October 29, 2009
– Comments (14)
some hedge fund news.
Citadel Opens Its 'Gates' on Better Results
Citadel banking head D'Souza abruptly leaves
Paul Tudor Jones Favors Gold & Curve Flatteners (Investor Letter)
Study: Endowments Cutting Back on Private Equity
Crisis to have 'serious and lasting' impact-Soros
View from the Top with Julian Robertson of Tiger Management
David Einhorn & Greenlight Capital's Investor Letter Q3 2009
Value Investing Congress: Notes From Day 1 (Einhorn, Robertson, Greenblatt)
Ackman's Corrections Corp of America (CXW) Presentation From The Value Investing Congress
How is a reader to use this? Is there a cogent point? If so, state it. Why should a reader have to chase around reading whatever you find interesting?
Frankly, it's a pain in the ass. If you have something to say. say it. You're a very smart guy. You should be able to understand the critique.
I am afraid this post does not really have a point.
okay, to give this post a point I recommend buying shares of AIXG.
10/30/09 Exane BNP Paribas, "neutral" -> "outperform", 12.30 EUR -> 27.00.10/30/09 Independent Research, still "buy", eps09e 0.24 EUR -> 0.36 EUR, eps10e 0.30 EUR -> 0.48 EUR, 24.00 EUR.10/30/09 equinet, "accumulate" -> "buy", 25.00 EUR -> 24.00 EUR.10/30/09 JPMorgan, still "overweight", 25.00 EUR.10/29/09 Close Brothers Seydler, "sell" -> "hold", eps09e 0.22 EUR -> 0.38 EUR, eps10e 0.30 EUR -> 0.40 EUR, 9.90 EUR -> 20.00 EUR.10/29/09 Hamburger Sparkasse, "hold" -> "buy".10/29/09 Commerzbank, still "reduce", 18.40 EUR.10/29/09 Unicredit, "hold" -> "buy", 16.00 EUR -> 23.00 EUR, eps10e 0.53 EUR -> 0.72 EUR, eps11e 0.70 EUR -> 0.90 EUR.10/29/09 SES Research, still "hold", 10.00 EUR -> 17.50 EUR.10/29/09 equinet AG, still "accumulate", 25.00 EUR.10/29/09 WestLB, still "buy", 24.30 EUR.10/13/09 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", 16.50 EUR -> 26.00 EUR. 10/12/09 WestLB, "add" -> "buy", 17.80 EUR -> 24.30 EUR.10/09/09 Merriman Curhan Ford, still "buy", rev10e 355 MEUR -> 420 MEUR, eps10e 0.48 EUR -> 0.60 EUR, rev11e 450 MEUR, eps11e 0.65 EUR.09/30/09 Close Brothers Seydler, "hold" -> "sell", eps09e 0.22 EUR, still 11.00 EUR. 09/29/09 JPMorgan, still "overweight", 20.00 EUR -> 25.00 EUR.09/29/09 Hamburger Sparkasse, "hold" -> "sell".05/07/09 Unicredit, "hold" -> "buy", 4.00 EUR -> 8.00 EUR.
Also see this post on AIXG and other "LED stocks". They have raised some money and sound pretty optimistic in their 9-months report 2009 (pdf).
from the Leuthold Core Investment Fund Q3 Report (pdf).
MAINTAINING BULLISH STOCKMARKET OUTLOOK
At present, the Leuthold Core Investment Fund has 70% net equity exposure, its normal guideline maximum level. Based onThe Leuthold Group’s market analysis, stocks are expected to continue to move higher during the fourth quarter, but the majormarket indices are not expected to break out to new all-time highs any time soon. The market has moved off relatively cheapvaluation levels, and generated very impressive returns since March of 2009.While stocks are no longer cheap, they are nowhere near the overvalued levels that typically occur near market tops.Yet, thereare still hurdles to be faced by the stock market in comingmonths: a possibly weak economic recovery, higher inflation pressures,the challenge of mopping up the excess liquidity injected via government stimulus spending, and stabilization of the dollar.Weexpect to see the stock market work through a series of cyclical bull and bear movements over the next few years. But it is inthese types of markets that the flexibility of our asset allocation can really shine.• During the third quarter ended 9/30/09, the Core Fund’s +16.10% total return gain once again beat the S&P 500’s +15.60% total return gain. And on a year to date basis through 9/30/09, the Core Fundis now up +23.05% total return, notably better than the +19.25% total return gain of the S&P 500.While we are bullish on the U.S. stock market, we continue to view the best opportunities as coming from global emergingmarket economies. Of the Fund’s 70% equity holding, one-half is now invested in foreign-based companies. While the U.S.economy could firm to 3%-4% GDP growth, foreign economies (especially from emerging countries) can be expected to growat twice that GDP pace (6%-8%). Also, by investing abroad, the Core Fund has some defense against the declining dollar.The Core Fund’s long term performance record demonstrates how investors have benefited from our disciplinedinvestment methodology. For the ten year period ended 9/30/09, a terrible period for many stock market investors, theCore Fund has a cumulative total return gain of +141.41% compared to the S&P 500 cumulative total return loss of-1.51%over the same period.Since the Fund’s inception date of 11/20/95 through 9/30/09, the Core Fund has a cumulative total return gain of +266.27%,versus the S&P 500’s cumulative total return gain of +126.42%.
Reducing Fixed Income Exposure
During the third quarter, the fixed income component of the Core Fund was reduced from 26% to just 13%. This is well belowthe normal guideline minimum of 30%, but there is just not much that looks attractive to us with most yields unattractively low.The High Yield Bond positions, initially established in September 2008, have performed very well but we began realizingprofits last month, reducing the holding from 12%of total assets to 8%currently.This holding will likely continue to be reducedduring the fourth quarter. The 3% holding in the Financial Sector Bonds was closed out, as the prevailing yields movedconsiderably lower in Q3 (with prices moving higher).Money has been flowing into bond funds in recent months, as investors are fleeing the minimal yield money market funds andmoving into bonds – typically short-term bonds where yields are in the 2%-4% zone (still very low).We believe that interestrates will be moving higher over the next 12 months, and investors (even in these “safe haven” bonds) can lose money. In fact,given our negative outlook for bonds, the Core Fund initiated a small 1% fixed income hedge (short), essentially betting thatrates will move up and T-bond prices will fall over the next 12-months.In addition to the 8% in High Yield Bonds, the Core Fund has a 6% holding in Brazilian Bonds, which gives us additionaldefense against a declining U.S. dollar.There is also a 4%holding in Real Estate InvestmentTrusts, which is focused exclusivelyon health care properties. (While REITs are not a true fixed income vehicle, our package offers an average yield of over 6%.)As mentioned in our last quarterly letter, the Core Fund established a small position in PhysicalMetals (now about 2% in Goldand a little less than 1% in Silver).We plan to add more when (if) prices come down from current lofty levels.We continue tobe concerned about the long term prospects of currency debasement inflation (a run on the dollar). Essentially, this holding isviewed as an insurance policy, and will likely be increased in coming months.
Based on our quantitative market analysis, we expect the stock market to move higher at least over the next six months. However,flexibility continues to be the key to the Leuthold Core Investment Fund and if our analysis changes in coming months, the equityportion of the asset mix will be adjusted down as necessary. By using the disciplines driving the Core Fund, we believe we havethe opportunity to make money in up markets and the tools to attempt to minimize losses in down markets.
also see this post.
(from here (pdf))
notice the "industry group weights" on page 2 of that quarterly report.
"small & micro cap biotech" stocks have the highest weight.
as I have said before, Leuthold is a good man ...
The "average" U.S. stock by my calculations is down close to 10% from the highs of October!
The Dow Industrials however have fought the downtrend tooth and nail, and are down only 3% or so.
I am looking for a whopper down day of 400 or 500 Dow points to clean out some of the weak hand, late to the party types in the next week or two.
At that juncture it should be much safer to get back into the water.
Hopefully you will have your 5 best long ideas ready when that day comes and we will add them to TigerPackFund.
Are we at the bottom of the channel for the 2009 green arch yet?
That depends on the channel of course. The lower grey line may not be all that useful.