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portefeuille (99.66)

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July 25, 2009 – Comments (19)

I just watched part of "Le fabuleux destin d'Amélie Poulain" on my television and noticed that she has that same television!

 

 

I will add some economics stuff later.

19 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 25, 2009 at 8:19 PM, rofgile (99.42) wrote:

I love Amelie.

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#2) On July 25, 2009 at 8:37 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I will have to watch it sometime. Did you remember that television? I like mine.

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#3) On July 25, 2009 at 9:04 PM, checklist34 (99.72) wrote:

i have a phillips plasma tv thats more or less burned itself out over 3 yeras of ownership, was thinking of trying one of those new LED TVs. 

here's what i've got for economics.  most self-declared pros or experts are still bearish, the blogosphere is still distinctly bearish.  The pros almost universally claim that "everybody else" is bullish in a way as to imply that those other people aren't very smart, but then declares that they are very bearish, because they are smart and insightful.  They then state that their view is variant.  But, and i guess this is the irony, the "variant" view appears to be the majority view and a semi-universal view.  

The blogosphere still waits for the end of days and a chance to shoot its newly hoarded ammunition stash and eat some canned meat.

 

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#4) On July 25, 2009 at 9:08 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

yes, really amusing those mainstream "contrarians"!

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#5) On July 25, 2009 at 9:15 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:


enlarge

 

(from here)

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#6) On July 26, 2009 at 12:53 AM, checklist34 (99.72) wrote:

hey porte.  my current portfolio yield is about 2%, my 2007 yield (based on todays prices and 2007 divi's) would be about 10%.  Thats not too bad.  Figure we get back to 1/2 on average... 

i thought of you this week as i spent a great deal of time talking shop (tech of a certain kind) with a very, very smart Belg.  I was struck by his tendency for formality and dilligence in recording data, and the contrast of that to my experiment rapidly and in great volume and take away only a conclusion, elaving the bulk of the failed tests to be forgotten.  He is of course half right or better, and I half right or less, but my 1/2 or less takes less time.

Mostly, this evening, I am absolutely struck by the hyper perma bears.  I am struck by their devotion to pessimism, their resistance to "flopping" to the bearish side even as the markets crumbled shockingly in february/early march.  I read a post by a guy at thestreet.com friday that likened todays stock market to the early 2000 Nasdaq bubble and said both were equally insane.  Which left me floored and unable to really think for at aleast an hour.  today we are still well under historical valuations (for the first time in 20 years), then we were at all time record valuations.  Today we are not up in 12 years, then we hadn't been down in 25.  Yet somehow the hyper perma bearish mind likens these two things.  

Its like being right gets people drunk in a way, and renders them unable to flop.  In 1999 a cousin and I had a heated long debate over stocks, he said the Nas would go to 4500, I said it would go to 1500.  He said he'd sell at 4500.  It hit 5000.  He then said it would go to 6000.

Comstock funds said stocks had to go to less than 800, they did.  They then said they had to go to less than 800 again 7 years later (first time was 2002 bear market, next was this one), they did.  So they upped the ante to <700, maybe even 650, we got there, they stayed bearish.

When the human animal is wrong it seems to get angry and stick to its position out of sheer want-to-be-right stubbornness.  When it is right, it seems to become intoxicated with its glory and simply up, evermore, the ante in the direction that it was right.  In bull markets bulls stay bullish forever, just raising their targets.  In bear markets, bears stay bearish forever, just lowering their targets.

Both wind up angry when the curtain finally closes on that act of the grand play that is the markets.  

Flopping is the key to successful investing.  And the key to knowing when to flop is understanding fair value.  But very, very rarely do the talking heads and experts on TV and the internet mention fair value.  Always, always, always they focus on macro trends.

Business is down in Las Vegas so they say sell casinos.  Never mind that LVS is $1.50 and MGM is $2 and WYNN is $18.  Never mind that in each case thats far below reasonably divined fair value.  sell sell sell, business is bad.

AMZN at a p/e of 80?  50?  3540?  buy buy buy, business is good. 

I'm almost sure that if one could go back through all of history you'd find that buying when business was bad (overall, or in particular sectors) has paid off huge.  

I bought my first shares of newspaper companies bout 2 weeks ago.  So far so good, business is definitely bad there...  I bet they make great, great investments 

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#7) On July 26, 2009 at 1:11 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I bought my first shares of newspaper companies bout 2 weeks ago.  So far so good, business is definitely bad there...  I bet they make great, great investments

see comment #5 here. I keep repeating that we are in year 10 of the current bear market and that U.S. equities are still down quite a bit and am equally amazed by this bubble talk.

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#8) On July 26, 2009 at 7:38 AM, kaskoosek (54.13) wrote:

Porte

 

Do you have distorted thoughts. It seems like everything offtopic you like to discuss.

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#9) On July 26, 2009 at 6:51 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Glaxo’s Relenza Sales Bolster Biota Royalty Receipts

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#10) On July 27, 2009 at 12:15 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:












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#11) On July 27, 2009 at 12:40 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

 

 

 

 

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#12) On July 27, 2009 at 1:38 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

 

 

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#13) On July 27, 2009 at 2:50 AM, checklist34 (99.72) wrote:

I am loving life tongiht porte.  I'm tired.  Not tired right now, I could stay up for hours tonight, but tired in general, in a broader sense.

The game draws near its end.   I won't lie and say I didn't go get a 1/2 pint of Jack Daniels earlier, but... we're just a few big up days from my exit point.  Or hedging point as it were. 

I can't even believe it.  Who knew?

Dime.

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#14) On July 27, 2009 at 10:52 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

When I read your comments #3,4 here I wanted to write "I think you are drunk." and then thought it would be nicer to post one of my favourite Hägar the Horrible quotes.

I could not find it so I have to tell it the way I remember it.

 

-------------------

First picture.

Hägar says: "i disagree with what you say but i will defend to the death your right to say it'".

Second picture.

You now see that Hägar is sitting inside of one of the famous XXX barrels and was talking to Helga. Helga says "Hägar, your drunk". 

------------------- 

 

 

 

 

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#15) On July 27, 2009 at 1:01 PM, BigFatBEAR (29.17) wrote:

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#16) On July 27, 2009 at 7:35 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

ARIAD Announces Preliminary Results from Ongoing Clinical Trial of Its Investigational, Bcr-Abl Inhibitor - AP24534 - in Drug-Resistant Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

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#17) On July 27, 2009 at 8:35 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Agilent to buy Varian for $1.5 billion

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#18) On July 27, 2009 at 8:53 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Some of the best calls from my list of calls.

I did end some of those calls already but let's just look at the performance between the date of the call and today.

ticker start now rel. change (%)

HGSI 0.50 14.00 2700.00
VVTV 0.27 2.98 1003.70
SEH 1.49 11.82 693.29
CENX 1.11 7.78 600.90
BGP 0.55 3.77 585.45
NVAX 0.65 4.23 550.62
DNDN 4.08 24.97 512.01
FITB 1.46 8.68 494.52
LVS 1.99 11.28 466.83
BLC 0.55 3.02 449.09
GMK 0.93 5.01 438.71
IFNNY.PK 0.79 3.87 389.87
BCS 4.13 20.06 385.71
STEC 7.60 33.74 343.95
ACAS 0.75 3.24 332.00
MIC 0.94 3.84 308.51
FEED 1.68 6.43 282.74
ING 3.42 12.44 263.74
CSE 1.25 4.49 259.20
CRAY 2.37 8.28 249.37
UIS 0.50 1.72 244.00
EXAS 0.86 2.93 240.70
BAC 4.02 13.09 225.62
PMI 0.66 1.99 201.52

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#19) On July 27, 2009 at 10:27 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

************************************************************************************

a guide to my blog posts can be found in the comment section to this post

(should be or should be close to the last comment)                                                                

************************************************************************************

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