Ended my CAPS short of Mexican Airports
For what it's worth, I decided to end my successful year-long CAPS short of the Mexican airport operators this morning. Yes, the traffic numbers for the immediate future will indeed be terrible and yes I do anticipate another move downward by the market in the not so distant future...but I think that I have squeezed most of the blood out of my shorts of these stocks at this point.
I have been making an effort to be even more forward-looking with my picks of late. The economy is terrible and likely will not improve any time soon, airlines are hurting, to the best of my knowledge the violence in Mexico has not gone away, and the swine flu is preventing any travelers who could afford to vacation in Mexico and were not afraid of the violence from going there for now...but I don't envision these companies going away and outside of an attack by aliens I don't see how things can get much worse for them.
As has been mentioned millions of times, they have huge moats and pay solid dividends, two traits that I like very much. I am sticking by my forecast that the swine flu will amount to a whole lot of nothing and believe that there's not much more downside left in OMAB, PAC, and ASR.
That's my $0.02.