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Empirical Evidence The Crisis is Accelerating

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April 15, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SLV , UDN


 Here is empirical evidence that the crisis is accelerating despite the government intervention:
   

Industrial Production: March revised IP declined 12.8% vs a 11.8% in February. Q1 of 2009 IP Plunged to 20% compared to 11% in Q4 2008. Retail Sales decrease accelerated in march to 9.01% from 7.95% in Fedbruary.  

Trade Deficit: Narrowed less then the drop in industrial production, this may show up as a positive on the gdp but those not familiar with the calculation should know it is very arbitrary. (for example if we go out and riot and destroy buildings, the cost of rebuilding will be included in GDP, even though there was no growth). 

Unemployment- We all know it increased, thus needing no further explanation The CPI actually grew at a 2.6% annual rate if you calculate the way it was calculated pre-1990 and 7.5% using the 1980 calculation.

 

 

 Those who have read some of my posts know I have a strong conviction that the Austrian School of thought is the only real economics. The massive amounts of dollars being printed which will become an inflationary depression, which this is beginning to show. It is impossible to avoid a severe stagflation and now is the time to buy gold/

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 16, 2009 at 6:16 PM, XMFSinchiruna (28.57) wrote:

Have a gander at data from the railroad sector:

http://railfax.transmatch.com/

My article on CSX's earnings sounds the alarm

The deterioration of the American economy is reaching frightening proportions, and the rate of decline is dizzying. 

China's economy is the only one with the scale and momentum to find relative strength, and empirical evidence is mounting quickly that decoupling -- which so recently was presumed a debunked hypothesis -- is indeed taking place. China's growth won't be epic anytime soon, but compared to our decline it will be hotter than a pile of molten thermite.

To those who've already read the links above, please forgive the repetition. I don't mean to spam, but rather feel a sense of duty to warn my fellow Fools about the empirical evidence that I'm coming across in my research. Taken in sum, the conclusions are unavoidable.

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