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portefeuille (99.56)

Ellipsis

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January 29, 2010 – Comments (30)

okay, time to revisit the calls I made here. This will take a few days I'm afraid, feel free to interrupt me, especially if it appears to be completely useless ...

30 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 29, 2010 at 8:40 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#3) On February 18, 2009 at 12:41 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: TSCM - 2.57 - outperform

TSCM closed today at $3.17 (+23.35%)

TheStreet.com (1,2).



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the timing was somewhat unfortunate. at least I didn't recommend it in 1999.

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The Street.com Soars; Cramer Makes Some Dough

...

Given an assist to JMP Securities analyst Sameet Sinha, who today moved to a Market Outperform rating on the stock from Market Perform, and setting a $5 price target. Sinha notes that in addition to $83 million in cash, or about $2.37 a share,  the company has net operating loss carryforwards of $128 million, with a value he calculates at about 73 cents a share. That brings you to $3.10 in assets; the stock closed yesterday at $2.52; as recently as last Thursday the stock closed at $2.22.

Sinha set a price target on the stock of $5 - in essence, he was calling the stock a potential double. “After two quarters of no visibility into their financials as the company was buried under an accounting investigation (now concluded), we believe that there is inherent value in the stock,” Sinha wrote in a note.

...

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The cash and the NOL carryforwards were the main reasons for my recommendation if I remember that right (if not, they should have been my reasons). So I guess nothing has changed.

still "outperform".

 

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#2) On January 29, 2010 at 8:42 PM, Tastylunch (29.54) wrote:

FWIW I like it a lot. You often dig up companies I've never even herad . case in point MIPI

seriously this 100 million 1.50 rule needs to go.

any thoughts on MYRX?

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#3) On January 29, 2010 at 8:42 PM, Tastylunch (29.54) wrote:

that was dumb on my part I now see you have three picks on MYRX

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#4) On January 29, 2010 at 8:54 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#4) On February 20, 2009 at 10:51 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: MSO - 2.33 - outperform

#722) On August 19, 2009 at 12:26 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: MSO - end outperform - 4.17 - new rating: market perform

#760) On August 28, 2009 at 8:02 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: MSO - end market perform - 6.99 - no new rating

MSO closed today at $4.43.



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I would say reasonably well done. The company itself always seemed to be rather ridiculous but really cheap on February 20, 2009. I missed the all-time low slightly ($1.60 on March 9 and 10).

$2.33 -> $4.17 (+78.97%), $2.33 -> $6.99 (+200%).

I really don't want to look at the company again. too boring, and don't want to spoil my MSO track record, hehe ...

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#5) On January 29, 2010 at 9:43 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#5) On February 23, 2009 at 7:15 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: NOVL - 3.27 - outperform

NOVL closed today at $4.47 (+36.70%).

I guess I am early adopter of linux and in 1997 I installed SUSE linux on my desktop.

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SUSE Linux (pronounced /ˈsuːsə/[2], German: [ˈzuːzə]) is a computer operating system. It is built on top of the Linux kernel and is distributed with system and application software from various projects. Suse Linux is of German origin and mainly developed in Europe. The first version of this distribution appeared in early 1994, making SUSE the oldest existing commercial distribution. It is known for its YaST configuration tool. The developer rights are owned by Novell, Inc. since 2003, when the company bought SUSE. Novell, one of the founding members of the Open Invention Network, opened widely the distribution development to outside contributors in 2005, creating the openSUSE Project.

Novell employed over 500 developers working on SUSE in 2004.[3]

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(from here)

At the time SUSE Linux was considered "the German competitor" of Red Hat Linux (RHT). RHT did much better in 2009 and is more interesting than NOVL but you will have to wait for that one, I recommended RHT on  03/07/09.



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(from here)

a rather strange company presentation is here.

Novell Aligns Organization and Executive Team to Focus on Growing Market for Intelligent Workload Management Solutions

a recent presentation (pdf).

Novell F4Q09 (Qtr End 10/31/09) Earnings Call Transcript

I should look a little deeper before commenting on the stock ... 

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#6) On January 29, 2010 at 9:57 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#6) On February 24, 2009 at 7:42 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: CDE - 0.81 - outperform

split adjusted that is $8.10. It closed today at $14.02 (+73.09%).



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just a "silver play", no fancy explanation. I get the feeling this project is not going anywhere, let's see what the next stock brings ...

still "outperform".

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#7) On January 29, 2010 at 10:04 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#7) On February 24, 2009 at 1:51 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: EMC - 10.78 - outperform

good old EMC. well, at least I have links to "pitches" for that one. here and here. EMC shares and long-term call options on EMC are my largest positions.

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#8) On January 29, 2010 at 10:08 PM, anchak (99.86) wrote:

Very very nice post!

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#9) On January 29, 2010 at 10:48 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#8) On February 24, 2009 at 2:44 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: FACT - 6.65 - outperform

FACT closed today at $15.75 (+136.84%)



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and another pitch.

FACT is a spin-off of PDLI which I recommended on 03/10/2009.

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What Does Seth Klarman See In Facet Biotech?

...

Mr. Klarman recently discussed his investment thesis for FACT in this presentation. If you have not seen the video, I highly encourage you to watch it--at least twice. To hear the thesis, fast-forward 26 minutes and 30 seconds into the presentation.

In the video, Klarman stated that FACT "has about $16-$17 per share in cash, so you could clearly liquidate that, stop all discovery activities and mail out $10-$14 per share back to the holders."

...

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I have a post on Klarman, that video and other stuff here.

Thursday, April 30, 2009 Seth Klarman's Baupost Group Starts Activism in Facet Biotech (FACT) Position - Amended 13D

May 13, 2009, Facet Biotech: What's with Chapman's Scripted Questions?

Thursday, September 10, 2009 Seth Klarman Sells Facet Biotech (FACT) Shares ...

Wednesday, December 16, 2009 Baupost Group To Buy More Facet Biotech, Reject Biogen Idec's Tender Offer

December 21, 2009, Facet Rebuffs Biogen: Will a White Knight Emerge?

...

I think I should write a new post on FACT sometime ...

still "outperform".

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#10) On January 29, 2010 at 11:07 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#9) On February 24, 2009 at 4:00 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: NG - 2.70 - outperform

#920) On December 23, 2009 at 5:56 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: NG - end outperform - 6.58 - new rating: market perform

NG closed today at $5.26.

$2.70 -> $6.58 (+143.70%).



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all-time low was at around $0.37 (11/24/08). the recent high was at around $6.98 (01/11/10) ($0.37 -> $6.98 (+1786.49%(!))).

NovaGold's Big Plans.

That was just a mining play, I no very little about it ...

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#11) On January 29, 2010 at 11:07 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

no

know

(sorry!)

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#12) On January 29, 2010 at 11:10 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#10) On February 27, 2009 at 8:50 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: C - 1.40 - outperform

C closed today at $3.32.

nothing to add to the Citigroup discussion. I still like it.   

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#13) On January 30, 2010 at 12:47 AM, fmahnke (95.32) wrote:

Some random thoughts and questions

I owned TSCM from 2.26 and am out, considering going short because, 1. They still can't seem to generate cash (the net working capital on the B/S is deceiving as I see the $55 million of the preferred stock as debt, 2, Cramer has and will continue to suck out all the money anyway as he is a rare irreplaceable CEO.  3 Although advertising revenue could grow, I think the subscription business is broken (especially since Jim is not that good a stock picker).

I sold my BSPG on the quarters revenue miss but am thinking about going back in.  Do you  own it ??

Strange to see EMC sell off after what seemed like a good  quarter,  Any insights

Curious what if anything you are buying now,  I picked up some TNDM today and am looking at NVTL.

Thanks and keep up the good work

 

 

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#14) On January 30, 2010 at 9:23 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

I see the $55 million of the preferred stock as debt

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TCV to Invest $55M in TheStreet.com to Accelerate Growth

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 15, 2007--TheStreet.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSCM), a leading financial media company, today announced that Technology Crossover Ventures (TCV), a leading provider of growth capital to late-stage private and public companies, has agreed to purchase a minority stake in TheStreet.com to support the Company's accelerated expansion strategy.

The investment of $55 million represents the purchase of preferred stock and warrants to purchase shares of common stock. The preferred stock converts into common stock at $14.26 per share. The five-year warrants permit TCV to purchase approximately 1.1 million shares of common stock at an exercise price of $15.686, or a premium of 10%. The preferred stock receives dividends at the same rate as the underlying company's common shares, and has a one-time liquidation preference.

TheStreet.com's growth strategy focuses on broadening its content and reach through both organic growth and strategic accretive acquisitions as it seeks to become the premier online destination for money. This investment will accelerate growth and provide TheStreet.com with additional Board expertise, as Jay Hoag, founding general partner of TCV, will join TheStreet.com board.

"TCV is one of the largest private equity and venture capital firms, with a strong reputation and history of success," said Tom Clarke, chairman and CEO of TheStreet.com. "The confidence TCV has shown in our current and future business models is a firm endorsement of TheStreet.com's strategy. Our alignment with TCV is a clear indicator of our intention to aggressively move forward with our expansion plans as a leading player in the online financial media sector, and I look forward to working with them on our future strategy."

The Company has aggressively redefined itself in the online media landscape with such acquisitions as Stockpickr.com - the fastest growing financial social networking Web site; BankingMyWay.com - providing consumers nationwide with the best rates on CDs, savings accounts, interest checking, money markets, mortgage/home equity and auto loans; and Rate-Watch.com - one of the nation's largest providers of pricing solutions for banks and credit unions. The Company also acquired Promotions.com - a premier one-stop shop for advertisers, advertising agencies and corporations in search of a broad spectrum of innovative, interactive advertising solutions. In the coming months, TheStreet.com will launch a new site, Mainstreet.com and will re-launch its free sites, TheStreet.com and Stockpickr.com, as it enhances its position as the premier destination for money.

"We at TCV view TheStreet.com as a premier financial media company and an industry pioneer," said Jay Hoag. "Our confidence in TheStreet.com's growth strategy is based on an appreciation of its strong historical execution and an ability to intuitively navigate marketplace trends. Our investment in the company should further that strategy, allowing TheStreet.com to achieve its full potential. I look forward to working with Tom and entire TheStreet.com Board."

About TCV
Technology Crossover Ventures (TCV), founded in 1995, is a leading growth equity investor focused on investing in premier later stage technology companies. With $7.7 billion in capital under management, TCV has made growth equity, PIPE and recapitalization investments in over 150 companies leading to 44 initial public offerings and more than 30 strategic sales. Representative investments include Alteon Websystems, Altiris, Automated Trading Desk, CNET, Capella Education Company, eHarmony, Expedia, Fandango, InPhonic, INFONXX, iVillage, Liquidnet, Netflix, RealNetworks, Redback Networks, RiskMetrics Group, Solect Technology, TradingScreen, Travelport, Webroot and Xylan. TCV has eight partners and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California. For more information about TCV, visit www.tcv.com.

...

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Industry Moves: TheStreet.com Investor Quietly Leaves The Board

Jay Hoag, the long-time general partner of PE/VC firm Technology Crossover Ventures, has quit the board of TheStreet.com (NSDQ: TSCM), according to an SEC filing from earlier this month, picked up this week by by PEHub. A year ago TCV invested $55 million in TSCM in exchange for a minority stake in the 10-year-old online financial media company. No replacement for Hoag have been named yet, and no specific reasons were given for his departure, though it is surprising considering TCV is still invested in the company.

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an old research report on TSCM is here (pp. 230&231/401).

You might be right about points 2 and 3 on TSCM. I will probably change my call to "market perform" if it reaches $4 or so ...

I don't have any BPSG shares but it is one of my favourite stocks currently (see here). I think the explanation for the revenue miss they gave on the earnings conference call was reasonable.

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While the fourth quarter reflected a slowdown in fixed income, we fared somewhat better than many of our competitors, ...

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(from here)

no, no insight on EMC. They appear to have some trouble getting past the May 2008 high.



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I have not bought or sold any stocks or options in quite a while.

 

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#15) On January 30, 2010 at 9:40 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#11) On February 27, 2009 at 9:23 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: RBS - 6.71 - outperform

RBS closed on 01/29/10 at $10.21 (+52.16%). also "widely followed" so I guess no need to add comments. some charts of RBS in London trading ...



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still "outperform".

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#16) On January 30, 2010 at 9:55 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#12) On February 27, 2009 at 9:56 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: IO - 0.94 - outperform

#500) On May 13, 2009 at 1:23 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: IO - end outperform - 2.59 - no new rating

IO closed on 01/29/10 at $4.75. The all-time high was at around $0.83 (03/03/09 and 03/04/09). The recent high was at $6.95 (01/11/10).

$0.94 -> $2.59 (+175.53%), $0.94 -> $4.75 (+405.32%), $0.94 -> $6.95 (+639.36%).



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It was incredibly cheap on 02/27/09 just like all those others ...

I don't have an opinion on IO currently.

 

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#17) On January 30, 2010 at 9:57 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

maybe you should just skip the text and look at the pretty charts, hehe!

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#18) On January 30, 2010 at 10:19 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#13) On February 27, 2009 at 9:59 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: MBI - 2.90 - outperform

#755) On August 27, 2009 at 1:19 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: MBI - end outperform - 6.01 - new rating: market perform

MBI closed on 01/29/10 at $4.93. The all-time low was at around $2.17 (03/05/09). So I got "in at out" pretty well (never had any shares, my 10 largest share/option positions usually make up more than 90% of my portfolio so you can fairly assume that I don't hold most of the stocks I recommend.

I think MBI will "make it" but apart from that I would rather not comment on the stock. 

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#19) On January 30, 2010 at 10:20 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

recommend.

recommend.).

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#20) On January 30, 2010 at 10:53 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#14) On February 27, 2009 at 10:01 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: CAPS - 0.50 - outperform

It closed on 01/29/10 at $0.88 (+76%).

I wish I could say that CAPS is widely followed and turn the attention to the next stock but it isn't so I won't.



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a recent presentation is here (pdf). I might have to deeper look at it. some day ...

 

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#21) On January 30, 2010 at 11:09 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#15) On February 27, 2009 at 10:08 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: AER - 3.30 - outperform

#585) On July 13, 2009 at 6:00 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: AER - end outperform - 6.42 - no new rating

It closed on 01/29/10 at $8.75.

$3.30 -> $6.42 (+94.55%), $3.30 -> $8.75 (+165.15%).



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Corporate Information

AerCap is an integrated global aviation company with a leading market position in aircraft and engine leasing, trading and parts sales. AerCap also provides aircraft management services and performs aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul services and aircraft disassemblies. Our portfolio consists of 291 aircraft and 92 engines that are either owned, on order, under contract or letter of intent, or managed. AerCap is headquartered in The Netherlands and has offices in Ireland, the United States, China, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

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a recent presentation (pdf).

I still like it. It's just not all that cheap anymore ...

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#22) On January 30, 2010 at 11:24 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#16) On February 27, 2009 at 10:20 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: S&P 500 double bottom: nov 21, today!

That was my try at "calling the bottom", hehe ...

That 11/21/09 low for the S&P 500 index was at around 741.02.

open/high/low/close on 02/27/09 were at around 729.57/729.57/699.70/700.82.

The 03/09/09 low was at around 666.79 so I guess I did fairly well ... 

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#23) On January 30, 2010 at 11:33 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#17) On February 27, 2009 at 10:51 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: HIG - 6.20 - outperform

#625) On July 30, 2009 at 2:34 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: HIG - end outperform - 16.95 - new rating: market perform

It closed on 01/29/10 at $23.99.

$6.20 -> $16.95 (+173.39%), $6.20 -> $23.99 (+286.94%).



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Like most other financials incredibly cheap on 02/27/09. And I was convinced that Allianz would not let them go down. Today HIG it is just another boring insurance company stock again. I still like it.

 

 

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#24) On January 30, 2010 at 11:56 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#18) On February 27, 2009 at 3:01 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: PAH3.DE - 41.73 (32.87 EUR) - outperform

PAH3 (Porsche preferred) closed Xetra trading on 01/29/10 at around 41.11 EUR (around $56.98).

$41.73 -> $56.98 (+36.54%).

I have written quite a bit on Porsche (see for example this post or do a google search, hehe). Porsche preferred and VW preferred are currently my favourite auto stocks.

still "outperform".

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#25) On January 30, 2010 at 12:04 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#19) On February 27, 2009 at 3:08 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: BAC - 4.02 - outperform

#20) On February 27, 2009 at 3:26 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: GE - 8.60 - outperform

BAC closed on 01/29/10 at $15.18 (+277.61), GE closed on 01/29/10 at $16.08 (+86.98%).

Both still "outperform".

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#26) On January 30, 2010 at 12:12 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#21) On March 01, 2009 at 1:24 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: VIGN - 6.61 - outperform

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Open Text Completes Vignette Acquisition

Open Text Will Continue to Support Vignette Products to Meet the Full Range of Web Content Management Needs

Waterloo, ON - 2009-07-21 - Open Text Corporation (NASDAQ: OTEX, TSX: OTC), a global leader in Enterprise Content Management (ECM), today announced that it has completed the acquisition of all of the issued and outstanding shares of Vignette Corporation (NASDAQ: VIGN). The acquisition has now received approval by Vignette's stockholders.

...

Merger Agreement
Pursuant to the terms of the Merger Agreement, each outstanding share of Vignette common stock was converted into the right to receive $8.00 in cash, without interest and 0.1447 shares of Open Text common stock. Open Text will issue approximately 3.45 million shares of its common stock in connection with the Merger. Based on the closing price of $36.84 per share of Open Text common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on July 20, 2009, the last trading day before the closing of the Merger, the aggregate value of the consideration paid in connection with the Merger was approximately $321 million.

Open Text expects to incur restructuring charges associated with this merger and will disclose, on Monday July 27, 2009, estimates of the range of amounts expected to be incurred in connection with the restructuring initiative in a Form 8-K filing. Management will provide further information regarding the future plans and prospects of the combined company when it provides fiscal year-end results on August 20, 2009.

...

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#483) On May 02, 2009 at 5:04 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: OTEX - 32.91 - outperform

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#27) On January 30, 2010 at 12:22 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

continued here ...

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#28) On February 12, 2010 at 2:46 PM, Portis403 (< 20) wrote:

Absolutely wonderful post, thank you for your opinions, and congrats on a job well done! 

 

As of recently I'm looking to invest a bit in stocks, do you have any suggestions or opinions? I' m currently looking towards EBIX, CSR, and SLW

 

Thanks again 

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#29) On February 12, 2010 at 3:14 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

I lost some of my impetus in the parts following this one. When I am done with the first round of my "revisits" I might add some info ...

"in at out"

"in and out"

I might have to deeper look at it.

I might have to take a deeper look at it.

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#30) On April 17, 2010 at 8:56 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

as I wrote in comment #27 above.

continued here ...

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