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dwot (99.55)

Ending Picks

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March 17, 2008 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: ETE

I constantly look to end picks on caps, and one I found today to end and say good-bye to is Energy Transfer Equity, L.P. (ETE).

I picked it to underperform and what has happened since I picked it?  According to the screen I get on it the S&P is down 15.98% since I picked it.  It is down 16.90%.  Hopefully it will close green for me.

For me caps is a game.  I am Canadian and it is American stocks and I'd have to have a heck of a good reason to be compelled to invest in the American stock exchange right now.   I pretty much exited all of my American positions in the fall of 2006 on fears of the US dollar declining. 

Right now it seems that the Canadian dollar is closely following the US dollar in declining and although I think Canada faces some serious challenges, Canada's debt simply isn't anywhere close to as serious as the US.  Further, we've recently been though the pain of trying to reduce government debt and Canadians see the link of having to pay for what you ask for.  Our government is hardly getting into the bail out game, as Ontario's manufacturing sector has bitterly complained.  Americans have asked and asked and asked and have yet to pay for it.  I think longer term the Canadian dollar further strengthens relative to the US dollar.

So, I stay away from American stocks and just play a game here.

I expected ETE to go down, it has, only just barely faster than the S&P has tanked.  Certainly if you'd shorted it you'd have done well, however, in this game, it is a barely break even proposition.  Was there a specific reason I picked ETE?  If there was, I don't remember it and I simply think this one is now to close to predict one way or the other what it is going to do.  So, I am out. 

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 17, 2008 at 12:29 PM, Tastylunch (29.97) wrote:

 I know what you mean

 that's why I always write a pitch for stock I pick (I don't really write them for other people), I'd easily forget why I picked most of them, 200 stocks is a lot to watch.

about ETE though if it's only down 1.02 points more than S&P won't closing it hurt your accuracy? I thought CAPS only counts picks towards accuracy  that are +5.

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#2) On March 17, 2008 at 12:33 PM, dwot (99.55) wrote:

Nope, didn't close green.  S&P was showing down 16.43% when it closed and the stock down 14.37% when it closed.  Interesting the whole time I've watched it since I hit to end this one the price has not exceeded $29.25, and there was only one minute that it hit that price, the rest has been $29.17 or less and somehow it ends at $29.43.

It was $28.90 when I hit to end. 

Time to send a bug report. 

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#3) On March 17, 2008 at 12:35 PM, dwot (99.55) wrote:

Tastylunch I believe caps counts as neutral if you close between 0 and 5% in your accuracy.

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#4) On March 17, 2008 at 12:46 PM, dwot (99.55) wrote:

Yes mandrake, Canada will be hard hit, but the size of the hit is ultimately about debt.  Canada paid back $100 billion of debt, which if you consider population differences is equivalent to about $1 trillion for the US.  The US increased debt by about $4 trillion since 2003.  Canada already has a budget with far more room for trouble, and I suspect we will go to a deficit budget, but one that will be far easier to turn around. 

I think Reich says things well:

http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2008/03/why-feds-bailout-wont-work-part-2.html 

I think many world resources are stretched and that is where Canada will come out a way ahead of the game long run.  We've got one of the lowest population densities in the world which means we can leverage those resources per person the most. 

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#5) On March 17, 2008 at 12:52 PM, LordZ wrote:

Should Canada ever get invaded or run into massive chaos, I'm sure you'll be glad as heck that us Americans are here to help.

If you look the US is the strongest financial institution, when the US sneezes most of the world catches pneumonia.

However just as soon as the US market regains it strength, you will see a world wide surge, thats why i find it funny of those who would wish us ruin.

 

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#6) On March 17, 2008 at 1:11 PM, dwot (99.55) wrote:

Lordz, you'd probably be surprized at how often Canadians say something like "if Americans want what we have they'll just come and take it." 

What makes you think the rest of the world wishes ruin.  The rest of the world is simply tired of being bullied. Report this comment
#7) On March 17, 2008 at 1:27 PM, mandrake66 (95.56) wrote:

Lordz, you'd probably be surprized at how often Canadians say something like "if Americans want what we have they'll just come and take it."

We've grown more cautious since we took hockey. Once bitten, twice shy. ;)

I'm guessing you're spot on about Can $ vs U.S. $ for the foreseeable future. I think you'd be relatively safe with large U.S. multinationals who can hedge their own currency exposures, and debt-free small-cap growth stocks will likely remain good bets once the stock markets stabilize. It's hard to imagine where a safe refuge lies right now. While the outlook for the U.S. is very ugly, I can't believe it will fail to spread far and wide. Mexico and Canada will be hit hard, Europe and Japan also. We'll get to see how well developing nations have insulated themselves. I'm ready for surprises on this score, either good or bad.

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#8) On March 17, 2008 at 1:39 PM, mickeyc21 (31.13) wrote:

LordZ once again showing why we look stupid to the rest of the world.

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#9) On March 17, 2008 at 3:43 PM, LordZ wrote:

Naa I would be surprised to hear that Canadians feel like they should fear their neighbor. Although I do love Canada's beer, rest assured that you won't have to worry about me putting on my armour and running across the border and raping or pillaging.

Instead I can simply go to the store and buy some beer if I choose to. Wow Mickey has yet another disparging statement.

How nice. All i was trying to say is that when theres trouble in the world, you can usually count on the US to offer a helping hand.

Remember when that wave and tsunami killed so many people around christmas, the US was first to come to aid.

Similiarly many countries have prospered based upon all the imports  they export to us.

However even the most mighty fall, everyone falls at least once.

 

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#10) On March 17, 2008 at 6:11 PM, dwot (99.55) wrote:

LordZ

I wouldn't bring up the Dec 26th 2004 tsunami.  The US was truly slow in its response to that disaster.  That was one of the largest disaster in living memory and the US gave 10c per person donation to start and only raised the donation after significant well-earned negative news on the issue.  In the end, the long term support worked out to about $3.20/person.  Canada's support worked out to about $11/person, but the Canadian dollar was much weaker then, so it was more like about $15/person in Canadian dollars.

I am not surprised you think Americans were good citizens in that event, your media certainly painted Americans as generous, yet I was crunching the numbers at 10c per person and I was not impressed.  I so distinctly remember your media being defensive over the world criticism at the initial response.  I would not have been able to express any kind of pride in Canada what-so-ever had we responded like that. 

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