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portefeuille (99.60)

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December 12, 2009 – Comments (31)

this will be my brainstorm area. feel free to comment.

some of my favourite "German" stocks.

ad pepper (APM.DE)
ADVA (ADV.DE)
Agennix (AGX.DE)
Allianz (ALV.DE)
Allgeier (AEI.DE)
artnet (AYD.DE)
Bayer (BAYN.DE, BAYRY.PK)
BASF (BAS.DE, BASFY.PK)
Borussia Dortmund (BVB.DE)
Daimler (DAI.DE, DAI),
Deutsche Börse (DB1.DE, DBOEF.PK)
HeidelbergCement (HEI.DE)
KSB preferred (KSB3.DE)
Lanxess (LXS.DE, LNXSF.PK)
MeVis Medical Solutions (M3V.DE)
MorphoSys (MOR.DE)
Münchener Rück (MUV2.DE)
Porsche preferred (PAH3.DE)
Q-Cells (QCE.DE)
SGL Carbon (SGL.DE, SGLFF.PK)
Software AG (SOW.DE)
Solarworld (SWV.DE)
TUI (TUI1.DE)
Volkswagen preferred (VOW3.DE, VLKPY.PK).

some of my favourite "light" stocks.

Aixtron (AIXA.DE, AIXG)
Cree (CREE)
Epistar (2448.TW)
Everlight Electronics (2393.TW)
LG Innotek (011070.KS)
Philips Electronics (PHIA.AS, PHG)
Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150.KS)
Seoul Semiconductor (046890.KQ)
Veeco Instruments (VECO)

more "light" stocks.

Huga Optotech (8199.TWO)
Kumho Electric (001210.KS)
LG Display (034220.KS, LPL)
Rubicon Technology (RBCN)
Samsung Electronics (005930.KS)
Universal Display (PANL)

31 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 12, 2009 at 1:26 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

some charts are here.

a post on Aixtron and other "LED stocks" is here.

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#2) On December 12, 2009 at 1:32 PM, dragonLZ (99.46) wrote:

Why do you like Borussia Dortmund right now?

#7 as of today; playing Wolfsburg tomorrow, which is #8 with just a point less. I think they will lose tomorrow, and will fall further behind.

IMO, there is no way they can make Champions League this year, and that's where the big money is. Also, no huge stars (that I know of) on their team, which means no big bucks from player (and related merchandise) sales. 

Disclaimer: I'm a Wolfsburg fan.I also lie Hoffenheim... 

 

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#3) On December 12, 2009 at 1:34 PM, dragonLZ (99.46) wrote:

correction: I also like (not lie) Hoffenheim...

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#4) On December 12, 2009 at 1:49 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I really don't like the football club itself. It is just the stock.

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#5) On December 12, 2009 at 3:15 PM, fmahnke (91.12) wrote:

Port,

How bout ING,  This looks like a poential steal to me but its a hard analysis.  I thought I saw you recommend it on CAPS this week and I am thinking about diving in to the work.

Do you own it ? What do thinks its worth,  Thanks

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#6) On December 12, 2009 at 3:55 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I think I will safe "finance" stocks for last. I really feel even more incompetent than usual in that sector. I think that stocks in the financial sector will "outperform" in the next year or so, but I only have are few shares of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank. My "outperform" calls on ING, Santander, Erste Group, Swedbank, Royal Bank of Scotland, Bank of Ireland and quite a few other European banking stocks should to a certain extent simply be seen as a sector call.

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#7) On December 12, 2009 at 4:05 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

some "telecom" stocks I like.

Orascom Telecom (ORTE.CA),
Telekom Austria (TKA.VI, TKAGY.PK)
Telefónica (TEF),
Vivendi (VIV.PA, VIVDY.PK).

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#8) On December 12, 2009 at 4:56 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

"biotech/pharma".

AGX.DE, ALKS, AMGN, AMLN, ARIA, ARRY, BAYN.DE, BIIB, BMRN, CEPH, CRME, FACT, GENZ, GILD, GSK, HALO, IMGN, INCY, ISIS, ITMN, JAV, LXRX, MYGN, MYRX, NVS, ONXX, OREX, OSIP, PARD, PDLI, RIGL, ROG.VX, SNY, SPPI, TRBN, TRGT, VICL, VRTX, XOMA.

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#9) On December 12, 2009 at 6:01 PM, rancidx3 (39.83) wrote:

Port,

 

Why did you end your outperform on ggwpq.pk? Is it because it ran up too fast?

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#10) On December 12, 2009 at 6:35 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I wanted to add a comment on that. If the stocks I make "outperform" calls on di indeed "outperform" I tend to change the call to "market perform" when I think it would be time to "take some profit" and end that call when I think it is time to sell most of the shares. So I think GGPPQ is now in "phase 2", the easy money has been made. I would not be surprised if the share price would in a year be quite a bit higher than it is today though. 

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#11) On December 12, 2009 at 6:37 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

rancidx3 was talking about comment #906 (hehe ...) here.

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#12) On December 12, 2009 at 8:30 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

my "current favourites" (see this post).

ABBN.VX, AGX.DE, AIXG, ARRY, ATPG, BAS.DE, BAYN.DE, BION.SW, BPSG, CDE, CRME, DAI, EMC, FACT, GLW, ISIS, JAV, KSB3.DE, LNUX, LXRX, MAIL, OMEX, ORTE.CA, PAH3.DE, PARD, QGEN, REP, RHIE, SA, SGL.DE, SPPI, SQNM, STEC, UCG.MI, VMW, VOW3.DE, XOMA, YAR.OL.

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#13) On December 13, 2009 at 2:02 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

The stocks/funds currently having one of my 12 players as "caps" game "score leader".

ANFGY.PK,ARA,AWC,BLC,BNS,CEE,CIEN,ELOS,ESIO,FACT,
FCE-A,FIATY.PK,IHG,IIJI,JBL,MCO,MQBKY.PK,MXE,NYT,PDRDF.PK,
RDWR,RMBS,RSX,RY,SLM,SNO,STD,SWCEY.PK,SWDBY.PK,TMV,
TOSBF.PK,VIGN,VIP,VIVDY.PK.

 

 

      

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#14) On December 13, 2009 at 2:32 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

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#15) On December 13, 2009 at 5:31 AM, Tastylunch (29.27) wrote:

 I really feel even more incompetent than usual in that sector.

You feel incomptent? Wow. I admit I admire that humility Poret. you see like someone of above average intelligence, abilty and drive to me.

any new thoughts on Cardiome? Not much change since the smmer, save it's cheaper now.

RE: STEC the allegatuons of insider dumping doesn't concern you? I think they are too over reliant on one customer as well

CREE is interesting, I'm actually planning to buy some of their products. I'm not sure I can justify buying the stock at it's currnet price but I like the sector if you can find the right vehicle. I'm late on LED lights stocks though

I'll have to look at RHIE again, but last time I looked they looked like a pretty sure fire bankruptcy with messy assets. They are very very cheap though.

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#16) On December 13, 2009 at 11:01 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

well, you summed it up pretty well, not much change for DRME for a few months. no new thoughts from me.

The "outperform" calls on RHIE have certainly been some of my worst calls and the stock always seemed to drop fast enough to reflect those concerns about their business. I think I am pretty bad at ending calls, so just in case anyone "follows" some of my calls, it is probably a good thing to do the selling on your own ...

Someone should create a good LED ETF. My favourite stock among those "light" stocks mentioned above is Aixtron and I own zero AIXG shares (and no "derived instruments"), so I guess I am not all that convinced. Everyone appears to like CREE and it might be a much "safer" bet.

I still like STEC and usually don't pay too much attention to "insider transactions".

I really feel even more incompetent than usual in that sector.

and old and stupid.

Meet Jan Sramek, the 22-Year-Old Goldman Sachs Trader in Charge of Millions

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#17) On December 13, 2009 at 11:02 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

DRME

CRME

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#18) On December 13, 2009 at 11:56 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

some of the better "outperform" calls I have made.

relative change (in %) for some of the stocks that are the objects of "outperform" calls made here.

(dividends not included. this is the relative change (in %) for the period starting at the time the call was made and ending ca. 12/11/09 4 p.m. ET. so this is performance, not outperformance measured against the benchmark. there may be errors in the list)

average relative change: ca. 100.00%.

average "holding period": ca. 5 months.

I have a second list of calls here.

 

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#19) On December 13, 2009 at 11:59 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I currently have slightly over 600 "outperform" calls on that list.

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#20) On December 13, 2009 at 12:08 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

A little diversification is usually a good idea. ProSieben Sat1 is a German TV broadcasting company, Aixtron builds MOCVD machines for LED production pretty close to where I live, Erste Group is an Austrian Bank, Unicredit and Italian one, Swiss Reinsurance is, well, a Swiss reinsurance company, Gruma bakes tortillas in Mexico.

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#21) On December 13, 2009 at 1:04 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:



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#22) On December 13, 2009 at 1:49 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

update (see this post).



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#23) On December 15, 2009 at 10:10 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (31.67) wrote:

what a perfect inverse of Abitare you have!

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#24) On December 16, 2009 at 5:54 PM, TigerPack1 (97.88) wrote:

STEC looks great on the financial screens right now.

Will earnings hold up?  I don't know squat about this company?

-TigerPack

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#25) On December 18, 2009 at 12:31 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Will earnings hold up?

If they do, STEC is "very cheap".

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#26) On December 21, 2009 at 8:18 AM, expatriot08 (28.62) wrote:

Question: What is di in this statement. 

I wanted to add a comment on that. If the stocks I make "outperform" calls on di indeed "outperform" I tend to change the call to "market perform" when I think it would be time to "take some profit" and end that call when I think it is time to sell most of the shares.

 

Cheers! 

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#27) On December 21, 2009 at 9:18 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

di

do

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#28) On December 27, 2009 at 10:36 PM, bluebare (30.08) wrote:

portfeuille,

You're the first player on my CAPS favorites list because I'm very grateful for the outstanding analysis you share so freely here. You've earned my "thanks" for all you do to make CAPS an engaged and enlightened investment community and me a much better informed investor.

bluebare

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#29) On December 31, 2009 at 9:25 AM, TurboLuke (< 20) wrote:

Porte, alter Haudegen. Das hier dürfte dich interessieren

http://www.mastertraders.de/trading-depot/2009/10/30/die-hirnlose-herde/

 

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#30) On January 01, 2010 at 7:05 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

 

 

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#31) On March 16, 2013 at 5:26 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:



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