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portefeuille (98.91)




October 10, 2009 – Comments (23)


I don't like answering questions very much so I refrain from engaging in any kind of Q&A game that is similar to this one. I offer something different. I offer this.

Name a stock ticker or ISIN (if it is not entirely obvious please add a link to a quote of the stock price from its "home stock exchange" on something like Reuters, Bloomberg or Yahoo Finance). I am not sure what I will do then. Maybe I will group them by sector or country and then sort them by some kind of "risk/reward" measure. I might just provide some links and quote stuff I consider relevant, let's see. Naming the stock will do, please refrain from posing questions since, well, I don't like answering questions very much ... Feel free to name more than one stock.

23 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 10, 2009 at 7:25 AM, throwerw (28.43) wrote:

rhie, gsig, ors, rjet, psec, bbep, grt

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#2) On October 10, 2009 at 8:35 AM, Sozurmama (< 20) wrote:

7? That's cheating. CABL


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#3) On October 10, 2009 at 10:22 AM, rofgile (99.53) wrote:

vwdry, amat, fslr, ge, stp


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#4) On October 10, 2009 at 11:20 AM, rd80 (95.48) wrote:

nvs, ghm, wfc

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#5) On October 10, 2009 at 12:21 PM, alexpaz (28.38) wrote:



SPNGE.OB (hehe) 

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#6) On October 10, 2009 at 2:08 PM, ajm101 (< 20) wrote:


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#7) On October 10, 2009 at 3:45 PM, streetflame (29.26) wrote:

China Crescent CCTR.OB
China Organic Agriculture CNOA.OB
Hallwood Group HWG
WSP Holdings WH
Rowan Drilling RDC

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#8) On October 10, 2009 at 4:43 PM, streetflame (29.26) wrote:

In order to steal port's glory:

RHIE - Sucks, can't you find any entertainment companies with less bankruptcy risk?  For example SGA, XSEL, NOOF, ALOY, EMDH.OB

GSIG - Awesome, good find.  They were on my radar a year ago but I hadn't looked them up in a while.  Great price.

ORS - Very cheap.

RJET - Very cheap. Along with AIRT, SKYW and possibly some of the financing companies, the only 2 US airline companies worth investing in.

PSEC - Good but I don't expect too much more upside any time soon.

BBEP - OK, I think there are probably slightly better energy partnerships.

GRT - Hate it, have red thumbed in the past. There are lots better REITS out there.

CABL - I don't like it.  Debt is too high (particularly for a small Chinese company).  I guess it will rise when they book a quarterly profit (soon presumably) but still not worth it.

VWDRY - How do you look up the current financials?  A quick glance did not reveal.  Kneejerk reaction would be against Vestas.

AMAT - Don't like it.  Many other companies in this industry have not had revenues fall as much.

FSLR - High PEs are generally not my style but I have to give a thumbs up anywyas.  Growth is just too strong and as far as I know they still have pretty much the strongest technology.

GE - I don't see much upside, thumbs down.

STP - Used to like them, not after their last 3 quarters though.

NVS - OK, I guess I would take them over BMY and MRK since they are European (for slight currency and market diversification).

GHM - Good I guess. Doesn't excite me at all.  Free cash flow pretty much 0, in this sector (and this phase of the bull market) I prefer to see FCF.

WFC - Don't like, too many factors for me to understand the business.

ORNI - No opinion of their tech.  Finances not good though.

SPNGE - Looks pretty good to me (although I prefer microcaps trading closer to tangible book for a little more downside protection). What's so funny?

APC - Don't know very much but don't like.

APP - I like it long term.  Not a great value right now but they do have a good brand and a lot of room to expand nationwide.  Teen/young adult clothing brands get hot, get mature then get played out.  So they can move into the space left as Gap, A&F, etc. start to lose a bit of market share.

MXWL - Red thumb. Weak financials.  Tech is my number one sector that has flown too close to the sun, beating out real estate and financials.  Eventually their wings are going to melt.

PTRY - OK.  They should have participated more in this speculative rally - maybe it is coming.

VLO - Like them, also like FTO, TSO, WNR.  FTO is the safest.

VMW - Red thumb.  Too high valuation.

WAC - Too complicated for me.  Red thumb.

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#9) On October 10, 2009 at 9:16 PM, ChrisGraley (28.67) wrote:

For the obvious reasons SQNM and STEC and lastly you pick a favorite that someone else didn't pick.


BTW get to reccing people!

this will take a lot of work on his part, so give him some props!


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#10) On October 10, 2009 at 9:24 PM, Starfirenv (< 20) wrote:

rec #9 here.

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#11) On October 10, 2009 at 9:27 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

BTW get to reccing people!

if you want to recommend something please recommend my list of calls.

this will take a lot of work on his part

I am afraid it might indeed.

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#12) On October 10, 2009 at 10:48 PM, SockMarket (34.52) wrote:

oh boy here it goes:


all are green thumbs.


thanks for doing this. It will be interesting to see how it turns out. 



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#13) On October 10, 2009 at 11:01 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

Okay, I guess that should be enough stocks to look at.

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#14) On October 10, 2009 at 11:05 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

RHIE and VMW are on my list of current favourites.

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#15) On October 11, 2009 at 11:19 AM, bothisellhigher (29.16) wrote:


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#16) On October 11, 2009 at 5:11 PM, traderbach (< 20) wrote:

I would be very gratefule for whatever advice on these you can give :-


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#17) On October 11, 2009 at 7:32 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

RHIE and VMW are on my list of current favourites.

so is SQNM.

you can stop sending ticker symbols and giving recommendations for this post now. don't expect anything soon or anything great.

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#18) On October 12, 2009 at 9:04 PM, ChrisGraley (28.67) wrote:


Just for #15 and #16 so Porty doesn't have to work on this until his buddy Hugh Hendry is right about something...

VIP- A lot of good CAPS players are high on VIP, but I'm not buying. It has had a good run for about the last year and the telecommunications industry is wide open in Russia, but it has a lot of debt and I can't trust the Russian economy to make a quick turn-around. Also I think making a move into Southeast Asia is a mistake, given that they still need to raise more money for just domestic growth. China will join the competition with a better bankroll andeat VIP's lunch.

TXN- A company that has had a decent run since March, but I really don't see any catalyst to buy it. It's current product offerings are commoditized andI just don't see a growth opportunity. It's fairly priced and overall a stock I would probably hold if I had it. If you are looking for a short term trade, there seems to be some bullish movement in the options market right now and they report earnings next week. Buy on rumor, sell on news. As a long term investment however, I think that you are chasing the crowd.

TRN- I like this company, but I think that it will go lower before it goes higher. The traffic in raw materials will increase when employment increases. I haven't seen any announcement of infrastructure spending. (But I do expect one when then government puts forth stimulus #2) In the long term, wind turbines are a good play, but again I'd wait for a commitment from government.

OCNF- If you are willing to commit to this stock for 5 years, it's an OK investment, but the sector continues to implode and their management comes off as inexperienced.

DRYS-  The CEO is a crook plain and simple. If Bernie Madoff ran a dry shipping business it would be this one. When the sector turns around, this company may very well lead the pack for a while, but don't come crying to me about your lost investment when the CEO goes to prison.

TRMD- A much better investment than the other 2 dry shippers, but again, I hate the sector and there will be a better buy-in point.

GU- Now you're talking! China has made a commitment to bio-fuel, they have a nice dividend and this is a bargain price.

CPBY- This is a fantastic company! It was reccommended in the All-Star portfolio a little while back and while I was dragging my feet to buy it, it shot up a ton! I'm currently looking for a better buy-in, but it's still undervalued if you bought it at today's price.

HUN- If you believe that the recession is over, then buy it. I don't just yet.

PVX- Buy it! Your only worry is if they drop the dividend before you can collect one pay out. Even if that happens you are fine. I don't think it will happen though as they have a good dividend history. This is a good play for either inflation or recovery or stagflation. The only economy that it will hurt you in is a deflationary one.

ERF- I like this stock as a terriffic value play, and the fact that it's a CANROY makes it a good inflation hedge. If you are looking at this as an income stock however, keep in mind that Canadian tax law changes will reduce the dividends in a couple of years.

WNR-  I break my own rules alot, but I generally don't invest in American car companies, Airlines or oil refiners. Almost every time I've done so, I've lost money. (with the exception of Ford fairly recently and Southwest Airlines about 7 or so years ago.

APWR- Maybe not the same bargain as GU, but the same upside.

XTXI- Buy based strictly on valuation. You may need to hold it for a while until the market to come to it's senses, but a good buy.

GGWPQ.PK- I'm not big on investing in REITs at the moment, but I checked it out after Bravo Bevo's pitch and this one is a keeper.

OPCDF.PK- I think it will be a while before the oil sands stocks perform again, but if you are a long term investor, you can't beat this stock at the price that it's at. EV38 has put up a great pitch for this and his is a really good investor overall.This is another stock where I'm dragging my feet, but I am buying this one.

LYG- I have to pass on rating this one. I lost some money on this stock when the crash happened last year. While I was right in thinking that the European banking industry was in as much trouble as the US industry was, I had thought incorrectly that Lloyd's was above investing in the same foolishness. I still think that they have good management when it comes to analyzing risk, but unfortunately I didn't realize that they would succomb to greed anyway. To come to a conclusion on their investment status, would mean that I would have to pretend that I have a total understanding of the UK's commitment to the banking industry, which I do not. My initial hunch is that in a country that admires social status and appearences above fundamentals, that they would never fail, but I think that the UK is realizing that may be the reason that Lloyds invested in the foolishness to begin with, especially when they see the "too big to fail" comparison to AIG.

As always, I hope this helps.



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#19) On October 13, 2009 at 5:46 PM, Bays (29.15) wrote:


I just wrote a blog about it and would be interested in your input.  

Yours too, Chris.

"Better Know a Stock" - Shout out to UltraLong


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#20) On October 13, 2009 at 8:48 PM, traderbach (< 20) wrote:

Hey Chris,

Great of you to put so much time into my list!  Never really expected to get such specifics or perhaps any reply at all.  Really appreciate it!!  I'm a neophyte compared w/ most of you guys & already have bought into all those stocks.  It was good to hear that you mostly agreed w/ my picks.  Have liked your comments on other subjects too, they seem well balanced & candid.  All power to you. 

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#21) On October 13, 2009 at 11:04 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

I think writing a detailed analysis on all those stocks would take me very long. I will probably not write anything about them. I have written something on AIXTRON (AIXG) and other "LED stocks" here. If I do write something about the stocks "delivered" here it will be in that "style".

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#22) On October 31, 2009 at 8:21 PM, portefeuille (98.91) wrote:

I have to do something with this post now that it has been recommended so many times. I will try to find some info on some of the stocks posted above.  And I reopen the "thread" for new stocks, but only stocks of German companies. I think I can make some useful comments on quite a few German stocks without doing too much research.

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#23) On October 31, 2009 at 8:35 PM, topsecret10 (< 20) wrote:

   BMRN,  RIGL........    

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