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portefeuille (99.60)

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August 02, 2009 – Comments (20)

an innocent looking rule that may have produced a multi-million dollar damage (already and there is more to come)

(that was my attempt at producing a catchy headline, hehe)

 

the rule

 



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the damage

 

the 10 "all-time best picks" (out of more than 3000000)

 



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the 10 "best picks" from my list (out of less than 500)

 

HGSI Human Genome Sciences Inc. 2722.77
VVTV ValueVision Media Inc.  999.84
SEH Spartech Corp. 702.03
CENX Century Aluminum Co. 608.99
BGP Borders Group Inc. 607.82
NVAX Novavax Inc. 528.27
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp 513.79
GMK Gruma S.A.B. de CV ADS 465.70
DNDN Dendreon Corp. 463.25
BLC Belo Corp. 393.96

 

(since I don't have historical intra-day data for the benchmark (the S&P 500 index) and since some of the calls were made "outside of regular trading hours" I have taken the closest (in time) open or close quotes to calculate the "caps" game scoring system scores. I have not included any dividends that may have been paid so the "actual" performance maybe better.)

The sum of the scores of the 10 "all-time best picks" (again, out of more than 3000000) is 8388.09.

The sum of the scores of the 10 "best picks" from my list (again, out of less than 500 and dividends not included) is 8006.43.

(also have a look at comments 8-10 here.) 

I (again) rest my case, hehe ... 

 

 

 

 

 

20 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 02, 2009 at 12:09 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

So where does the damage come from? That rule can separate you from your money just like listening to gloom (boom) and doom reports (those by marc faber are at least somewhat entertaining and more constructive than some of what you can find in the "caps" game blog section ...).

Have a look at the faber show assembled by camistocks here.

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#2) On August 02, 2009 at 12:27 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

That rule can separate you from your money just like listening to gloom (boom) and doom reports (those by marc faber are at least somewhat entertaining and more constructive than some of what you can find in the "caps" game blog section ...).

That rule can separate you from your money just like listening to gloom (boom) and doom reports (those by marc faber are at least somewhat entertaining and more constructive than most of their "caps" game blog versions ...) can.

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#3) On August 02, 2009 at 12:43 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

************************************************************************************

a guide to my blog posts can be found in the comment section to this post

(should be or should be close to the last comment)                                                                

************************************************************************************

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#4) On August 02, 2009 at 12:51 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

And the $1.50 rule is of course not the only culprit. Others are the $100 million rule and the failure to include non U.S. stock exchanges. Just adding Frankfurt and Euronext will add just about every non-junk listed company in the world ...

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#5) On August 02, 2009 at 12:54 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

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And, yes, I think that we will move toward relaxing the $1.50/100M rule somewhat at some point based on a trading volume measurement....  You know, if you'd just send us pizza as you always threaten to do, we might get to some of this work more quickly.

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(from that abovementioned comment #10 by tmfjake (from this post))

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#6) On August 02, 2009 at 1:03 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

So just "broaden your minds" guys.

And listen to guys like Klarman. For a laid back introduction to "value investing" see this video. More on that can be found here. some have said they particularly like this paper mentioned in that video.

What Has Worked in Investing (pdf)

There is more here.

Tweedy, Browne research site.

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#7) On August 02, 2009 at 3:07 PM, JakilaTheHun (99.93) wrote:

I really wish they'd lower the market cap.  I don't see any legitimate reason for a $100 M cut off, especially when many Fool writers have repeatedly pointed out that the greatest returns over the past few decades have come from micro-cap companies, often with market caps in the $25 M - $60 M range. 

The rationale behind the $100 M cut off, I believe, is to prohibit rating pump-and-dump penny stocks, but as we've seen, the market cap rule doesn't prevent those sorts of scams from being ratable and low volume is the big ingredient that allows these scam stocks to gain momentum anyway.  TMF should institute volume limits rather than the $100 M market cap limit. 

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#8) On August 02, 2009 at 3:43 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

exactly.

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By the way none of these was at the time I made the respective call among those obscure stocks that quite a few "caps" game players like to focus on ...

They could replace this absurd rule by a volume criterion which at least would make some sense.

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(from comment #8 here)

 

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#9) On August 02, 2009 at 9:41 PM, TMFJake (51.76) wrote:

Whether or not you've presented an overwhelmingly convincing case, I'm agreeing with you that a volume threshold could be better--but not that the current rule is absurd...

How would you propose we implement the volume filter? Tastylunch has proposed we support any ticker that trades on the AMEX, Nasdaq, and NYSE, and require average daily volume (say X million) for OTC and PK stocks.  Is this the approach that you'd recommend as well?

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#10) On August 03, 2009 at 1:47 AM, checklist34 (99.72) wrote:

dude!  no question, the CAPs game is set up to favor bears.  The double-short, the wild focus on % of beating scores -vs- average beat per score, it all favors the bears.

My whole return in real life (not far from 3x the money) involves buying microcaps not rateable and penny stocks not rateable.  also i do a crappy job of rating stocks when they are finally rateable, but whatever.  

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#11) On August 03, 2009 at 1:51 AM, checklist34 (99.72) wrote:

porte, just focus on real life money and let the bears win the CAPs game, or at leats formerly win it.  its just a game, its a bleeding shame that they are advantaged here as, as you state, this has no doubt cost many passers by returns.

and that is why my ego sometimes growls here on CAPs, why I sometimes feel like boasting or argueing.  because whats happened has seemed so obvious and yet hereon CAPs ...  all possible effort has been put into having people NOT make money.  its a shame, you are right, I agree...

But i'm not sure what we can do about it.  I'm not remotely eloquent enough nor high scoring on the CAPs game enough, to counter the altries and GMXs and help passers by buy stocks at screaming bargains on those days when screaming bargains abound...

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#12) On August 03, 2009 at 5:59 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

How would you propose we implement the volume filter? Tastylunch has proposed we support any ticker that trades on the AMEX, Nasdaq, and NYSE, and require average daily volume (say X million) for OTC and PK stocks.  Is this the approach that you'd recommend as well?

Yes, that is what I have proposed as well the last time this discussion surfaced in the context of the allstarportfolio. A related post is here. And please at least include the Frankfurt Stock exchange. Or Stuttgart. They give you free real-time quotes and would be "thrilled" to provide them, maybe even pay you for this kind of promotion. I take 10%, hehe ... Both exchanges have thousands of stocks listed "from all over the world".

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#13) On August 03, 2009 at 6:35 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

DAX with 200 day SMA

 



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#14) On August 03, 2009 at 7:01 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

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Germany's Bosch buys Aleo to expand solar business

Mon Aug 3, 2009 3:26pm IST

FRANKFURT, Aug 3 (Reuters) - Germany's Robert Bosch [ROBG.UL], the world's largest supplier of automotive parts, said it agreed to buy Aleo Solar (AS1Gn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research), expanding further into the solar-energy industry. Bosch said on Monday it agreed to buy 39.43 percent of Aleo's shares for 46 million euros ($65.54 million) and aims to also purchase the remaining shares, in both cases for 9 euros apiece.

Based on outstanding shares the price would come to 117 million euros.

Shares in Aleo soared 32 percent to 8.95 euros at 0954 GMT.

Bosch, a privately held German engineering conglomerate with more then 45 billion euros in annual sales, last year diversified into the photovoltaics business by taking control of Ersol (ES6G.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) for more than 1 billion euros.

Earlier this year it said it would spend 530 million euros on a new crystalline solar cells and modules factory at Ersol.

Solar-energy peer Solon (SOOG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped 7.6 percent to 10.95 euros, after WestLB analysts wrote in a note that Solon represented another attractive target and as local traders said stock prices in the entire industry were due to benefit from takeover speculation.

"With the combination of Ersol and Aleo Solar, Bosch was able to control the total photovoltaics value chain," analysts at Steubing research said.

While Ersol offered access to silicon ingots -- used for computer chips -- wafers, solar cells and modules markets, Aleo adds modules, international distribution channels and access to installers, the analysts said.

Aleo generated sales of roughly 360 million euros last year, Bosch said.

In a separate statement, Bosch and Samsung SDI (006400.KS: Quote, Profile, Research) said they would supply lithium-ion battery cells for BMW's (BMWG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) electric vehicle project due in the first half of the next decade.[ID:nL3141522] ($1=.7019 Euro) (Reporting by Ludwig Burger; Editing by Hans Peters)

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#400) On March 28, 2009 at 9:15 PM, portefeuille (99.99) wrote: AS1.DE - 6.88 (5.18 EUR) - outperform

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(from here)

 

 

 

 

 

i told you so, hehe!

 

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#15) On August 03, 2009 at 7:21 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

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#16) On August 03, 2009 at 7:27 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Do what I want cause I can and if I don't
because I wanna be ignored by the stiff and the bored
because I'm gonna.
Spit and retrieve cause I give and receive
because I wanna gonna get through your head what the mystery man said
because I'm gonna.
Hate to say I told you so.
I do believe I told you so.
Now it's all out and you knew cause I wanted to.
Turn my back on the rot that's been planning the plot - because I'm gonna.
No need for me to wait - because I wanna.
No need two, three and too late - because I'm gonna.
Hate to say I told you so.
I do believe I told you so.
Do what I please gonna spread the disease
because I wanna gonna call all the shots for the "No"s and the "Not"s
because I wanna.
Ask me once I'll answer twice cause what I know I'll tell
because I wanna.
Sound device and lots of ice I'll spell my name out loud
because I wanna, oh yeah?

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#17) On August 03, 2009 at 7:36 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:



Dr. Matt Destruction

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#18) On August 03, 2009 at 7:38 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

*********************

He is regarded by many to be the weak link in the band, due to his simple playing, but live he sometimes switches out the rudimentary three-fret bass lines in favor of a more complex part. However, he is known to never miss a chord live, and the band even claimed that they usually didn't want a heavy bass line in their songs, due to the fact that it might change their original sound.

*********************

he is the best!

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#19) On August 03, 2009 at 8:13 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

 

(from here)

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#20) On August 04, 2009 at 1:58 AM, KingTag (< 20) wrote:

I'll have you know, in case you respond to my other Q, I'm going to go through this thread.

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