancelled that loss out. To be afir I think we mutually convicned each other of both calls.

I've straight up dogpiled citronresearch.com many many times, I suspect the site may actually be trying to attack certain companies but I can't be certain. Many of the stocks Andrew Left pans dive the day of the report...it's good for a day trade if you are fast enough.

I've mostly bought stocks suggested by other stinkyfeet players such as this madcowmonkey ;) I keep hearing about.

speaing of madcow, he brought up  good points about restaurants last year, I made some money shorting a few of those. I have to admit I'm amazed by how fast casual restaurants have snapped back this year.

I mistakenly bought some refiners too early last year partly inspired by CAPS. that was a really stupid one on my part.

I think I learned of the double ETFS from Abitare first.

And I've shorted a good deal of stocks based off everyday's methodology (but often not the same ones he mentions so we both don't get squeezed. Until I studied what he was doing I don't think I realized those stocks were shortable at my current broker.

kakoosek (sp?) got me to look at Zinc , that one has worked out very well.

I've also did the inverse of some players (who I won't name) reccomendations that I hold in low regard.

 

for the most part listening to select advice from CAPS players as complimentary information to my research has worked out. But I'm not sure how much credit/blame to give out here. Most of what I find I'm already looking for information on the subject and the decisions are my own I suppose...

 

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#9) On June 07, 2009 at 10:55 PM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

posted on the other blog and highlighted the SKX with a link for you.

I did screw up that list. SKX was not up 109% at the time I posted it and that is not the only error in that list. no idea what I did there. I guess I have to check those lists and make a new one. So please ignore all "performance lists" that I have posted (they are here: 1,2,3).

I guess I lost the rest of my "credibility" here (people just don't seem to enjoy headlines claiming that results will be restated. oh well, maybe the restated ones are better ...).

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#10) On June 07, 2009 at 11:45 PM, mustbepatient (30.29) wrote:

I have acted on exactly one trade primarily because of a CAPS post.  It was an MTG short based on BravoBevo and the chart.  It worked out well but I would probably not do it again.

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#11) On June 10, 2009 at 11:32 AM, miltargus (< 20) wrote:

I don't look to CAPs for ideas for picks, but rather run my own screens and do my own analysis, and then come to the community for further research when I identify companies I am interested in.  For this, the community has been invaluable to me - I learn things I have missed, find resources for information I couldn't find quickly, and importantly, learn from the opinions of those more expert in certain fields.

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#12) On July 18, 2009 at 10:57 AM, portefeuille (99.78) wrote:

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a guide to my blog posts can be found in the comment section to this post
(should be or should be close to the last comment)                                                               
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