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portefeuille (98.76)




September 04, 2009 – Comments (49)

FACT update.

It has been a busy day as to FACT "news flow" and since I keep telling everyone to buy FACT shares it might me time to "reconsider".

I think I have to differentiate. 

If you have made a fortune, great, sell 50% of your FACT shares on Monday, put that money into EMC shares, sell those when I start my own hedge fund and send me the money, hehe.

If you have made slightly less than a fortune you might want to keep your FACT shares and "start selling them" if the stock price reaches $20 or so.

I will update this post, I guess.

49 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 04, 2009 at 9:55 PM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:


Facet Biotech Confirms Receipt of Biogen Idec Letter

    •    Press Release
    •    Source: Facet Biotech Corporation
    •    On Friday September 4, 2009, 2:47 pm EDT
    •    Companies:
    •    Biogen Idec Inc.
    •    Facet Biotech Corporation

REDWOOD CITY, CA--(Marketwire - 09/04/09) - Facet Biotech Corporation (NASDAQ:FACT - News) confirms that it is in receipt of Biogen Idec Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BIIB - News) letter dated September 4, 2009 offering $14.50 per share for all of the outstanding shares of Facet.

Facet's board of directors, in consultation with its financial and legal advisors, previously rejected Biogen Idec's all-cash offer of $15 per share as not in the best interests of stockholders. Facet's board of directors will respond promptly to Biogen Idec's more recent proposal of $14.50 per share and the company urges stockholders to await a further response from Facet before making any decisions.
The full text of Facet's August 25, 2009 response to Biogen Idec's prior proposal is set forth below.

August 25, 2009

Mr. James C. Mullen
Biogen Idec, Inc.
14 Cambridge Center
Cambridge, MA 02142

Dear Jim:

We are in receipt of your letter dated August 21, 2009.

The Facet Biotech board of directors, with the assistance of its financial
and legal advisors, has carefully considered your expression of interest to
acquire our Company and has determined that is not in our stockholders'
best interest to pursue such a transaction on the terms you have offered.

Our board and management remain firmly committed to increasing the value of
the Company to our stockholders.  We believe our development programs, our
collaborations and our technology capabilities continue to represent
substantial potential value for our stockholders.

As you well know, net of cash, your offer places negligible value on, among
other things: daclizumab, on which our companies have been partnered for
four years, and which we recently decided jointly with you to advance into
phase 3; our pipeline, which includes multiple products in clinical trials;
our protein engineering technologies; and our scientific capabilities.

Like any responsible board, we are receptive to opportunities to further
enhance stockholder value.


/s/ Faheem Hasnain

Teri Case
p.p.   Faheem Hasnain
       President and Chief Executive Officer

cc: Michael Lytton
cc: Richard Brudnick


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#2) On September 04, 2009 at 10:47 PM, RLAprof (< 20) wrote:

when I start my own hedge fund


Hey, port, i'm getting ready for another career change, so hit me up if you are serious. Just beginning to follow your lead... Interesting

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#3) On September 04, 2009 at 11:05 PM, Tastylunch (28.70) wrote:

That's a Fact Jack!


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#4) On September 04, 2009 at 11:42 PM, dragonLZ (86.34) wrote:

Porte, first thing I thought of (or told myself) when I saw FACT being up 74%  was: "And I didn't want to listen to porte..."

Congrats on a great call.

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#5) On September 05, 2009 at 12:05 AM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

you would put profits in EMC over any other stock right now Port?

not crme or any other bio stock?

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#6) On September 05, 2009 at 12:26 AM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:

The EMC comment was of course a "half joking" one. I also like CRME and also a lot of other biotech and non-biotech stocks. That is why I have such a "large" number of "outperform" calls, I guess. I still don't have a "top10" list.

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#7) On September 05, 2009 at 1:09 AM, throwerw (28.46) wrote:

unless you are actually Seth Klarman, I wouldn't take all the credit here...

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#8) On September 05, 2009 at 1:21 AM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:

have I?

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#9) On September 05, 2009 at 8:38 AM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:


Weighing Arena's Obesity Drug: Biotech Mailbag

Adam Feuerstein 09/04/09 - 07:00 AM EDT

The Biotech Stock Mailbag is back from its one-week beachside hiatus.

First up, an email from Jo S., who writes, "As a shareholder of Arena Pharmaceuticals(ARNA Quote) and Biovest International(BVTI.PK Quote), I am attempting to gather as much information from the best analytical minds. Hence, my humble request that you comment on these two stocks in the current market.

"Arena's Lorcaserin seems to be quite satisfactory in terms of safety as the side effects don't appear to be too burdensome or life threatening. Nevertheless, the issue of efficacy is not so readily apparent with the available data. It is likely that the results of Arena's Blossom study will prove to be similar to that of their prior studies, too close to call in advance. What is your take on the question of whether or not Lorcaserin has the efficacy necessary for it to be approved by the FDA?"

Jo went on to ask about BioVest, but I wrote about the stock here and don't have anything new to add.

Jo's question about Arena, however, is timely since I expect phase III data from Vivus'(VVUS Quote) obesity drug combination Qnexa to be released very soon. Since Vivus, Arena and Orexigen Therapeutics(OREX Quote) are all seeking to develop their own obesity drugs, Arena's prospects in the very near term might hinge more on the strengths and weaknesses of the Qnexa data.

Ballpark, Street expectations are for placebo-adjusted weight loss in the 6-7% range from Qnexa's two phase III studies. In terms of safety, watch for rates of depression, mood disorder, suicidal thoughts and cognitive declines in Qnexa patients that are significantly higher than that in the placebo patients. Tolerability is always important for obesity drugs, so look for Qnexa patient drop-out rates of less than 50%.

As for lorcaserin, Arena is going to release data from the second phase III study, dubbed Blossom, later this fall. Recall that the first study resulted in an underwhelming 3.6% weight loss, placebo adjusted, with a good safety profile.

My simplistic take on lorcaserin has been that it's safe but not very effective. Meantime, Orexigen's Contrave and Vivus' Qnexa are more effective but perhaps not as safe.

In other words, they all have issues. Trying to figure out which of these three weight-loss drugs, if any, will ultimately be THE ONE is a tough call.

Jason M. writes, "As a longtime biotech investor and follower of yours, can you give an update on what you've learned about biotech and give a refresher to the newbie biotech investors?

"There seems to be a lot of them out there... After Human Genome Sciences(HGSI Quote) and a couple of other super zoomers, it looks like everybody is buying biotech without common sense. Just look at Acadia Pharmaceuticals(ACAD Quote). All the usual warning signs were there -- insider selling, company offering stock and questionable management comments -- but still the stock went to the moon. And then when [negative] results came out the stock dropped into the garbage pail."

Everyone wants to believe that the $1 biotech stock they own today will be a $10 stock tomorrow. Human Genome is one of the great speculative success stories this year. So is Vanda Pharmaceuticals(VNDA Quote) and even, dare I say it, Cell Therapeutics(CTIC Quote).

So I understand the desire for investors to find that next high-flying stock. Unfortunately, the quest for high rewards comes with high risk. Acadia is a good example, as is Vion Pharmaceuticals(VION.OB Quote). The majority of penny stocks are penny stocks for a good reason.

Be careful out there. Skepticism is a good thing in my book. So is diversification. And don't be a pig.

Gregory M. ask, "What do you think of Affymax(AFFY Quote)?"

I like the stock, although I'm hoping for a pullback because I missed a good move. I wrote a bullish column about Affymax in my old newsletter last April. The stock was at $15, but I chose not to add it to the model portfolio at that time.

That was a bad choice, with the stock now at $22.

For those not familiar with the company, Affymax is developing a novel, long-acting anemia drug called Hematide intended for the chronic kidney disease treatment market. Four phase III studies are under way, with results expected in the first quarter of next year.

Hematide is a synthetic peptide, not a biologic protein, so it steers well clear of the patents that protect Amgen's(AMGN Quote) anemia drugs, Epogen and Aranesp, from competition. In 2007, Amgen sued successfully in the U.S. to bar Roche from launching Mircera, its own long-acting anemia drug, because Mircera violated Amgen's patents.

Affymax's Hematide is dosed monthly, making it more convenient than Amgen's twice-monthly Aranesp, which had sales of $3.1 billion last year, although not all in kidney disease.

A monthly-dosed anemia drug has significant advantages in the $1 billion pre-dialysis treatment setting. That dosing convenience is probably not as important in dialysis centers but still, Hematide could compete there on price and/or any benefits over Aranesp, depending on the outcomes of the phase III trials.

Affymax expects to receive U.S. approval for Hematide in 2011, the same time when dialysis centers start operating under new Medicare reimbursement rules. Japanese drugmaker Takeda is Affymax's global development partner for Hematide.

The next catalyst, however, is the results from the four phase III studies of Hematide, expected in the first quarter -- not too far away.

If I were an Amgen investor, I'd keep an eye on Hematide. If the data are positive (and I think they will be) Amgen's anemia franchise will face new domestic competition. And that could weigh on Amgen's stock price.

A gaggle of readers chimed in, angrily, about my Monday column discussing Cell Therapeutics and the uncertainty around the timing -- six months or 10 months -- of the FDA's review of its cancer drug pixantrone.

John M. accused me of waiting a week to write the article just to push the stock down when it was making some gains. That's nonsense. I waited a week to write about pixantrone because I was on vacation and didn't feel like wasting my beach time.

Ben S. wrote to say that I make "tall claims" about pixantrone and that I should "start reflecting on what kind of gratitude you should be showing for the drug companies that are taking risks and spending millions to safeguard our lives."

Um. Okay. I'll be sure to send Mr. Drug Company a thank-you note.

Mike also thinks I have no credibility on Cell Therapeutics, although he respects who I am and is sure that Jim Cramer is happy with my work. And what is my job, according to Mike? "Your job is to cause the public to lose money for the benefit of your employer at any expense," he says.

Steering back to reality, Rafael M. wants to know how I came up with my forecast for $50 million to $100 million in peak annual pixantrone sales, especially since Cell Therapeutics believes sales of the drug could top $600 million to $1 billion.

Clearly we've got a difference of opinion here. I wrote about my pixantrone forecast last May, so check it out.

And as I said in June, even with a generous forecast of $100 million in pixantrone sales, fair value for Cell Therapeutics is still only 20 cents to 30 cents a share.

Since I'm willing to assume $100 million in pixantrone sales, the question of the drug being granted priority or standard review doesn't make much of a difference to me.

Kevin writes, "Adam, great articles. I've learned a lot over the years from you. You've mentioned in the past the FDA's web site is a never-ending maze. Care to divulge how you found the briefing documents from Friday you mentioned in [your] Genzyme(GENZ Quote) article? I can't find it."

Thanks, Kevin. The FDA typically posts to its Web site the briefing materials for advisory committees one or two days prior to the start of the meetings. Investors race to download these briefing documents because they usually include the FDA's drug review.

The FDA's advisory committee Web page can be found here.

The FDA's Committee's and Materials page can be found here.

For materials from the advisory committees that review drugs, click here.

Happy Labor Day.

-- Reported by Adam Feuerstein in Boston


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#10) On September 05, 2009 at 9:04 AM, TigerPack1 (33.60) wrote:

I sold half of my FACT yesterday, and shorted more gold and silver.

I plan on selling the other half next week, to buy some consumer staples like KO and PEP.


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#11) On September 05, 2009 at 11:57 AM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:

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#12) On September 06, 2009 at 12:06 AM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:


#773) On September 06, 2009 at 12:03 AM, portefeuille (99.99) wrote: YAR.OL - 29.88 (179.30 NOK) - outperform



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#13) On September 06, 2009 at 12:43 AM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:

Porsche preferred still rated "outperform" by Credit Suisse. Target raised from 60 EUR to 64 EUR.


Analysten-Bewertung - 04.09.09

Porsche VZ "outperform"  

Zürich ( AG) - Arndt Ellinghorst, Analyst der Credit Suisse, stuft die Vorzugsaktie von Porsche (/ WKN PAH003) unverändert mit "outperform" ein. Die positiven Effekte eines Zusammenschlusses zwischen Porsche und Volkswagen auf Porsche würden vom Markt zum großen Teil übersehen. Porsche dürfte am Ende 44% des Kapitals an dem neuen Unternehmen mit einem Wert von 44 Mrd. EUR besitzen. Der Porsche-Clan habe mit der Umwandlung von 100% der stimmberechtigten Stammaktien in eine Beteiligung am fusionierten Unternehmen einen außerordentlichen Deal vollbracht. Mitte 2005 habe der Wert der Beteiligung in der Spitze bei 5,7 Mrd. EUR gelegen, nun dürften es rund 9,5 Mrd. EUR sein. Die Eigner der Vorzugsaktien dürften von einem ebenfalls steigenden Wert ihrer Anteile profitieren. Das Kursziel werde von 60 auf 64 EUR heraufgesetzt. Vor diesem Hintergrund bewerten die Analysten der Credit Suisse die Vorzugsaktie von Porsche weiterhin mit dem Votum "outperform". (Analyse vom 04.09.09)

Ersteller der Finanzanalyse: Credit Suisse




#18) On February 27, 2009 at 3:01 PM, portefeuille (99.99) wrote: PAH3.DE - 41.73 (32.87 EUR) - outperform


currently at ca. 51.22 EUR.


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#14) On September 06, 2009 at 11:24 AM, DEALWITHTHEDAY (23.97) wrote:

Porte - I am making an assumption here up almost 30%. It appears that it will take a little time for this to play out. Market share increase but pricing power is still down. Should I compare this with the 2006, 2007 time frame.

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#15) On September 06, 2009 at 9:14 PM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:


Yara CEO:Co To Raise Global Market Share, Make Big Acquisitions

8-20-09 1:53 PM EDT

OSLO -(Dow Jones)- The chief executive of Yara ASA (YAR.OS), the world's biggest fertilizer company by sales volume, said the company plans to increase its global market share further, and will make large acquisitions to do that.

"We've signaled profitable growth, and plan to increase our market share on a worldwide basis," CEO Joergen Haslestad told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview Thursday.

"That will come through normal organic growth, through bolt-on acquisitions and larger acquisitions also need to be done," he added.

The company was hit harder than it expected by the global economic downturn, which eroded demand for fertilizer, leading to capacity curtailments in a bid to cut supply and support prices. But Yara has started to increase output again, and will produce nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium, or NPK fertilizers, at 70% of its capacity in the third quarter, up from 50% in the second quarter.

Haslestad said it's uncertain whether capacity cutbacks will continue into the fourth quarter because it depends on whether still sluggish NPK markets pick up. "We're working on this daily," he said. In contrast, nitrate demand has returned, and Yara has sold all of its capacity in the third quarter.

Haslestad said he's comfortable Yara hasn't lost any of its fertilizer market share during the current period of volume reductions. "We've still got 7% to 8% globally and around 30% of the European market share," he said.

Yara plans to increase its global market share and is looking to areas with cheap gas supplies - a key feedstock in the production of fertilizer - such as the Middle East and North Africa. "Iraq and Iran would be interesting countries to go into," Haslestad said, adding: "Something will [also] come up in the former Soviet Union, but there are challenges in those countries around political stability. We're reluctant to invest a lot of money there."

Although Yara isn't active in an ongoing three-way bidding war in the U.S., where CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF) is bidding for Terra Industries Inc. ( TRA) and Agrium Inc. (AGU) for CF, Haslestad suggested some assets may crop up there when the merger-and-acquisition activity settles down.

"Fertilizer is an industry that needs to be consolidated to get more stability. As the biggest company in terms of sold volumes, we will participate in that process," he said.


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#16) On September 06, 2009 at 9:17 PM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:

Should I compare this with the 2006, 2007 time frame.

I would not "compare this with the 2006, 2007 time frame".

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#17) On September 06, 2009 at 9:27 PM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:


#618) On July 29, 2009 at 7:52 PM, portefeuille (99.99) wrote: MOS - 49.55 - outperform

#619) On July 29, 2009 at 7:53 PM, portefeuille (99.99) wrote: AGU - 44.33 - outperform

#620) On July 29, 2009 at 7:55 PM, portefeuille (99.99) wrote: POT - 93.16 - outperform



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#18) On September 06, 2009 at 10:31 PM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:


a guide to my blog posts can be found in the comment section to this post

(should be or should be close to the last comment)                                                                


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#19) On September 07, 2009 at 1:39 AM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:

a list of my players.


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#20) On September 07, 2009 at 1:45 AM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:

If you use the "favourites" function to "follow my calls" then you should probably follow the "ensemble", not one particular player. My player portefeuille12 is not really that bad, he has just made less calls and started later than the others.

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#21) On September 07, 2009 at 9:05 PM, DEALWITHTHEDAY (23.97) wrote:

I went through your players list. I select 5 of them. As you stated your 12 is set up very well. It appears you have come up with a key. I see you on the top.

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#22) On September 07, 2009 at 9:06 PM, DEALWITHTHEDAY (23.97) wrote:

Oh forgot, it looks like TRBN has got some legs.

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#23) On September 08, 2009 at 1:25 AM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:

My list of calls has a "high risk/less research, don't want to ruin my track record" cousin list here.

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#24) On September 08, 2009 at 8:27 AM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

Port -  i see Port12 picked BRCD to you have any comments about this pick?...short term/long term prospects?


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#25) On September 08, 2009 at 1:54 PM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:


Facet Biotech Again Says No To Biogen Takeover Approach


Drug developer Facet Biotech Corp. (FACT) again shunned Biogen Idec Inc.'s ( BIIB) approaches, on Tuesday calling its $356 million takeover offer " inadequate" and "not in the best interest" of shareholders.
Biogen made its latest bid public on Friday after Facet rejected earlier takeover approches.
Facet President and Chief Executive Faheem Hasnain said "it does not appear to be a coincidence" that Biogen made its offer within weeks of the companies' decision to start a phase 3 trial for multiple sclerosis treatment daclizumab. Hasnain called that move a "positive development" which hasn't been reflected in its stock price.
Biogen's offer is $14.50 a share, and Facet's stock jumped above that price Friday as investors believe any deal would need to be cinched at a higher price. It closed at $15.38.
The companies have worked together since 2005 on treatments for multiple sclerosis and solid tumors. A deal would come as larger drug makers have been looking at smaller drug developers as ways to replenish their pipelines.


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#26) On September 08, 2009 at 1:57 PM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:


Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Facet Biotech (NASDAQ:FACT): Biogen May Have to Increase its Offer to ~$20 - BMO Capital

BMO Capital is discussing offer from Biogen Idec (NASDAQ:BIIB) to acquire Facet Biotech (NASDAQ:FACT) shares for $14.50 per share (~$385 MM) in cash:

We estimate Facet’s current (3Q09, post TRU-016 deal) net cash (cash on hand minus 1-3 year lease obligation) is ~$288 MM or ~$11 per share. Therefore, Biogen’s offer values Facet’s pipeline at roughly $3.50 per share or ~$95MM. Subtracting the $30MM daclizumab milestone payment Biogen would have to pay Facet for the initiation of a Phase III trial in multiple sclerosis (MS) in 1H10, Biogen is essentially offering ~$65MM. For $65MM, Biogen would own 100% of daclizumab and volociximab, ~40% of elotuzumab, 50% of TRU-016, save up to $630MM future milestone payments to FACT, be eligible for up to $680MMmilestone payments from BMS on elotuzumab and be liable for up to $177MM milestone payments to Trubion for TUR-016. We believe Biogen’s offer, inaddition to being opportunistic, is triggered by the futility analysis of daclizumab’s Phase IIb SELECT trail announced on August 3. We have learned that the futility analysis had shown that daclizumab exceeded an undisclosed efficacy threshold(most likely an efficacy that is superior to Avonex), which clearly increases thevalue of daclizumab significantly. We believe Biogen may have to increase its offer to ~$20 per share to better reflect Facet’s pipeline value.

Action: So basically Biogen Idec is trying to get FACT for pocket change.. Might have worked 6 months ago but not in this kind of market.

FACT issued PR this morning rejecting the bid as too low. I expect the shares to trade up over the next week in anticipation of higher offer. Anything below $16 should be considered as a buy.


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#27) On September 08, 2009 at 2:55 PM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:

I made an "outperform" call on BRCD partly because of the Cisico deal.

CORRECTING and REPLACING Dell and Brocade Partner to Deliver the Efficient Enterprise

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#28) On September 08, 2009 at 2:56 PM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:


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#29) On September 08, 2009 at 3:03 PM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:

Here are some of the stocks I currently "like best" (as long positions of course).


This is more or less the result of a "brain storm". The last time it apparently worked (see comments #8,59 here) ...

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#30) On September 08, 2009 at 6:14 PM, TigerPack1 (33.60) wrote:

It looks like we have some points of contention here.

SA, CDE and HL are some of my DISLIKES.  The fake-out breakout reminds me of a mid-1990s incident/pattern, I believe, where gold broke out of a triangle pattern (in U.S. Dollars only) to the upside then promptly reversed into a multi-year DECLINE in price. Priced in "foreign" currencies, gold and silver are nowhere near the highs of the last 12-18 months. Plus, triangle patterns are notorious for head fakes one direction before a reversal.  Given a rising U.S. Dollar value for 6-12 months (which I am expecting), as interest rates rise and questions about economic growth remain, U.S. Dollar prices for the metals should decline appreciably.  Falling metals pricing and rising interest rates are horrible news when combined for small miners like the above 3 ideas historically.

Over the past week without much fanfare, lease rates on gold and silver have declined quite dramatically on the 3-month to 1-year variety, as smart speculators, major banks, commercial hedgers and others dump ever greater volumes of the metals into this "upturn."  I personally liquidated the last "long" gold and silver exposure I retained as insurance this morning.  And, I will likely add to my small "short" exposure the rest of the week.  The once in a lifetime "negative" lease rates on gold and silver surely highlight a great opportunity to unload the metals or go short, if one has a long-term perspective.

Plus, FACT should be sold into any new buyout offer of $17 or $18 a share the next few weeks.  The odds of a second bidder remain, but I don't see an offer much above $20 per share, meaning our upside is very limited in percentage terms.  I am still holding FACT shares today but will be selling soon.  If no new bidders emerge, the "risk" is FACT falls back below $15 over the coming week or two.

-Tiger Out

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#31) On September 08, 2009 at 10:50 PM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:

FACT might have somewhat limited "short-term upside potential". I would still wait for $20 (maybe $19.90 ...) if you are still holding some shares. As SA still has the gold in the ground and is not spending a lot of money (to get it out for for example) it is a nice way to speculate on a rising gold price "over the next few years". CDE looks "cheap" relative to "reserves" so it is my "silver in the ground" play, just like ATPG is my natural gas in the ground play (forgot to mention that one, please add it to the list). Of those you mention HL is the one I am least "convinced" of.

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#32) On September 08, 2009 at 10:56 PM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:

for for


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#33) On September 08, 2009 at 10:58 PM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:


so the list now looks like this.



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#34) On September 09, 2009 at 4:18 AM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:

... and add REP.

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#35) On September 09, 2009 at 9:23 AM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:

VIVUS Announces Positive Results From Two Phase 3 Studies; Obese Patients on Qnexa Achieve Average Weight Loss up to 14.7% and Significant Improvements in Co-Morbidities


#278) On March 22, 2009 at 1:20 AM, portefeuille (99.98) wrote: VVUS - 4.36 - outperform


(from here)

currently at ca. $10.90.


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#36) On September 09, 2009 at 9:55 AM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:


Big Weight Loss for Vivus Drug: BioBuzz

Adam Feuerstein

09/09/09 - 07:28 AM EDT

Updated to add Vivus obesity drug results.

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. (TheStreet) -- Vivus(VVUS Quote) has announced results from two pivotal studies of its obesity drug Qnexa, and the weight loss is impressive.
In the "Equip" study of 1,267 morbidly obese patients, the full dose of Qnexa produced a placebo-adjusted weight loss of 9.4%.
Sixty-seven percent of patients on full-dose Qnexa lost at least 5% of their body weight, compared with 17% of placebo patients.
In the "conquer" study enrolling 2,487 patients (this group included patients who were less obese than those in the Equip study and also included patients with type 2 diabetes) the placebo-adjusted weight loss for Qnexa was 8.6%.
Seventy percent of full-dose Qnexa patients lost at least 5% of their body weight, compared with 21% of placebo patients.
Low- and mid-doses of Qnexa also were tested with good but less robust weight-loss results.
Tolerability was good, with 59% of Qnexa patients completing the 56 weeks of the study.
The drug's safety profile also looks clean, at least according to the press release. No suicide attempts, no suicidality risk or behavior detected in the study. Depression and depressive behavior were low at 2% across the study.
The company also ran a safety study that demonstrated no heart-rate abnormalities in patients treated with Qnexa.
Going by the data in the press release alone, Vivus' Qnexa data looks strong and tops the weight-loss results already seen by competitors Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA Quote) and Orexigen Therapeutics(OREX Quote).



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#37) On September 09, 2009 at 9:59 AM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:

currently at ca. $12.29.

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#38) On September 09, 2009 at 10:45 AM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:


UPDATE: EMC Financial Chief: Worst Of Recession Over For IT Cos

September 09, 2009: 06:30 AM ET
By Dhanya Thoppil

BANGALORE -(Dow Jones)- EMC Corp. (EMC) believes the worst of the global recession is over for information-technology companies as the pressure on clients' budgets is easing, the U.S.-based storage-equipment maker's chief financial officer said Wednesday.
But, "we are not predicting any rapid recovery," David Goulden told Dow Jones Newswires. "It'll be slow and steady, and the recovery will create some opportunities in 2010."
Goulden was in Bangalore for the inauguration of EMC's new facility and to announce its strategy in India.
Information-technology companies have been hurt by the global economic slowdown as their customers shelved projects and cut technology spending.
However, with recent economic data indicating the worst may be over, and some major global companies starting to give new orders, IT service providers are breathing easier.
"I am expecting stronger (IT) spending in the second half than in the first half" of 2009, Goulden said. "Corporate IT spending is on an upward path."
But, the U.S. economy isn't "yet out of the woods," he said. "What we have seen is stabilization. I don't think it is getting any worse."
In July, Hopkinton, Mass.-based EMC said it has "better visibility and more confidence in the second half of 2009."
At the time, the company forecast earnings of 82 cents a share on revenue of $ 13.8 billion in 2009 after considering its planned acquisition of Data Domain Inc. (DDUP). For the third quarter, it forecast revenue to rise 2%-3% from the second quarter's $3.26 billion.
The U.S. is recovering faster than Europe, Goulden said.
John Mollen, executive vice president of human resources at EMC, said he expects Europe to likely show signs of recovery in the middle of 2010.
Mollen said EMC isn't looking at further job cuts.
In January, the company had said it was cutting 2,400 jobs to save $350 million. Then in April, it offered a 5% pay cut to employees in return of five days of leave.
As much as 85% of its employees had opted for the pay cut. The pay cut will be rolled back Jan. 1, Mollen said.
Goulden described the Asia Pacific as the fastest-growing market for the company and India and China as "big growing markets." The Asia Pacific "is a market with lower share (for the company) than the U.S. and Europe, so we have potential to gain market share there."
He declined to comment on a Wall Street Journal report last week which cited people briefed on the plan as saying EMC and Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) are in talks to form a new joint venture to provide technology services.
EMC said in a statement it plans to invest $1.5 billion in its India operations from 2010 to 2014 - three times more than its investments in the past five years.

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#39) On September 09, 2009 at 11:49 AM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:

The Qnexa Question (VVUS CEO interview)

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#40) On September 09, 2009 at 8:19 PM, DEALWITHTHEDAY (23.97) wrote:

Portefeuille GVBP, thoughts.

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#41) On September 09, 2009 at 8:40 PM, DEALWITHTHEDAY (23.97) wrote:



Prochymal first line questionable. But the add for the liver issue, and as a secondary look good. The stock was taken down. Do you the the new liver add and the secondaries should be a positive.

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#42) On September 09, 2009 at 9:25 PM, TigerPack1 (33.60) wrote:


TBSI is up 14 of the last 16 trading days, about 50% in total on ever increasing buy volume.  Insiders bought like crazy a few weeks ago.

Now I have noticed "takeover" rumors being deleted on some of the message boards I follow tonight?!?!?!?

Most stock message boards have a takeover rumor or two every month, but I have never seen them deleted before TBSI.

Some sort of confidential 10-Q filing last week, I think having to do with shipping things clandestine-like for the government.

Money flow charts going through the roof for the stock trading.  Great breakout chart pattern, turning most every moving average higher the last week or two.

Net book value of the ships still around $20, with a sub-$10 share price today.

I am curious how this one will work itself out the next couple of weeks.


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#43) On September 09, 2009 at 9:26 PM, TigerPack1 (33.60) wrote:

Disclosure:  I own TBSI shares, and may buy more! 

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#44) On September 09, 2009 at 9:28 PM, TigerPack1 (33.60) wrote:

Sold the rest of my FACT shares above $16 this morning, shorted more silver, and purchased some consumer brand name staples with excellent balance sheets and 7%+ annual free cash flow yields vs. my 2010 projections.

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#45) On September 12, 2009 at 1:17 AM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:


Seth Klarman Sells Facet Biotech (FACT) Shares & His Entire Horizon Lines (HRZ) Position

Seth Klarman's hedge fund Baupost Group has sold shares of Facet Biotech (FACT) as detailed in recent SEC filings: a Form 4 and an amended 13D. On September 4th, 2009 Klarman sold 867,532 shares with the bulk of those orders going through at prices of $15.434 and $15.393. The amended 13D now shows Baupost Group (and related entities) owning a 14.2% stake in FACT with 3,506,875 shares remaining. FACT of course was recently subject to a buyout bid from Biogen Idec (BIIB) whereby they would acquire all FACT shares for $14.50 a share in cash. Shares of FACT were trading around $8.79 before the bid and they now trade at around $15.95, currently at a premium to BIIB's offer. On Tuesday, the Facet Biotech Board of Directors came out and deemed Biogen's offer "inadequate." Then on Wednesday, Biogen reiterated their proposal to acquire all the shares at $14.50. Shares of FACT are up 66% year to date. We'll continue to watch these developments with interest as this all comes long after we've covered all the movements relating to Baupost's stake in FACT.


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#46) On September 29, 2009 at 6:49 PM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:


Merriman Curhan Ford Initiates Coverage on Facet Biotech (FACT) with a Buy

September 28, 2009 7:26 AM EDT

Merriman Curhan Ford initiates coverage on Facet Biotech (Nasdaq: FACT) with a Buy rating.

Merriman analyst says, "Facet Biotech represents a unique investment opportunity in the biotech space, combining a modest enterprise value, a late-stage clinical asset with a high probability of success, a robust development-stage pipeline, and an experienced management and board team with a desire and ability to succeed. The combination of modest valuation juxtaposed against latestage development increases the odds of success for investors. Facet was off the Street’s radar screen until the recent unsolicited bid from Biogen, which puts a floor of valuation under the shares in the $14-15 range." 



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#47) On October 03, 2009 at 12:03 PM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:



Biogen Should Bid Near $25 Per Facet Share

Facet Biotech (FACT: Nasdaq) By Merriman Curhan Ford ($17.38, Oct. 1, 2009)
WE WHOLEHEARTEDLY agree with Facet Biotech (ticker: FACT) management that the offer from Biogen Idec (BIIB) is inadequate and not in the best interest of shareholders.
Thursday morning, Facet Biotech issued a Schedule 14D-9 in which it put forth its recommendation to shareholders not to tender their shares to Biogen, referring to the offer by Biogen as "opportunistic."
While the decision is a relatively easy one (given the fact that the offer was barely above the cash Facet holds on its balance sheet), and therefore not surprising, there



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#48) On October 03, 2009 at 12:20 PM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:


Merriman Curhan Pounds The Table On Facet Biotechnology (FACT) After Board Formally Rejects Biogen Offer

October 1, 2009 1:34 PM EDT
Analysts at Merriman Curhan Ford are making positive comments on Facet Biotechnology (Nasdaq: FACT) after the company filed its Schedule 14D-9, in which it put forth its recommendation to shareholders not to tender their shares to Biogen Idec (Nasdaq: BIIB). The firm said this is the right move and are sticking with their $25 sum-of-parts valuation on FACT, saying Biogen will have to pay an amount close to this value if it truly desires to win over FACT shareholders.

Analyst Michael G. King, Jr. said, "No matter how one slices it, FACT shares remain significantly undervalued despite their recent run-up, in our view."

The firm notes the company is in discussions with multiple parties for the licensing of its drug discovery platform. Other highlights the firm cited include:

Facet is in discussion with parties that may have an interest in subleasing some of the company’s excess real estate.

Biogen’s offer for Facet suggests there is a high likelihood of success for the use of daclizumab in the treatment of multiple sclerosis.

Pipeline has substantial value.

More convinced than ever that the shares of Facet Biotech are fundamentally undervalued, and would continue to be buyers of the stock.


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#49) On October 09, 2010 at 11:26 PM, portefeuille (98.76) wrote:

#29,33,34 continued here.

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