portefeuille (99.77)

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August 19, 2009 – Comments (13)

Update on the VW Porsche Saga

I have written quite a bit about the VW Porsche saga. Instead of linking to that stuff I just mention what my "ratings" have been for the stocks involved (I leave out Porsche common shares.). My first player portefeuille6 (formerly known as hansschmidt, no, not my real name, hehe ...) made an "underperform" call on VOW.DE when the ADRs (VLKAY.PK) where at $228.75, ended that call when they were at $68.10, restarted the call at $80.30. Today I ended that call at $41.45.

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Porsche preferred shares (PAH3.DE (DE for Xetra)) and VW preferred shares (VOW.DE) are "not currently ratable" in the "caps" game (grrrrrrrr ...). But hey, I have my list, so here are the corresponding calls.

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#18) On February 27, 2009 at 3:01 PM, portefeuille (99.99) wrote: PAH3.DE - 41.73 (32.87 EUR) - outperform

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#454) On April 23, 2009 at 12:00 AM, portefeuille (99.99) wrote: VOW3.DE - 70.70 (54.39) - outperform

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The point of this post is to brag (hehe ...) and more importantly to warn that the easy money may have already been made. By the way, a lot of "easy" money was lost in the VW short squeeze. Ask some hedge funds about it, hehe ...

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the current prices

VOW ca. 145.54 EUR,

-> VLKAY.PK (5 ADRs represent 1 common share) ca. $41.48,

VOW3 ca. 67.80 EUR,

-> VLKPY.PK (5 ADRs represent 1 common share) ca. $19.32,

PAH3 ca. 55.62 EUR.

13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 19, 2009 at 1:03 PM, portefeuille (99.77) wrote:

-> VLKPY.PK (5 ADRs represent 1 common share) ca. $19.32,

-> VLKPY.PK (5 ADRs represent 1 preferred share) ca. $19.32,

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#2) On August 19, 2009 at 1:16 PM, portefeuille (99.77) wrote:

By the way, a friend of mine did the trades for one fund that lost a little over EUR 100 million in the VW short squeeze. Well, he did not come up with that "great strategy", he just executed the trades, so not his fault ...

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#3) On August 19, 2009 at 3:11 PM, portefeuille (99.77) wrote:

what the analysts say ...

Porsche preferred (PAH3)

Michael Tyndall, Nomura Equity Research, 08/18/09, rating still "neutral", target raised from 54 EUR to 58 EUR.

Stefan Burgstaller, Goldman Sachs, 08/18/09, rating still "buy", target raised from 62 EUR to 94 EUR.

Georg Stürzer, UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking, 08/18/09, rating "buy" from "hold", target raised from 49 EUR to 61 EUR.

Volkswagen preferred (VOW3)

Michael Tyndall, Nomura Equity Research, 08/18/09, rating still "buy", target raised from 64 EUR to 69 EUR.

Stefan Burgstaller, Goldman Sachs, 08/18/09, rating still "buy", target raised from 69 EUR to 75 EUR.

Horst Schneider, HSBC, 08/17/09, rating "neutral" from "overweight", target lowered from 75 EUR to 63 EUR.

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#4) On August 19, 2009 at 6:18 PM, portefeuille (99.77) wrote:

Cerus' INTERCEPT Blood System for Platelets Receives Swiss Approval

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#304) On March 24, 2009 at 9:59 PM, portefeuille (99.98) wrote: CERS - 0.63 - outperform

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#602) On July 23, 2009 at 7:07 PM, portefeuille (99.98) wrote: CERS - end outperform - 1.80 - no new rating

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(from here)

currently at ca. $2.88.

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#5) On August 19, 2009 at 6:42 PM, portefeuille (99.77) wrote:

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#194) On March 13, 2009 at 5:10 PM, portefeuille (99.98) wrote: XOMA - 0.38 - outperform

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(from here)

currently at ca. $0.91.

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#6) On August 19, 2009 at 8:59 PM, portefeuille (99.77) wrote:

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#7) On August 19, 2009 at 11:18 PM, portefeuille (99.77) wrote:

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Australian Companies Raise Record $72 Billion in FY09

By Malcolm Scott

July 6 (Bloomberg) -- Australian-listed companies raised a record A$90 billion ($71.6 billion) in capital in the year to June 30 as firms from Macquarie Group Ltd. to Mirvac Group boosted balance sheets damaged by the global financial crisis.

Capital-raising in the 12-month period comprised initial raisings of A$1.9 billion, down 83 percent from the previous year, and secondary share sales of A$88.1 billion, up 74 percent, according to a statement from exchange operator ASX Ltd. today. The total eclipsed the previous record of A$77.9 billion raised in the year to June 30, 2007.

“Significant secondary capital raising activity continued to flow as companies took advantage of strong demand for stock and the underlying efficiency of the capital raising process in Australia,” the exchange operator said in the statement.

Financial firms including Macquarie, property companies such as Mirvac, and raw-material producers including Alumina Ltd. were been among companies that replenished balance sheets with share sales. The offerings were snapped up by pension funds that found themselves short on equities after the market’s slump.

Investors were sitting on about A$200 billion in cash at the end of May, about a fifth of the local stock market’s total value, according to estimates from AMP Ltd.

To contact the reporter on this story: Malcolm Scott in Sydney at Mscott23@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: July 5, 2009 21:25 EDT

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#8) On August 19, 2009 at 11:27 PM, portefeuille (99.77) wrote: